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+James Miller writes quite negatively about the impact of sexbots, but omits to mention that they also have the obvious huge upside of, well, offering people the possibility of having good, safe sex whenever. (Maybe he considered that too obvious to mention?) That seems like it could quite possibly outweigh all the downsides.
Also, he neglects the possibility that once men have an opportunity to more easily satisfy their sexual desires and become less needy, this might lead to reduced sexual harassment as well as less desperation for sex, actually making it more easy for people to get into relationships as there are more people who no longer give off that desperation vibe. Still, his analysis of sexbot's societal impact is thought-provoking:
"Dilbert creator and blog writer Scott Adams wrote, “I asked how many guys would have sex with a robot if it was indistinguishable from a hot human woman. About 95 percent of the hetero guys said they would. The other 5 percent expressed a strong preference for lying.”325 In light of the divorce statistics in the United States, sexbots would especially appeal to men concerned about the financial devastation that divorce can bring.
"My guess is that we will have robots that look exactly like people before we will have robots that act just as people do. Consequently, the more weight you give to appearance when picking a mate, the sooner you will find sexbots to be a superior substitute to real people. Since, on average, men are more superficial in their sexual desires than women, initially sexbots will take more men than women out of the dating pool.
"Cheap sexbots would harm an economy by causing men to put less effort into their careers. Economist Eric Gould has estimated that “if there were no returns to career choices in the marriage market, men would tend to work less, study less, and choose blue-collar jobs over white-collar jobs.”326 A government, however, could combat this negative economic incentive effect by imposing a higher tax on sexbots based on the higher the “quality” of the sexbot, so men would still have an incentive to work hard to acquire a high-quality “mate.”
"Widespread sexually transmitted diseases would increase sexbot use.327 I can imagine the government of a country racked by an epidemic of STDs giving away sexbots. A nation might also employ this strategy to reduce teen pregnancies.
"The downside of sexbots for men is that, at least for a while, they won’t be able to produce children. Men who want children and sexbots could, however, still raise a child with a woman, or hire a surrogate to help produce a kid. Sexbots would likely increase utilization of eugenics technology by further separating reproduction from mating, making sexbots particularly attractive to pro-eugenics nations like China.
"I predict that the Chinese government will enthusiastically embrace sexbots. Besides the eugenics benefits, sexbots would solve China’s woman shortage problem. China’s one-child policy combined with its citizens’ preferences for having at least one son has caused many Chinese parents to seek sex-selective abortions. A 2005 population survey estimated that among people under twenty, there were thirty-two million more men than women.328 A desire to limit population growth would probably provide another reason for the Chinese government to promote sexbots.
"Opposition to sexbot use will undoubtedly arise. Nations such as Russia and Japan that are concerned about underpopulation will fear the sexbot’s negative effect on reproduction. Politicians might oppose sexbots out of puritanical concerns, although such concerns have proven impotent in restricting Internet pornography. Feminist groups might oppose sexbots because by reducing the percentage of men in the dating pool, sexbots would increase the dating market power of the men still interested in dating humans, and consequently the sexbots would turn the dating market “terms of trade” against women. Lesbian feminists, however, would have less objection to sexbots. Some feminists might actually support sexbots if they believe that widespread use of them would reduce rape.
"The mere expectation of the future development of sexbots could have profound effects on the behavior of socially awkward young boys. Currently, many of these boys put lots of effort into figuring out how to relate to women because they hope to someday win a mate. But if these boys expect that sexbots will someday become excellent substitutes for women, they might stop trying to develop the social skills needed to attract females.
"The best evidence for the future impact of sexbots comes from how pornography is already impacting the sex drives of today’s twentysomethings. As Psychology Today reports, porn is causing a significant number of young, healthy men to no longer be turned on by their real girlfriends.329 Just imagine what will happen (and soon lots and lots of men will be imagining this) when porn becomes “touchable,” three-dimensional, and fully interactive. I predict that for many people, sexbots will be to desire as candy is to hunger."
-- Miller, James D. (2012-10-16). Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer, and More Dangerous World (Kindle Locations 4595-4632). Perseus Books Group. Kindle Edition.
Also, he neglects the possibility that once men have an opportunity to more easily satisfy their sexual desires and become less needy, this might lead to reduced sexual harassment as well as less desperation for sex, actually making it more easy for people to get into relationships as there are more people who no longer give off that desperation vibe. Still, his analysis of sexbot's societal impact is thought-provoking:
"Dilbert creator and blog writer Scott Adams wrote, “I asked how many guys would have sex with a robot if it was indistinguishable from a hot human woman. About 95 percent of the hetero guys said they would. The other 5 percent expressed a strong preference for lying.”325 In light of the divorce statistics in the United States, sexbots would especially appeal to men concerned about the financial devastation that divorce can bring.
"My guess is that we will have robots that look exactly like people before we will have robots that act just as people do. Consequently, the more weight you give to appearance when picking a mate, the sooner you will find sexbots to be a superior substitute to real people. Since, on average, men are more superficial in their sexual desires than women, initially sexbots will take more men than women out of the dating pool.
"Cheap sexbots would harm an economy by causing men to put less effort into their careers. Economist Eric Gould has estimated that “if there were no returns to career choices in the marriage market, men would tend to work less, study less, and choose blue-collar jobs over white-collar jobs.”326 A government, however, could combat this negative economic incentive effect by imposing a higher tax on sexbots based on the higher the “quality” of the sexbot, so men would still have an incentive to work hard to acquire a high-quality “mate.”
"Widespread sexually transmitted diseases would increase sexbot use.327 I can imagine the government of a country racked by an epidemic of STDs giving away sexbots. A nation might also employ this strategy to reduce teen pregnancies.
"The downside of sexbots for men is that, at least for a while, they won’t be able to produce children. Men who want children and sexbots could, however, still raise a child with a woman, or hire a surrogate to help produce a kid. Sexbots would likely increase utilization of eugenics technology by further separating reproduction from mating, making sexbots particularly attractive to pro-eugenics nations like China.
"I predict that the Chinese government will enthusiastically embrace sexbots. Besides the eugenics benefits, sexbots would solve China’s woman shortage problem. China’s one-child policy combined with its citizens’ preferences for having at least one son has caused many Chinese parents to seek sex-selective abortions. A 2005 population survey estimated that among people under twenty, there were thirty-two million more men than women.328 A desire to limit population growth would probably provide another reason for the Chinese government to promote sexbots.
"Opposition to sexbot use will undoubtedly arise. Nations such as Russia and Japan that are concerned about underpopulation will fear the sexbot’s negative effect on reproduction. Politicians might oppose sexbots out of puritanical concerns, although such concerns have proven impotent in restricting Internet pornography. Feminist groups might oppose sexbots because by reducing the percentage of men in the dating pool, sexbots would increase the dating market power of the men still interested in dating humans, and consequently the sexbots would turn the dating market “terms of trade” against women. Lesbian feminists, however, would have less objection to sexbots. Some feminists might actually support sexbots if they believe that widespread use of them would reduce rape.
"The mere expectation of the future development of sexbots could have profound effects on the behavior of socially awkward young boys. Currently, many of these boys put lots of effort into figuring out how to relate to women because they hope to someday win a mate. But if these boys expect that sexbots will someday become excellent substitutes for women, they might stop trying to develop the social skills needed to attract females.
"The best evidence for the future impact of sexbots comes from how pornography is already impacting the sex drives of today’s twentysomethings. As Psychology Today reports, porn is causing a significant number of young, healthy men to no longer be turned on by their real girlfriends.329 Just imagine what will happen (and soon lots and lots of men will be imagining this) when porn becomes “touchable,” three-dimensional, and fully interactive. I predict that for many people, sexbots will be to desire as candy is to hunger."
-- Miller, James D. (2012-10-16). Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer, and More Dangerous World (Kindle Locations 4595-4632). Perseus Books Group. Kindle Edition.
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A usenet poster called Daniel Mocsny, who got linked to a lot in the early 00s Finnish blogosphere, sometimes wrote about sexbots along similar lines. Some of his stuff is collected here: http://myrsky.net/faust3/danimal-archive/
For example:
"Social skills will decline markedly after the advent of sex robots, much like the way electronic calculators degraded arithmetic skills. Because sex robots will finally allow men to be themselves. This will make men even less desirable to real women than they are already, driving men to seek solace with sex robots even more. The cycle will be vicious and I can’t wait for it to start."Oct 27, 2012
+Mikhail Novikov I see what you mean, but isn't false to say "only motivation", it seems true as long as mate attraction is one of the reasons our brain pushes us to do carrers. Reduce the benefits for that thing and ceteris paribus you reduce expected carrer drive.Oct 27, 2012
Mikhail, it's far from the only motivation, but I've certainly personally noticed being somewhat drawn towards various "high-status" careers due to the perk of being more appealing to the opposite sex.Oct 29, 2012
A lot of high status careers are hugely important to the society, though. Maybe not lawyers or musicians, but jobs like politicians, CEOs, entrepreneurs.Oct 29, 2012
Mikhail: But notice that you can also turn that argument around? If doing something because you only have one reason for doing it might not work out, then that implies that it's better to have more reasons for doing it. Like because you enjoy it and because it pays well and it gets you girls.Oct 29, 2012
Right, it's equivalent to "males will have less of a motivation to pursue a career". Sometimes that difference will be enough to tip the balance the other way, sometimes it won't. (Though of course, "pursuing a career" isn't a binary variable - one can make an effort to pursue a career, but a lackluster one.)Oct 30, 2012