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Ivan Kitov
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On decreasing rate of economic growth in the USA
We published a book and a few papers [e.g., 1, 2, 3] on
economic growth. There are numerous plots demonstrating the decelerating rate
of real economic growth in developed countries. The long-term component of real
GDP increase is very simple – annual increm...

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Trump - a peaceful path to a more balanced world
Some commentators say that Trump puts an end of global order.  Not getting into  details of a number of wars, global terrorism and tension between West and East, I would guess that the " global order"  was not about peace and dignity but just an opinion of ...

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Trump and real economy
I have no doubt that real economic growth in the USA  does not depend on presidential opinion and action. On average, the US will be growing at a rate of about 2% in the long run. In 2017, a recession is possible, but it has no connection to Trump.  What Tr...

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trump us world
Trump. He was elected by citizens. His power is an alloy of poverty and billionaires.
His presidency is controversial.  Or dialectical. Poor will get poorer. Rich gets richer. Middle class does not like him. Mourning.. They
lost the country. Some ...

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Recession may hit New Zealand in 2017, but at a five-year horizon real economic growth is about 2% per year
In 2010, we published a paper in the Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, which predicted real GDP per capita, rGDPpc, in several developed countries. Corresponding working paper was published in 2009 and covered the period before 2007. The evolution of rG...

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GDP implicit price deflator in Germany will grow
In this blog, we introduced several models predicting inflation and unemployment in Germany in 2009 and 2010. These two posts presented a shorter version of our extended  paper published in 2007 on the dependence of the CPI, GDP deflator  (DGDP) and rate of...

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The French economy needs ”helicopter money” to boost labor force growth and avoid deflation
2013, we published a paper “ Does Banque de France control inflation and unemployment?” We
demonstrated that the French economy would likely sink into a longer period of
deflation or very low inflation rate after 2013. This is an excerpt from the paper d...

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As we predicted in 2010,a longer deflation period has started in Australia
Six years ago we wrote a paper on price
inflation and unemployment in Australia. Here, we compare our predictions
against measurements. Concluding this paper we made a projection into 2050: “As a final
remark on the evolution inflation (DGDP) and unemployme...

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In the long run, the rate of unemployment in Canada will be growing. A four year update.
Here, I continue
presenting cases of accurate predictions based on the link between real GDP and
unemployment, which is a modified Okun’s law in an integral form. This is a four-year
update for Canada. The model prediction is getting better and better! Cana...

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The Okun's integral law for Australia revisited
Three and a half years ago, I reported that Australia gives the best example of accurate
quantitative prediction of unemployment in developed countries and therefore I felt satisfaction. Historically, we published a
paper  on Okun's in developed countries i...
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