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Chris Stehlik
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As of today, the second seal has been broken and a rider on a red horse has come forth Donald Trump is essentially the guaranteed Republican nominee for president. Let me give some predictions of what's going to happen next:

(1) People will start to argue harder and harder that Trump isn't really that bad, and he doesn't actually mean all the things that he says. Even while you'll never hear this from his campaign, it'll be a major theme among commentators, especially those tied to the Republican establishment. 

The main thing driving this will be cognitive dissonance: if you believed that the American public had just nominated a not-particularly-crypto-Nazi, then you would have to conclude that the people around you are either evil or fools, and that's not something nice to think about. But if he's not really that bad, then it's OK. The second thing driving this will be the underlying urge of many disaffected (white, working or middle class) people to support him and the things he actually says; if you've got a narrative where it's not really that bad, it's fine to vote for this, then you can feel more comfortable considering it. And the third thing (affecting mostly professional politicians and media heads) will be simple professional party loyalty; the cost of defection away from a nominated candidate, in terms of career and so on, is just too high.

(2) You will hear a strong campaign from the Republican establishment (not Trump) that Clinton is the Devil and must be beaten. They won't be able to put together a clear story of why; to be honest, almost nobody ever has been able to. It's become so reflexive to see her this way that people have forgotten where it started. (That's not to say that Clinton isn't deeply flawed, but none of those flaws have anything to do with the weird conspiracy theories that will be circulating) 

This is mostly a way for the people in the establishment, the ones with the most dissonance to deal with, to focus themselves on saying "not Clinton" so they don't have to spend too much time saying "yes Trump."

It's going to be an incredibly nasty campaign, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.

(Yes, Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee. I know Sanderistas can come up with arguments until the cows come home about how it's still perfectly statistically possible for him to win 64% of the remaining pledged delegates or somehow convince all the superdelegates to join him but... no. There is no way that actually works. Sanders gets to shift the party platform but he has no serious chance of being the nominee)


And if, God forbid, Trump were to be elected? I suspect that we would find that he is quite an honest man after all, at least insofar as he has no incentive to lie. I suspect that his promises about immigrants will quickly become a priority for him, with a certain amount of reality gating. Things we'd actually see:

(1) Punitive taxes and/or seizure of remittances abroad. This would cause massive economic disruptions all over the world (about $125B per year, most of it going to poor communities) and would probably ultimately be moderated in some way, but not before causing tremendous pain and chaos.

(2) Laws demanding strong proof of citizenship to work, and enforcing severe penalties against employers who violate them. These would cause a different kind of chaos, because a good quarter of citizens don't actually have such strong proof. Presumably offices would be set up to help people get that, and deployment of the law would be staged -- but that assistance would be sharply canted towards white communities. The intent, and effect, of the law would be to cause mass unemployment among Latino and Black communities. This would, indeed, cause many to flee the country, but even more to be dropped into extremely dire straits. I have no idea how this would play out.

(3) Laws enforcing Draconian penalties against anyone who helps people without knowing their immigration status. This would run into actual trouble for Trump once it started to affect better-organized churches; the Vatican may actually end up being a major counterforce, and this might have long-term consequences.

(4) Laws restricting employment of legal immigrants in various ways. Not in service industries, but in places where a demonstration of nativism will be politically useful. This will often be used as a negotiating tactic against businesses.

(5) Actual wall-building might start in a symbolic fashion, but the absurd logistics of it would prevent anything other than a flashy display.

Of course, none of this even starts to deal with his plans to institute trade wars with both China and Mexico (two of our three largest trading partners), or the effects that would happen when the leaders of politically savvy rival countries (e.g., China) realize that he can easily be goaded into foolish moves. Or what might happen if someone else (e.g., Kim Jong Un) tried to rattle sabers; I doubt that he has any deep understanding of just why the US hasn't tried to blow up North Korea in the past. (Answer: we could do it, but in the process South Korea would be turned into rubble, and Japan would probably lose a city or two. And it might escalate into a full regional war.)

So even though I anticipate several months of people telling me how he really isn't that bad, and of the curious experience of seeing a politician's supporters get exasperated and angry ("you're not repeating that old lie again!") when I suggest that their candidate might be honest, I don't think that just because he's the nominee, he's suddenly going to change his white sheets stripes.
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Danielle Goudeau's profile photoEric Tolle's profile photo
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1. That's already happening on the Left- particularly with a Salon article saying he's more liberal than Clinton. Wonkette tore its reasoning apart, naturally.
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Hey Look
How much would a $3/hr raise cost Yelp?

https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160224/yelp10-k.html
"our net revenue was $549.7 million, which represented an increase of 46% from the year ended December 31, 2014,"
so that's good, yeah team!

Let's do math!
If they had 40 employees like Talia Jane and wanted to give them a $3/hr raise (to $15/hr). That would be $3*2000 hrs/yr*40 people =$240,000.yr ($6000 a person)
That's only 0.04% of the net revenue they made that year.
Give 'em 0.04% of the net revenue and keep them around.
How much would an extra $6000 (before tax) help out people like Talia ? (ALOT )

How many employees would you have to have for it to cost 1% of net revenue to give them a $3/hr raise 1% is 5.497 million. Divide that by $6000/yr per person. you get 916 employees. I don't think they have 916 employees answering the phone. (They have 4,000 employees total). Still that would be only 1% of revenue.
Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and related notes appearing elsewhere ...
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Agent Qatar,
A very capable Muslim woman joins the CIA and battles both ISIS terrorists and the prejudices of her own co workers.
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Susannah Paletz's profile photoChris Stehlik's profile photo
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No, but I may,
I'm just very pleased with my Carter/Qatar wordplay.
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An important message from The Oatmeal
http://theoatmeal.com/blog/where_matt
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My friend made a phone game and it's really nifty!!
 
New game! “Choice of the Petal Throne" by Danielle Goudeau, now available on Steam, iOS, and Android. Please reshare this with friends! The more downloads we get in the first week, the higher we'll rank in the App Store. We're also asking our fans to follow us on Steam to show support for interactive fiction on this platform. https://store.steampowered.com/login/?redir=curator/7026798/

In the Empire of the Petal Throne™, will you find glory, or a knife in your back?

"Choice of the Petal Throne" is a 124,000-word interactive fantasy novel by Danielle Goudeau, where your choices control the story. It's entirely text-based--without graphics or sound effects--and fueled by the vast, unstoppable power of your imagination.

M.A.R. Barker's world of Tékumel™ is a fantasy universe like no other, where South American, Middle Eastern, and Indian cultures collide. The princes and princesses of the Tsolyáni empire vie for their father's mystical Petal Throne, tearing the nation apart with civil war and political intrigues.

As a captain in one of their armies, will you play as male or female, gay straight or bi? A brave and forthright soldier, a hedonistic intriguer with a heart of gold, or scheming double agent?

Buy it today!

(Tékumel™ and Empire of the Petal Throne™ are trademarks of M.A.R. Barker and are used with permission of the Tékumel Foundation. For additional information, please visithttp://www.tekumelfoundation.org.)

WHY TEKUMEL?

Author Danielle Goudeau explains,

Tékumel is an amazing setting that encapsulates both the history and the future of table-top gaming. Published in 1975, it blends sword and sorcery, dungeon crawls, war gaming, and meticulous detail with a non-Eurocentric setting, alternative sexuality, and a role for women that manages to be empowering while not blithely ignoring historical reality. Because of this, it lies at the intersection of both the Old School Renaissance movement, and the call for more diversity in gaming.

There is so much to love here. The human society, drawn from India and South America, eschews the standard rugged-individualism of most adventuring parties for a world in which every PC is caught in a web of obligations between their family, their clan, their temple, and their career. The morality springs from an honest exploration of what it would be like for humans to live in a world where incomprehensible omnipotent gods interfered in daily life. The alien races are truly alien, not just humans with some features changed.

What I love most, though, is that this game, the first published RPG setting, has so much of what I see people calling for in modern games. Not just that the PCs all have black hair and brown skin and don’t live in Ye Olde Europe. Homosexuality and bisexuality are discussed openly in the books and accepted within the cultures, as is polyamory. The role of women, is in my opinion, portrayed brilliantly, with women pressured into traditional family roles, but legally allowed to declare themselves the equals of men. This lets me play the female general, governor, or bad-ass scholar-priestess, while showcasing the more rigid gender roles in historical societies.

For all these reasons, and because any game with a table discussing regional variations in architecture is just awesome, take time this year, on the 40th anniversary of its publication to play some Tékumel. Find a game at your local convention, or buy a source-book and run a session for your friends. Play it using Béthorm or Empire of the Petal Throne or your rules-light system of choice. See where our roots are as a hobby and think about where we’re going.
Rise to glory on the battlefields of Tékumel™, M.A.R Barker's masterpiece fantasy world where Mesoamerican, Middle Eastern, and Indian cultures collide!
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It's not a phone game only, it's a browser game and can also be downloaded from steam. Any device, really. 
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German growly yet pro compassion and minorities music video.
https://www.facebook.com/polandball/videos/10156746220205483/

Yes, from there, couldn't find another place. If you can, please post link and I will edit it.
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This is a very interesting concept that is an alternative to current approach of welfare and poverty reduction. Unconditional Basic Income. Where everyone gets enough for basic expenses just because. Doesn't penalize looking for work, allows people to take care of kids or older relatives without enduring true poverty.

https://kpfa.org/episode/against-the-grain-april-5-2016/
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Anne Faye's profile photoChris Stehlik's profile photo
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Island Vixen posted a related article on how Panama Papers show we could totally afford this If hidden money was taxed.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/07/panama-papers-taxes-universal-basic-income-public-services
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1 Corinthians 13

   #democrats  
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Woman's World Cup !
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Women in international competition!
Horribly corrupt organization!
CONFLICTING FEELS! 
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My always stylish and well attired friends Sam and Monica are opening a vintage clothing store. They are the best people for it. Please check out their kickstarter. http://kck.st/1CU8HNl
Sam Simmons & Monica Lenk is raising funds for OverAttired Vintage Fashion on Kickstarter! OverAttired Vintage Store and Event Space in Oakland
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We have been using Automated Response for well over 14 years. They are easy to work with. We just drop off our shredding at their place and they do the rest. If it's a smaller amount we can actually watch them do the shredding. Friendly customer service. Prices are reasonable. Chris Stehlik KPFA Radio
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Dr Kwan is a skilled periodontist. He works at getting your gums healthy and keeping your original teeth if at all possible. The hygienists are good at cleaning. They are quick and pain free.
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