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Alexander Kruel
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www.kruel.co

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This is why the European Union is necessary and people like Trump and Putin desire its demise: it's an opponent that they cannot subdue; powerful enough to stand up to monopolies like Google.

The EU is not perfect and needs to be reformed but it is an asset, not a liability.

Original tweet: https://twitter.com/XiXiDu/status/1019939915847659521

See also: The Case for Breaking Up Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google https://esquire.com/news-politics/a15895746/bust-big-tech-silicon-valley/
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Link list(9):

- Natural Selection in Modern Humans (UK; N ≈ 500,000): Evidence of directional and stabilizing selection in contemporary humans http://pnas.org/content/early/2017/12/12/1707227114

- Long Childhood, Family Networks, and Cultural Exclusivity: Missing Links in the Debate over Human Group Selection and Altruism https://dropbox.com/s/5g1ipa0v0tfnz4c/2018-gat.pdf?dl=0

- Q: why do (non-Muslim) Copts tend to have higher socio-economic status than Muslims? A: historical self-selection by low-SES Copts into Islam to avoid poll taxes --> better-off remained Copts in long run https://cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/on-the-road-to-heaven-taxation-conversions-and-the-copticmuslim-socioeconomic-gap-in-medieval-egypt/3407860149F95ACC44E489D1D7F526FB (via @jaredcrubin)

- Is national mental sport ability a sign of intelligence? An analysis of the top players of 12 mental sports https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1g0qxewJSO80KEWDzprGehnbOc3oIMxj7Dq0ud4O7Kd8/edit#slide=id.g3d05def343_0_91

- Potential DNA damage from CRISPR has been ‘seriously underestimated,’ study finds https://statnews.com/2018/07/16/crispr-potential-dna-damage-underestimated/

- People found one and the same aphorisms less wise when they were attributed to an ideological rival group. https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103117304493

- To ban or not to ban? Clinical geneticists' views on the regulation of direct-to-consumer genetic testing https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3432806/

- The Inequality Demagogues https://quillette.com/2018/07/17/the-inequality-demagogues/

- List of grenade attacks in Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_Sweden
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Link list (10):

- Artificial neural networks now able to help reveal a brain’s structure: Digital image analysis steps up to the task of reliably reconstructing individual nerve cells https://mpg.de/12130750/neural-networks-connectome

- What machine learning means for software development: "Machine learning is already making code more efficient: Google’s Jeff Dean has reported that 500 lines of TensorFlow code has replaced 500,000 lines of code in Google Translate." https://oreilly.com/ideas/what-machine-learning-means-for-software-development

- Berkeley researchers teach machines to dream imaginary goals and solutions for better RL: Visual Reinforcement Learning with Imagined Goals https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.04742

- Microsoft calls for government-led regulation of artificial intelligence technology https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2018/07/13/facial-recognition-technology-the-need-for-public-regulation-and-corporate-responsibility/

- Medical AI Safety: We have a problem. https://lukeoakdenrayner.wordpress.com/2018/07/11/medical-ai-safety-we-have-a-problem/

- Psychologists admit that by pushing "implicit bias" they have foisted a big cash destruction machine on society that won't go away easily. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2973892

- Raven's Matrices are as valid for Africans as they are for non-Africans. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0965-075X.2004.00276.x

- Urban mobility and neighborhood isolation in America’s 50 largest cities http://pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/03/1802537115

- Can Economists and Humanists Ever Be Friends? https://newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/23/can-economists-and-humanists-ever-be-friends

- Elon Musk called a British diver from the Thai cave rescue a 'pedo guy' — then deleted the tweets hours later with no explanation https://businessinsider.de/elon-musk-british-cave-diver-pedo-feud-thai-cave-rescue-2018-7?r=US&IR=T
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Are you doing altruism right?
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Link list (9):

- Set of videos on building a programmable 8-bit computer from scratch on breadboards using only simple logic gates https://eater.net/

- Also check this awesome book: The Elements of Computing Systems - Building a Modern Computer from First Principles https://www.nand2tetris.org/

- There is not very much genetic diversity in China and there is a great deal of genetic diversity in India. https://gnxp.com/WordPress/2018/07/15/india-vs-china-genetically-diverse-vs-homogeneous/

- Swift Gene-Editing Method May Revolutionize Treatments for Cancer and Infectious Diseases: Scientists report that they have discovered a way to tweak genes in the body’s immune cells by using electrical fields https://nytimes.com/2018/07/11/health/gene-editing-cancer.html

- Embryo selection for intelligence: A cost-benefit analysis of the marginal cost of IVF-based embryo selection for intelligence and other traits https://gwern.net/Embryo-selection

- Embryo editing for intelligence: A cost-benefit analysis of CRISPR-based editing for intelligence https://gwern.net/Embryo-editing

- There is a water reservoir comparable in size to all the oceans combined is hidden deep in Earth's mantle https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ypwvmy/theres-an-ocean-deep-inside-the-earth?utm_source=vicefbus

- Death, taxes, and bias: Meta-analytical evidence for robustness of sex differences in stereoscopically administered 3D spatial ability tasks http://programme.exordo.com/isir2018/delegates/presentation/42/

- PISA Worldwide Ranking – average score of math, science and reading http://factsmaps.com/pisa-worldwide-ranking-average-score-of-math-science-reading/
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"Genomic Selection in Dairy Cattle: The USDA Experience", Wiggans et al 2017: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/30ad/542d089d8291b850fd658f1d1194bfe31529.pdf

"Genomic selection has revolutionized dairy cattle breeding. Since 2000, assays have been developed to genotype large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at relatively low cost. The first commercial SNP genotyping chip was released with a set of 54,001 SNPs in December 2007. Over 15,000 genotypes were used to determine which SNPs should be used in genomic evaluation of US dairy cattle. Official USDA genomic evaluations were first released in January 2009 for Holsteins and Jerseys, in August 2009 for Brown Swiss, in April 2013 for Ayrshires, and in April 2016 for Guernseys. Producers have accepted genomic evaluations as accurate indications of a bull's eventual daughter-based evaluation. The integration of DNA marker technology and genomics into the traditional evaluation system has doubled the rate of genetic progress for traits of economic importance, decreased generation interval, increased selection accuracy, reduced previous costs of progeny testing, and allowed identification of recessive lethals.

...Prior to genomics, bulls at approximately one year of age typically entered a progeny-test program as a method to determine their breeding value. Bulls were at least five years old when their semen could be marketed based on progeny-test results. The combination of massive historical phenotypic data, breeding organizations able to invest in technology, data processing and evaluation infrastructure, and a long generation interval made dairy cattle an ideal candidate for genomic selection.

...Linkage relationships between genetic markers and quantitative trait loci (QTL) provide genomic information that can be used with marker-assisted selection for traits of interest (3). Through the early and mid-2000s, such selection had only modest commercial success for livestock because of the cost of generating appropriate data sets as well as difficulties in the identification of major genes related to quantitative traits (4, 5). Traits of economic importance in dairy cattle usually are controlled by many genes with small effects (6). A large amount of data is needed to estimate those effects accurately, as well as dense markers to track the marker-QTL association across families.
In the mid- to late 2000s, assays were developed to genotype large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at relatively low cost. Although SNPs usually have only two alleles, the large number available across the entire genome allows tracking the inheritance of short chromosomal segments. Genome-wide selection had been proposed (7), but the resources needed to make the required DNA tools were not possible until the Bovine Genome Project was initiated in 2003 (8). To add to the SNPs identified from the Hereford genome-sequencing animal, low-depth sequencing from other breeds was used to generate information for SNP assay development. In 2005, ParAllele BioScience (now part of Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA) released the MegAllele Genotyping Bovine 10,000-SNP Panel with 10,410 SNP markers (9). Despite immediate interest in using this assay as a platform for testing genomic selection in accessible commercial dairy populations, the SNP markers were not well distributed across the genome in relation to linkage disequilibrium, and the panel was not well suited for the purpose of genomic selection. The need for a better SNP assay based on an informative SNP marker within each block of linkage disequilibrium across the entire genome was recognized (10); approximately 250,000 well-distributed SNPs would be needed to capture all linkage-disequilibrium blocks for Holsteins (9).

...Since genomic evaluations became official in 2009, genotypes that are usable for genetic evaluations have been received for over 1 million animals (Table 2). The availability of lower-cost chips has made whole-herd genotyping common and has led to a preponderance of females among the genotyped animals (Figure 1). From May 2015 through April 2016, almost 359,000 low-density chip genotypes (319,918 Holstein and 38,883 Jersey) received by USDA were usable for the calculation of genetic evaluations; 91% of those genotypes were for females (27). With the popularity of genotyping chips, SNPs are gradually replacing microsatellites for parentage verification. As of April 2016, eight AI organizations, four breed associations, three genotyping laboratories, and the National Association of Animal Breeders had met quality certification requirements and been designated by CDCB as nominators of animals to receive genomic evaluations (28).

...Estimation of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism Effects
The effect of each SNP on a traditional evaluation is estimated for over 30 traits (Table 3). The traditional evaluations are deregressed to make the data more like individual records. Then the deregressed traditional evaluations are regressed on each of the SNP genotypes (19), where the genotypes are expressed as the count for one of the alleles (0, 1, or 2). The solution is the effect on each trait from replacing one allele in the SNP genotype with the other allele. In addition to individual SNP effects, a polygenic effect is estimated to capture genetic variation not accounted for by SNPs (19).
Most SNPs have small effects that are distributed evenly across all chromosomes but are not necessarily the same for all dairy cattle breeds. The largest effects for milk and fat were found on chromosome 14 for Holsteins and Jerseys (but not for Ayrshires and Brown Swiss); those effects were associated with the DGAT1 (diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase 1) gene (34). An increased effect for protein was also found on chromosome 14 for Jerseys. Methods to visualize SNP effects have been developed (35), and Manhattan plots of the effects for all evaluated SNPs are available through CDCB for traits of economic importance depending on breed (36). Figure 2 shows a Manhattan plot for SNP effects included in December 2015 US genomic evaluations for Holstein net merit, a genetic-economic selection index for lifetime profitability based on yield, conformation, health, and fertility traits (37, 38)

...In May 2016, reliabilities for official predicted transmitting abilities for milk yield based on all genotype densities ranged from 73% to 79% for 96% of young Holstein bulls (Figure 3). The increase in evaluation reliability of Holsteins from including genomic information (Table 4) can be observed by comparing August 2011 traditional parent averages for young bulls without daughter information, their August 2011 genomic evaluations that include SNP and polygenic effects (estimated from the August 2011 reference population and traditional parent average), and their December 2014 daughter deviations deregressed from traditional evaluations. Mean reliability for August 2011 genomic evaluations of young Holstein bulls across all yield, health, and fertility traits was 68%, and reliability gains over parent average ranged from 8 (sire stillbirth rate) to 59 (fat percentage) percentage units. A similar Holstein cutoff study conducted in September 2014 for heifer and cow conception rates (M.E. Tooker, unpublished data) reported reliability gains of 25 and 38 percentage points, respectively.
Coefficients of determination (Table 4) are a measure of the relationship between August 2011 evaluations and December 2014 deregressed daughter deviations. The coefficients of determination for Holsteins ranged from 6 (daughter calving ease) to 31 (protein yield) for parent average and from 18 (sire stillbirth rate) to 73 (fat percentage) for genomic evaluation. For both parent average and genomic evaluation, coefficients of determination were lower than respective reliabilities because reliability adjusts for differing amounts of information (error variance) and because selection had occurred in the genotyped population.
A regression coefficient close to one indicates that a one-unit difference in the genomic evaluation results in a one-unit change in the trait. Holstein coefficients for regression of December 2014 deregressed daughter deviations on August 2011 genomic evaluations (Table 4)ranged from 0.71 (feet and legs composite) to 1.32 (daughter pregnancy rate). Bias in Holstein genomic evaluations was measured by subtracting August 2011 genomic evaluations from December 2014 deregressed daughter deviations (Table 4). A negative value indicates that the August 2011 genomic evaluation overestimated the December 2014 deregressed daughter deviation. Genomic evaluation underestimated later daughter deviation for only two traits (somatic cell score and daughter pregnancy rate). No bias was found for 6 of the 31 Holstein traits.

...Effect Of Genomic Selection On The Dairy Industry
Genomic selection has profoundly affected genetic improvement of dairy cattle. Producers have accepted genomic evaluations as accurate indications of a bull’s eventual daughter-based evaluation, and over half of matings are to young bulls with genomic evaluations. The AI organizations no longer rely on progeny-test herds to determine which bulls to market, and they purchase young bulls based on genomic evaluations. Both heifers and bulls are genotyped usually before they are one month old, and some embryos are genotyped before implantation. Herds that supply young bulls have had to specialize further to be competitive. With the nearly exclusive focus on high evaluations, embryo donors are highly selected, have genomic evaluations themselves, may have been purchased at high cost, and likely are virgin heifers. Genomic evaluations have reduced the concern about bias in the evaluations of top cows because the cow’s own performance is not part of the genomic evaluation for a virgin heifer.

...The benefit of genomics is greatest for traits with low heritability and ones that can be observed only late in life (such as longevity) because the increase in reliability provided by genomics is greatest for those traits (41). For cows, a genomic evaluation typically will have a higher reliability than would be achieved from their own records and has the advantage of being available shortly after birth. The industry requested weekly genomic evaluations because they are perceived as sufficiently accurate to select future replacements and allow culling of other females, thereby avoiding rearing costs.

...One additional technology that has great potential for changing the direction and intensity of selection is the use of nucleases to edit the genome (50). Obvious candidates for application of this technology are editing elite genetics within the horned dairy breeds for polledness to address an animal welfare issue (51) and introducing natural adaptations to thermal stress discovered in Senepol cattle, a polled beef breed developed in the tropics (52). Polling dairy animals through precision crossbreeding or editing has already been demonstrated (53). Of course, this technology could also be used to fix additive traits such as milk production, which would greatly accelerate genetic progress by modifying multiple quantitative trait nucleotides in a single generation across multiple sire lines (54). The potential for nonmeiotic allele introgression or precision breeding to change methods of genomic selection and genetic improvement strategies employed by producers is tremendous. The actual commercial application of this technology could happen rapidly. However, it may be dependent on resolving inconsistencies between government regulatory policies on food additive and drug definitions and continuing consumer acceptance of food products that already are generally recognized as safe, which are alleles currently present in the genomes of food animals from natural selection or traditional livestock breeding."
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This kind of nation state interference is an issue that should transcend party affiliation and identity politics, irregardless of whether one's ingroup happens to benefit from it. Taking it lightly, or ignoring it, will just encourage more of it, from adversaries who might instead support the outgroup.

Of course, the outgroup might also bear some responsibility if they make it impossible for you to take this seriously without risking to lose too much legitimacy.

In such situations there needs to be cooperation and compromises where everyone can keep face while fighting a common enemy.

Original tweet: https://twitter.com/StevenLHall1/status/1017816751311020033?s=19
Background: 12 Russian Agents Indicted in Mueller Investigation https://nytimes.com/2018/07/13/us/politics/mueller-indictment-russian-intelligence-hacking.html
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Germany vs. France
(CO2 emissions per unit of energy)
Germany: 472 g per kWh
France 43 g per kWh

That’s more than 10(!) times more!

Source: https://electricitymap.org
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Link list (9):

- Automating Drug Discoveries Using Computer Vision https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/07/automating-drug-discoveries-using.html

- Conditional Neural Processes: inspired by the flexibility of stochastic processes; structured as neural networks; trained via gradient descent. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.01613

- Inside China’s Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and Lots of Cameras https://nytimes.com/2018/07/08/business/china-surveillance-technology.html

- Hominin occupation of the Chinese Loess Plateau since about 2.1 million years ago https://nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0299-4 - "Mammalian Value Systems" (as a starting point for human value system model created by IRL agent) https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.08289

- The Loudest Sound Ever Heard: It was heard 3,000 miles away; shattered ear-drums of people 40 miles away. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2018/07/13/krakatoa-sound-wave/

- Study finds discrimination in favour of men in female-dominated subjects, but in favour of women in male-dominated subjects (N = 100,000) http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6298/474

- Scarlett Johansson vilified for playing role of trans man in a movie, columnist fired for defending her https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2018/07/13/scarlett-johansson-vilified-for-playing-role-of-trans-man-in-a-movie-columnist-fired-for-defending-her/

- Did the Enlightenment Give Rise to Racism? https://liberalcurrents.com/did-the-enlightenment-give-rise-to-racism/
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Incredible: this anti-Trump journalist yells ‘I’m a Communist, You Idiot’ at Piers Morgan: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jNFOVkB6JjQ

I'd rather support Trump than an adherent of an ideology that killed 100 million people in the 20th century.

See also this post: I've been warning about a radicalization of the left for years https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10160704640690637
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