#Weather Update TS1204 #Butchoy

TS1204 Tropical Storm (loc. Butchoy) #Guchol is currently moving WNW at 22km/h with gustiness of up to 75km/h is intensifying 1475km E of Leyte and is expected to continue to head WNW and will enter the Philippine area of responsibility noon tomorrow.

It will intensify to Category 1 strength on Friday noon as it approaches east of Bicol. It will continue to gain strength as it passes along the warm Philippine sea and may intensify to Category 2 strength near Casiguran, Aurora by Saturday.

There is a possibility of landfall along northern tip of Luzon or it may veer NNW before it reaches Cagayan by Sunday. I will make an update regarding this on Friday.

Effect on Luzon including Metro Manila is scattered rain showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday afternoon as it pulls in Southwest monsoon. Rainfall is expected to range from low to high.
It will be rainy accompanied by squalls starting tomorrow and over the weekend.

Disclaimer: Weather analysis brought to you by Ervin M. Data coming from MTSAT2 Satellite as of 06-13-12 7PM PHT. I provide weather updates for general public viewing as a hobby. I am not responsible for its ultimate use in forecasting of tropical cyclones. Due to this, timely manner of delivering data is not a guarantee and is not advised to be used for life and death decisions.
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