Resharing my post with further gamer-y commentary/observations.
I played Sentinels earlier this week and +Grant Dasher
made the observation that he felt the outcome frequently came down to luck. I'm not sure I disagree, but enjoy the game anyway, but got to thinking whether there was a better way to estimate the likely difficulty of a game so made this scoring system.
A lot of the scores line up exactly like I'd expect: Absolute Zero is a weak hero, as is Mr. Fixer, while Legacy, The Scholar and Omnitron-X are quite strong. Rook City is an unusually brutal environment. Matriarch, Iron Legacy and The Chairman are tough villains.
Others surprised me. I didn't think Ambuscade seemed that profoundly easy, and I don't know if I've played with Cosmic Omnitron more than once to realize how difficult he is, in general. I also didn't think of Expatriette as weak or of The Ennead as an "easy" villain, but it seems to bear out, at least in the 2000 games logged by the project I used for source data.
But, I really didn't expect Miss Information to come out as the weakest villain, given that the game that triggered this discussion was a (reasonably fun) loss against her with a number of strong heroes. The total difficulty of that game was -180, which suggests we should have had a > 90% win chance, and it wasn't close, unless we were unusually unlucky or played poorly (did we? +Grant Dasher +Felix Rodriguez +Alison Cichowlas
+Matt Fishburn). The very limited data for Advanced mode (which we played) suggests that for Miss Information, the Advanced Delta may be more like 100 or even 125 points, rather than the 75 I suggest, but even still...
Also, some comparisons for individual games suggests that my original hypothesis (A well balanced difficulty level yields the most fun game) may not be true, but I think it's nice to be able to tune for difficulty a little more methodically.