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Eugene Vollucci
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Our goal is to help you buy and sell in the “Right Place at the Right Time”
Our goal is to help you buy and sell in the “Right Place at the Right Time”

4,915 followers
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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release


Just Released 4th Quarter 2018
Leading Rental Income Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their fourth quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is forty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is fourteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Spokane, WA, Houston, TX and Lake County, IL-WI. The three top sell recommendations are Brownsville, TX, Jacksonville, FL and Memphis, TN.” according to Mr. Vollucci.

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2018 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.6 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 7.1 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2017 and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2018 . The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.6 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2017 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2018.

The third quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The rates in principal cities and in the suburbs were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in principal cities was lower than the third quarter 2017 rate, while rates in the suburbs and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates. The homeowner vacancy rate was lowest in the suburbs . The rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from each other. The homeowner vacancy rates in principal cities, in the suburbs, and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates.

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December 2018 from a 49-year low of 3.7 percent in the previous month, and above market expectations of 3.7 percent. It was the highest jobless rate since July, as the number of unemployed persons rose by 276 thousand to 6.3 million. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.77 percent from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.
The labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent, changed little in December, and the employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent for the third consecutive month. Both measures were up by 0.4 percentage point over the year.

US Median Asking Rent is at a current level of $1,003.00, an increase of $52.00 or 5.47% from last quarter. This is an increase of $91.00 or 9.98% from last year and is higher than the long-term average of $583.50.

We feel that rental income properties completions will remain high in 2019, but new construction will slow down. We, at the Center For Real Estate Studies (CRES), project that in the coming year, development costs will increase and financing will be harder to get which will curb the pace of new additions.

However, the demand should remain high for rental income properties, causing a balance in net absorption next year. Vacancy will creep up and rent growth will be slower. We project that rental income properties will continue to attract investment capital, and supply/demand will be in balance.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com

to unsubscribe click below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dHpxXzVENEhidFVBWHFnQzlPbkYweVE6MQ#gid=0


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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release


Just Released 4th Quarter 2018
Leading Rental Income Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their fourth quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is forty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is fourteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Spokane, WA, Houston, TX and Lake County, IL-WI. The three top sell recommendations are Brownsville, TX, Jacksonville, FL and Memphis, TN.” according to Mr. Vollucci.

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2018 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.6 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 7.1 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2017 and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2018 . The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.6 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2017 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2018.

The third quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The rates in principal cities and in the suburbs were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in principal cities was lower than the third quarter 2017 rate, while rates in the suburbs and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates. The homeowner vacancy rate was lowest in the suburbs . The rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from each other. The homeowner vacancy rates in principal cities, in the suburbs, and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates.

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December 2018 from a 49-year low of 3.7 percent in the previous month, and above market expectations of 3.7 percent. It was the highest jobless rate since July, as the number of unemployed persons rose by 276 thousand to 6.3 million. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.77 percent from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.
The labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent, changed little in December, and the employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent for the third consecutive month. Both measures were up by 0.4 percentage point over the year.

US Median Asking Rent is at a current level of $1,003.00, an increase of $52.00 or 5.47% from last quarter. This is an increase of $91.00 or 9.98% from last year and is higher than the long-term average of $583.50.

We feel that rental income properties completions will remain high in 2019, but new construction will slow down. We, at the Center For Real Estate Studies (CRES), project that in the coming year, development costs will increase and financing will be harder to get which will curb the pace of new additions.

However, the demand should remain high for rental income properties, causing a balance in net absorption next year. Vacancy will creep up and rent growth will be slower. We project that rental income properties will continue to attract investment capital, and supply/demand will be in balance.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com

to unsubscribe click below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dHpxXzVENEhidFVBWHFnQzlPbkYweVE6MQ#gid=0


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News
The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release


Just Released 4th Quarter 2018
Leading Rental Income Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their fourth quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is forty-one, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is fourteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Spokane, WA, Houston, TX and Lake County, IL-WI. The three top sell recommendations are Brownsville, TX, Jacksonville, FL and Memphis, TN.” according to Mr. Vollucci.

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find the National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2018 were 7.1 percent for rental housing and 1.6 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 7.1 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2017 and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2018 . The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.6 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the third quarter 2017 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2018.

The third quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The rates in principal cities and in the suburbs were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in principal cities was lower than the third quarter 2017 rate, while rates in the suburbs and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates. The homeowner vacancy rate was lowest in the suburbs . The rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from each other. The homeowner vacancy rates in principal cities, in the suburbs, and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the third quarter 2017 rates.

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December 2018 from a 49-year low of 3.7 percent in the previous month, and above market expectations of 3.7 percent. It was the highest jobless rate since July, as the number of unemployed persons rose by 276 thousand to 6.3 million. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.77 percent from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.
The labor force participation rate, at 63.1 percent, changed little in December, and the employment-population ratio was 60.6 percent for the third consecutive month. Both measures were up by 0.4 percentage point over the year.

US Median Asking Rent is at a current level of $1,003.00, an increase of $52.00 or 5.47% from last quarter. This is an increase of $91.00 or 9.98% from last year and is higher than the long-term average of $583.50.

We feel that rental income properties completions will remain high in 2019, but new construction will slow down. We, at the Center For Real Estate Studies (CRES), project that in the coming year, development costs will increase and financing will be harder to get which will curb the pace of new additions.

However, the demand should remain high for rental income properties, causing a balance in net absorption next year. Vacancy will creep up and rent growth will be slower. We project that rental income properties will continue to attract investment capital, and supply/demand will be in balance.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com

to unsubscribe click below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dHpxXzVENEhidFVBWHFnQzlPbkYweVE6MQ#gid=0


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Post has attachment
News
The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release



Real Estate Investment Outlook for 2019

LOS ANGELES, CA. What are the prospects for real estate in 2019? It all hinges on the US and worldwide economies. Let’s look at 2018 to try to get an idea of what might happen in 2019.
Currently, the US economy is operating close to full capacity. Although consumer spending is strong, the risk that inflation will start to accelerate is relatively low, as the current capacity utilization of around 80% is still well below the levels seen in previous expansions of around 85%.
With an unemployment rate below 4% and a job vacancy rate of approximately 1.25, this implies that more open jobs are available than officially registered unemployed persons. Over the past five years, the US economy has created 210,000 jobs on average per month, resulting in 12 million payrolls. At the same time, the participation rate stands constant at around 63%, meaning that additional demand cannot be absorbed by a growing pool of workers returning to the labor market.
It is a surprising phenomenon that nominal wages - which grew by around 2.5% per year over the past five years - and hence unit labor costs - which were up by approximately 1.2% per annum -, have remained so well-behaved in recent years. If wage growth starts to accelerate in the wake of strong rising domestic demand, wage inflation will occur. Most companies will try to increase prices, which will drive overall inflation.
Should inflation overshoot the Fed’s guidelines, the US central bank might be forced to increase rates. Higher or even rising inflation may lead to a slow down in real estate investment. Elevated costs combined with an upturn in inflation and declining consumer and corporate spending, may even lead to a recession.
Worldwide trade is vital for the health of the US economy. The following data illustrates this: in 1995 trade openness measured against GDP was around 20% for the US. Twenty years later, these numbers have climbed to 40% for the US accord¬ing to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on first estimations by the WTO, the full implementation of the announced tariffs on the trade account deficit of the US with china of around 500 billion USD would sharply reduce worldwide economic growth. First gauges indicate a slowing of GOP growth by approximately 2%, with a severe cut in economic expansion in the US, China and the rest of the world.
Another risk associated with the trade tension is a severe slowdown in China due to the impact of the imposed tariffs on US imports by China. In this scenario, we would expect signif¬icant policy accommodation in such a situation, either in the form of infrastruc¬ture investments, easing of financial conditions or a combination of both.
Should this policy stimulus fail, a decel¬eration of the Chinese economy cannot be ruled out. How important is the growth of the Chinese economy to the US? If the growth rate of the Chinese econo¬my falls by one percentage point, this will subtract 0.3% from worldwide growth. A severe recession in China would most probably lead to a recession in the world economy.
The best advice we at the Center For Real Estate Studies can give, is to establish a wait-and-see posture as to what the new Congress will do. The White House is still in turmoil and the battle between China and the US has not been resolved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at CALSTATECOMPANIES.COM




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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release



Real Estate Investment Outlook for 2019

LOS ANGELES, CA. What are the prospects for real estate in 2019? It all hinges on the US and worldwide economies. Let’s look at 2018 to try to get an idea of what might happen in 2019.
Currently, the US economy is operating close to full capacity. Although consumer spending is strong, the risk that inflation will start to accelerate is relatively low, as the current capacity utilization of around 80% is still well below the levels seen in previous expansions of around 85%.
With an unemployment rate below 4% and a job vacancy rate of approximately 1.25, this implies that more open jobs are available than officially registered unemployed persons. Over the past five years, the US economy has created 210,000 jobs on average per month, resulting in 12 million payrolls. At the same time, the participation rate stands constant at around 63%, meaning that additional demand cannot be absorbed by a growing pool of workers returning to the labor market.
It is a surprising phenomenon that nominal wages - which grew by around 2.5% per year over the past five years - and hence unit labor costs - which were up by approximately 1.2% per annum -, have remained so well-behaved in recent years. If wage growth starts to accelerate in the wake of strong rising domestic demand, wage inflation will occur. Most companies will try to increase prices, which will drive overall inflation.
Should inflation overshoot the Fed’s guidelines, the US central bank might be forced to increase rates. Higher or even rising inflation may lead to a slow down in real estate investment. Elevated costs combined with an upturn in inflation and declining consumer and corporate spending, may even lead to a recession.
Worldwide trade is vital for the health of the US economy. The following data illustrates this: in 1995 trade openness measured against GDP was around 20% for the US. Twenty years later, these numbers have climbed to 40% for the US accord¬ing to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on first estimations by the WTO, the full implementation of the announced tariffs on the trade account deficit of the US with china of around 500 billion USD would sharply reduce worldwide economic growth. First gauges indicate a slowing of GOP growth by approximately 2%, with a severe cut in economic expansion in the US, China and the rest of the world.
Another risk associated with the trade tension is a severe slowdown in China due to the impact of the imposed tariffs on US imports by China. In this scenario, we would expect signif¬icant policy accommodation in such a situation, either in the form of infrastruc¬ture investments, easing of financial conditions or a combination of both.
Should this policy stimulus fail, a decel¬eration of the Chinese economy cannot be ruled out. How important is the growth of the Chinese economy to the US? If the growth rate of the Chinese econo¬my falls by one percentage point, this will subtract 0.3% from worldwide growth. A severe recession in China would most probably lead to a recession in the world economy.
The best advice we at the Center For Real Estate Studies can give, is to establish a wait-and-see posture as to what the new Congress will do. The White House is still in turmoil and the battle between China and the US has not been resolved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at CALSTATECOMPANIES.COM




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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
Web page calstatecompanies.com ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release



Real Estate Investment Outlook for 2019

LOS ANGELES, CA. What are the prospects for real estate in 2019? It all hinges on the US and worldwide economies. Let’s look at 2018 to try to get an idea of what might happen in 2019.
Currently, the US economy is operating close to full capacity. Although consumer spending is strong, the risk that inflation will start to accelerate is relatively low, as the current capacity utilization of around 80% is still well below the levels seen in previous expansions of around 85%.
With an unemployment rate below 4% and a job vacancy rate of approximately 1.25, this implies that more open jobs are available than officially registered unemployed persons. Over the past five years, the US economy has created 210,000 jobs on average per month, resulting in 12 million payrolls. At the same time, the participation rate stands constant at around 63%, meaning that additional demand cannot be absorbed by a growing pool of workers returning to the labor market.
It is a surprising phenomenon that nominal wages - which grew by around 2.5% per year over the past five years - and hence unit labor costs - which were up by approximately 1.2% per annum -, have remained so well-behaved in recent years. If wage growth starts to accelerate in the wake of strong rising domestic demand, wage inflation will occur. Most companies will try to increase prices, which will drive overall inflation.
Should inflation overshoot the Fed’s guidelines, the US central bank might be forced to increase rates. Higher or even rising inflation may lead to a slow down in real estate investment. Elevated costs combined with an upturn in inflation and declining consumer and corporate spending, may even lead to a recession.
Worldwide trade is vital for the health of the US economy. The following data illustrates this: in 1995 trade openness measured against GDP was around 20% for the US. Twenty years later, these numbers have climbed to 40% for the US accord¬ing to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on first estimations by the WTO, the full implementation of the announced tariffs on the trade account deficit of the US with china of around 500 billion USD would sharply reduce worldwide economic growth. First gauges indicate a slowing of GOP growth by approximately 2%, with a severe cut in economic expansion in the US, China and the rest of the world.
Another risk associated with the trade tension is a severe slowdown in China due to the impact of the imposed tariffs on US imports by China. In this scenario, we would expect signif¬icant policy accommodation in such a situation, either in the form of infrastruc¬ture investments, easing of financial conditions or a combination of both.
Should this policy stimulus fail, a decel¬eration of the Chinese economy cannot be ruled out. How important is the growth of the Chinese economy to the US? If the growth rate of the Chinese econo¬my falls by one percentage point, this will subtract 0.3% from worldwide growth. A severe recession in China would most probably lead to a recession in the world economy.
The best advice we at the Center For Real Estate Studies can give, is to establish a wait-and-see posture as to what the new Congress will do. The White House is still in turmoil and the battle between China and the US has not been resolved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at CALSTATECOMPANIES.COM

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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
PO Box 5133 ¨ Torrance, CA 90501 ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release

Just Released 3rd Qtr 2018
Leading Rental Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their third quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is thirty-nine, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eighteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Allentown, PA, Camden, NJ and Duluth, WI. The three top sell recommendations are Colorado Springs, CO, Sacramento, CA and Spokane, WA.”

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find that the National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2018 were 6.8 percent for rental housing and 1.5 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent was 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2017 (7.3 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2018 (7.0 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.5 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2017 and the rate in the first quarter 2018 (1.5 percent each).

The second quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (9.2 percent). The rates in principal cities (6.8 percent) and in the suburbs (6.2 percent) were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in the suburbs was lower than the second quarter 2017 rate, while rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the second quarter 2017 rates

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.5 percentage point and 795,000, respectively.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.3 percent) and Whites (3.3 percent) declined in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.4 million over the month; these individuals accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed.) In September, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 60.4 percent, was little changed.
Rents, based on the Apartment List report, increased by 1.5 percent from February through July, and leveled off in August and have now begun to fall. The summer months are generally when rental activity is at its busiest, and while rents increased at a fast clip in May and June, things have since cooled off considerably. Rent growth tends to follow a seasonal trend, but the slowdown this year started earlier than usual and month-over-month rent growth has now turned negative for the first time since January. This month’s data serves as further evidence of softness in the market, as rent growth over the past year remains sluggish compared to the previous two years.
Year-over-year growth currently stands at 0.9 percent at the national level, which is well below the 2.9 percent rate we saw this time last year as well as the 2.6 percent rate from September 2016. Rent growth is also pacing well behind the overall rate of inflation, which stands at 2.7 percent as of the latest data release, and is similarly lagging growth in average hourly earnings, which have increased by 2.9 percent over the past twelve months. With the homeownership rate continuing to trend upward and more new supply slated to come online throughout the year in many markets, it’s possible that rent growth will continue to be sluggish, a welcome bit of relief as millions of our nation’s renters continue to struggle with housing affordability.
. Absorption according to U.S. Department of Commerce US Census Bureau: Within the first 3 months after completion, 56 percent of season¬ally adjusted, newly completed, unfurnished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. The 56 percent seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from the revised seasonally adjusted figure of 54 percent reported in the previous quarter, nor the 55 percent in the first quarter of 2017
Absorption (not seasonally adjusted): Within the first 3 months after completion, 55 percent of the not seasonally adjusted, newly completed, unfur¬nished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. This figure is 6 percent¬age points higher than the revised not seasonally adjusted rate of 49 percent for units completed during the fourth quarter of 2017. However, the 3-month absorption rate for units completed in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from 54 percent 3-month absorption rate in first after a three-month period there were a higher.
Steady job creation, above-trend household formation and elevated single-family home prices have converged to counterbalance the addition of 1.37 million apartments over the last five years, at least on a macro level, easing concerns of overdevelopment. In the coming year, rising development costs, tighter construction financing and mounting caution levels will curb the pace of new additions from the 380,000 units delivered in 2017 to approximately 335,000 apartments. Although the pace of completions will moderate in 2018, additions will still likely outpace absorption, as reported by Marcus & Millichap.

In addition, they reported that, nationally, Class A vacancy rates have advanced to 6.3 percent in 2017 and will continue their climb to the 6.8 percent range over the next year. Vacancy rates for Class B and C assets will rise less significantly in 2018, pushing to 5.0 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Average rent growth will taper to 3.1 percent in 2018 as concessions become more prevalent, particularly in Class A properties.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com
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Post has attachment
News
The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
PO Box 5133 ¨ Torrance, CA 90501 ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release

Just Released 3rd Qtr 2018
Leading Rental Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their third quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is thirty-nine, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eighteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Allentown, PA, Camden, NJ and Duluth, WI. The three top sell recommendations are Colorado Springs, CO, Sacramento, CA and Spokane, WA.”

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find that the National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2018 were 6.8 percent for rental housing and 1.5 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent was 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2017 (7.3 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2018 (7.0 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.5 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2017 and the rate in the first quarter 2018 (1.5 percent each).

The second quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (9.2 percent). The rates in principal cities (6.8 percent) and in the suburbs (6.2 percent) were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in the suburbs was lower than the second quarter 2017 rate, while rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the second quarter 2017 rates

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.5 percentage point and 795,000, respectively.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.3 percent) and Whites (3.3 percent) declined in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.4 million over the month; these individuals accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed.) In September, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 60.4 percent, was little changed.
Rents, based on the Apartment List report, increased by 1.5 percent from February through July, and leveled off in August and have now begun to fall. The summer months are generally when rental activity is at its busiest, and while rents increased at a fast clip in May and June, things have since cooled off considerably. Rent growth tends to follow a seasonal trend, but the slowdown this year started earlier than usual and month-over-month rent growth has now turned negative for the first time since January. This month’s data serves as further evidence of softness in the market, as rent growth over the past year remains sluggish compared to the previous two years.
Year-over-year growth currently stands at 0.9 percent at the national level, which is well below the 2.9 percent rate we saw this time last year as well as the 2.6 percent rate from September 2016. Rent growth is also pacing well behind the overall rate of inflation, which stands at 2.7 percent as of the latest data release, and is similarly lagging growth in average hourly earnings, which have increased by 2.9 percent over the past twelve months. With the homeownership rate continuing to trend upward and more new supply slated to come online throughout the year in many markets, it’s possible that rent growth will continue to be sluggish, a welcome bit of relief as millions of our nation’s renters continue to struggle with housing affordability.
. Absorption according to U.S. Department of Commerce US Census Bureau: Within the first 3 months after completion, 56 percent of season¬ally adjusted, newly completed, unfurnished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. The 56 percent seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from the revised seasonally adjusted figure of 54 percent reported in the previous quarter, nor the 55 percent in the first quarter of 2017
Absorption (not seasonally adjusted): Within the first 3 months after completion, 55 percent of the not seasonally adjusted, newly completed, unfur¬nished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. This figure is 6 percent¬age points higher than the revised not seasonally adjusted rate of 49 percent for units completed during the fourth quarter of 2017. However, the 3-month absorption rate for units completed in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from 54 percent 3-month absorption rate in first after a three-month period there were a higher.
Steady job creation, above-trend household formation and elevated single-family home prices have converged to counterbalance the addition of 1.37 million apartments over the last five years, at least on a macro level, easing concerns of overdevelopment. In the coming year, rising development costs, tighter construction financing and mounting caution levels will curb the pace of new additions from the 380,000 units delivered in 2017 to approximately 335,000 apartments. Although the pace of completions will moderate in 2018, additions will still likely outpace absorption, as reported by Marcus & Millichap.

In addition, they reported that, nationally, Class A vacancy rates have advanced to 6.3 percent in 2017 and will continue their climb to the 6.8 percent range over the next year. Vacancy rates for Class B and C assets will rise less significantly in 2018, pushing to 5.0 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Average rent growth will taper to 3.1 percent in 2018 as concessions become more prevalent, particularly in Class A properties.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com
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News
The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
PO Box 5133 ¨ Torrance, CA 90501 ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release

Just Released 3rd Qtr 2018
Leading Rental Markets


LOS ANGELES, CA. The Center for Real Estate Studies (CRES) research report has just released their third quarter 2018 issue of “Market Cycles". It gives a forward look at more than 150 income rental markets with “buy and sell” recommendations. This publication gives the real estate investor a two-year head start on where and when to invest in income rental properties.

The current number of markets in the “Sell Phase” is thirty-nine, according to Eugene E. Vollucci, Director of CRES. The number of markets in the “Buy Phase” is eighteen. Mr. Vollucci states, “This quarter the three top buy recommendations are Allentown, PA, Camden, NJ and Duluth, WI. The three top sell recommendations are Colorado Springs, CO, Sacramento, CA and Spokane, WA.”

In this edition of our Market Cycles, we find that the National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2018 were 6.8 percent for rental housing and 1.5 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.8 percent was 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2017 (7.3 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2018 (7.0 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.5 percent was virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2017 and the rate in the first quarter 2018 (1.5 percent each).

The second quarter 2018 rental vacancy rate was highest outside Metropolitan Statistical Areas (9.2 percent). The rates in principal cities (6.8 percent) and in the suburbs (6.2 percent) were not statistically different from each other. The rental vacancy rate in the suburbs was lower than the second quarter 2017 rate, while rates in principal cities and outside MSAs were not statistically different from the second quarter 2017 rates

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.5 percentage point and 795,000, respectively.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.3 percent) and Whites (3.3 percent) declined in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.4 million over the month; these individuals accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed.) In September, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent, and the employment population ratio, at 60.4 percent, was little changed.
Rents, based on the Apartment List report, increased by 1.5 percent from February through July, and leveled off in August and have now begun to fall. The summer months are generally when rental activity is at its busiest, and while rents increased at a fast clip in May and June, things have since cooled off considerably. Rent growth tends to follow a seasonal trend, but the slowdown this year started earlier than usual and month-over-month rent growth has now turned negative for the first time since January. This month’s data serves as further evidence of softness in the market, as rent growth over the past year remains sluggish compared to the previous two years.
Year-over-year growth currently stands at 0.9 percent at the national level, which is well below the 2.9 percent rate we saw this time last year as well as the 2.6 percent rate from September 2016. Rent growth is also pacing well behind the overall rate of inflation, which stands at 2.7 percent as of the latest data release, and is similarly lagging growth in average hourly earnings, which have increased by 2.9 percent over the past twelve months. With the homeownership rate continuing to trend upward and more new supply slated to come online throughout the year in many markets, it’s possible that rent growth will continue to be sluggish, a welcome bit of relief as millions of our nation’s renters continue to struggle with housing affordability.
. Absorption according to U.S. Department of Commerce US Census Bureau: Within the first 3 months after completion, 56 percent of season¬ally adjusted, newly completed, unfurnished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. The 56 percent seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from the revised seasonally adjusted figure of 54 percent reported in the previous quarter, nor the 55 percent in the first quarter of 2017
Absorption (not seasonally adjusted): Within the first 3 months after completion, 55 percent of the not seasonally adjusted, newly completed, unfur¬nished rental apartments built in the first quarter of 2018 were rented. This figure is 6 percent¬age points higher than the revised not seasonally adjusted rate of 49 percent for units completed during the fourth quarter of 2017. However, the 3-month absorption rate for units completed in the first quarter of 2018 did not dif¬fer significantly from 54 percent 3-month absorption rate in first after a three-month period there were a higher.
Steady job creation, above-trend household formation and elevated single-family home prices have converged to counterbalance the addition of 1.37 million apartments over the last five years, at least on a macro level, easing concerns of overdevelopment. In the coming year, rising development costs, tighter construction financing and mounting caution levels will curb the pace of new additions from the 380,000 units delivered in 2017 to approximately 335,000 apartments. Although the pace of completions will moderate in 2018, additions will still likely outpace absorption, as reported by Marcus & Millichap.

In addition, they reported that, nationally, Class A vacancy rates have advanced to 6.3 percent in 2017 and will continue their climb to the 6.8 percent range over the next year. Vacancy rates for Class B and C assets will rise less significantly in 2018, pushing to 5.0 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Average rent growth will taper to 3.1 percent in 2018 as concessions become more prevalent, particularly in Class A properties.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at http://www.calstatecompanies.com
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The Cal State Companies: Center for Real Estate Studies ¨ Cal State Properties ¨ Cal State Investment LTD Partnership
PO Box 5133 ¨ Torrance, CA 90501 ¨ E-Mail calstatecompanie@aol.com

Media Contact: The Center for RE Studies For: Immediate Release


Real Estate Outlook September 2018

LOS ANGELES, CA. How will the United States increased tariffs on an additional sixteen billion dollars of goods impact the real estate market? China has announced retaliatory tariffs and has even decided to increase tariffs on another two hundred billion dollars of Chinese goods. There is a weakening trend due to trade disruptions. The actual impact on the real estate markets will only become fully visible later this year.

As of this writing of our research report, we do not yet know the full extent of the US-China trade tension. We are not yet able to estimate the rate of change on the markets. We do not even know yet whether the cost of real estate would be lower or higher in the United States.

Now, rhetoric remains strong on both sides and is leading to a confrontational showdown. It is still unclear how far it might go, and de-escalation will probably only start when there are visible signs of economic, market and/or political pain. So far, we consider these trade tensions between the US and China as a significant risk to sustained coordinated growth in the real estate markets.

We now see no real upside through the remainder of this year, and indeed, there is a risk that the conditions may continue to deteriorate Two key modest positive economic assumptions are: 1) trade with China will be resolved; and 2) the United States’ growth remains exceptional next year.

Due to the current state of the United States economy and the solid economic predictions, we see no surprises from the Feds. They will continue to hike rates in line with growth, employment and expected inflation. Whether there will be further rate hikes in 2018 will depend on the external data. Should there be another acceleration of economic activity and higher wage growth, the Fed will probably respond with a tighter monetary policy stance.

Since the 2010s, the United States economy has been expanding at an average rate of 2.2%. The following factor explains this growth. In the United States, monetary and fiscal policy started to support the economy immediately to mitigate the impact of the real estate and financial crisis on economic growth and employment in 2009.

In spite of the Fed’s rate hikes, interest rates remain quite low and
have been for several years. The Feds are expected to continue raising interest rates. That is why real estate investors are worried. Their fears are ingrained in the perception that rising interest rates will weaken property values. Nevertheless, historical data show that higher interest rates have not necessarily impaired total returns.

While the prospects for residential rental income properties still may be pending, it is important to recognize that economic and financial markets are still concerned with market volatility. This may prove to be challenging since real estate cycles typically turn due to negative imbalances affecting demand and/or to supply drivers. Overbuilding, over-lending, over-buying are imbalances that have characterized past downturns—all appear unlikely under current conditions.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Eugene E. Vollucci is the Director of The Center for Real Estate Studies, a real estate research institute. He is author of four best selling books and many articles on real estate rental income investing and taxation. To purchase a subscription to Market Cycles and to learn more about the Center for Real Estate Studies, please visit us at CALSTATECOMPANIES.COM
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