Does gut instinct tell you this will prove junk science? .
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- Yeah it sure does.Apr 16, 2012
- Apr 16, 2012
- Jim Lai+1Correlation is not causation. People with better-performing intuitive cognition have Bayesian reason to trust their gut feeling.
Cf., http://www.gladwell.com/blink/index.htmlApr 16, 2012
- I don't believe it's junk, but let me first say that I know the authors. In my opinion, they overplayed the contrast with the Bem article when they titled the paper (it's a good attention-getter, though). They acknowledge that there are speculative aspects to the research, while also providing circumstantial support for their story: they show boundary conditions, where the effect goes away when the participant has poor domain knowledge, or accurate forecasting is simply too difficult (e.g. forecasting the weather in an unfamiliar place, or further into the future).
They do show causation, through random assignment of whether participants were manipulated to have higher trust in their feelings. And unlike Bem (who used randomized experiments that nobody has been able to replicate), they have a plausible mechanism. Unlike 'psi,' such unconscious information processing is hardly out of whack with the judgment and decision making literature.Apr 16, 2012
- I think this has been tested before in a variety of domains comparing people's answer to a question after three seconds to their answer after as much time as they want to take. The questions where the three second answer was more accurate existed, and formed some discernible classes, but they were far in the minority.Apr 16, 2012