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Simon Wardley
Works at Leading Edge Forum
Attended Cambridge University
Lived in London
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Researcher / Advisory Boards
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  • Leading Edge Forum
    Researcher, 2010 - present
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London - Hythe
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I like ducks, they're fowl but not through choice
Introduction
Researcher focused on competition between organisations.
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Has own time machine but is completely out of Zeiton 7
Education
  • Cambridge University
    Natural Sciences, 1987 - 1990
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Simon Harris

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Simon Wardley

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Experiment or Plan?
Whenever you examine a project, system or line of business then the first act that I normally do is to map it. Mapping is an easy process, with experience the creating a based map should take no more than a couple of hours. To map, you start with user needs...
Whenever you examine a project, system or line of business then the first act that I normally do is to map it. Mapping is an easy process, with experience the creating a based map should take no more than a couple of hours. T...
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Simon Wardley

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Pick a course, adapt as needed.
Ok, a bit of history to begin with. When I took over running Fotango (a Canon Europe subsidiary), it was a loss making organisation. It took me a year to make it profitable. We grew the business by taking our skills and applying them to relevant areas. In t...
Ok, a bit of history to begin with. When I took over running Fotango (a Canon Europe subsidiary), it was a loss making organisation. It took me a year to make it profitable. We grew the business by taking our skills and apply...
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Devops ... we've been here before, we will be back again.
In this post I want to explore the causes and origins of DevOps and how you can use such knowledge to advantage in other fields. I'm going to start with a trawl back through history and four snippets from a board pack in early 2007. This snippets describe p...
In this post I want to explore the causes and origins of DevOps and how you can use such knowledge to advantage in other fields. I'm going to start with a trawl back through history and four snippets from a board pack in earl...
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I read all your posts Simon, . I must say i learnt more from Figs 5 down than i did in 4 years or university
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Motto on the wall at +1stbuild at the #HacktheHome hackathon, where +Ubuntu​ is one of the sponsors, helping put #Snappy Ubuntu on GE appliances!
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The only structure you'll ever need ... until the next one.
Back in 2004, I was the CEO of Canon subsidiary and I faced multiple problems. There was issues of business & IT alignment, poor communication, dissatisfaction and clarity of strategy.  Don't get me wrong we had strategy document but they were pretty much i...
Back in 2004, I was the CEO of Canon subsidiary and I faced multiple problems. There was issues of business & IT alignment, poor communication, dissatisfaction and clarity of strategy.  Don't get me wrong we had strategy docu...
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Put the yellow hat on and start hoping ...
I often talk about different strategic plays and games (I've added an example set in table 1) and how you can manipulate your environment (expressed in a Wardley Map) by the use of these. For those new to Mapping, I've provided a set of useful posts . For t...
I often talk about different strategic plays and games (I've added an example set in table 1) and how you can manipulate your environment (expressed in a Wardley Map) by the use of these. For those new to Mapping, I've provid...
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Simon Wardley

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Consultancy takes a swipe at GDS.
The latest piece of “craft” from Kat Hall on how a “GDS Monopoly leaves UK.gov at risk of IT cock-ups” was interesting, to say the least. I’m sure Kat Hall is under pressure to write articles, I’ve seen the Register help create some very fine tech journalis...
The latest piece of “craft” from Kat Hall on how a “GDS Monopoly leaves UK.gov at risk of IT cock-ups” was interesting, to say the least. I’m sure Kat Hall is under pressure to write articles, I’ve seen the Register help crea...
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AWS to report
Many many years ago back in the days I worked at Canonical, I calculated a forward run rate for AWS. This was based upon existing analyst predictions of revenue, a punctuated equilibrium, some expectation of price elasticity and a lot of voodoo & jiggery-po...
Many many years ago back in the days I worked at Canonical, I calculated a forward run rate for AWS. This was based upon existing analyst predictions of revenue, a punctuated equilibrium, some expectation of price elasticity ...
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You can sort of deduce the growth patterns by looking at Netcraft data on AWS server counts. At face value, their growth starts really accelerating in Q3 last year. That might magnify up if their #virtual instances per physical server is trending the same way.

The only outfit showing good progress against them was Digital Ocean, who were capturing all the startup Dev communities with an "Open Source as a Service" thrust, and funded by A16Z. But for Enterprise, they are leaving Google, Microsoft et al in the dust.
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A Labour / Conservative Coalition
For over 20 years in the last 100 years, we've had a coalition Government formed by the two major parties. I have a strong preference for this given the current economic climate and view a strong Government created by a coalition between Labour and Conserva...
For over 20 years in the last 100 years, we've had a coalition Government formed by the two major parties. I have a strong preference for this given the current economic climate and view a strong Government created by a coali...
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Scottish Labour are getting the wind up, this the 4th or 5th election leaflet I've had i
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What's in a Wardley Map?
It doesn't matter whether it's a map of an organisation or line of business or policy or system or industry. The same elements exists (see figure 1) The elements of a map 1).  You have the User needs. 2). You have many chains of needs.  3). Those chains of ...
It doesn't matter whether it's a map of an organisation or line of business or policy or system or industry. The same elements exists (see figure 1) The elements of a map 1). You have the User needs. 2). You have many...
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Near field, far field and the crazy ideas
In any year, there's well over 70,000 publications covering the future from books to magazines to short stories to scripts to papers to blog posts. Pure probability alone says someone, somewhere is going to get something right.  Our history of prognosticati...
In any year, there's well over 70,000 publications covering the future from books to magazines to short stories to scripts to papers to blog posts. Pure probability alone says someone, somewhere is going to get something righ...
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So Amazon fired a warning shot at supermarkets and everyone went April Fool?
By now you'll have heard of Amazon's "Dash" button . Is it an April Fool? Let's hope so if you're a supermarket but in all likelihood ... nope. It's a bell tolling for your future demise (except those who can carve out a specialist niche). So, what's the bi...
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+Christophe Leroy : a 30-50 year cycle from genesis to industrialisation with a 10 - 15 year time frame for industrialisation can create a powerful impression of the "pace" of change' through multiple overlapping wars - see http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/02/on-evolution-disruption-and-pace-of.html

Don't confuse multiple overlapping "wars" (i.e. points of industrialisation) with an assumption that the underlying cycle has accelerated. 3D printing started in 1967 etc.

However, the speed of the underlying cycle DOES accelerate as means of communication industrialises (printing press, postage stamp, telephone, internet etc). It is clear  this has accelerated but unclear as to how fast the cycle is now, it may well be 20-30 years.

What that means is that 20-30 years after the genesis of something, when huge giants rule the space, their product industries will get wiped out in 10-15 years.

That 20-30 years is an incredibly fast pace. It means you will get the genesis of new acts, slow growth and eventually giants forming (+10 years), those giants become huge (+20 years) and then declining (+30 years from origin) due to the change and inertia caused by existing success. That would put the average company lifetime of Tech giants as very short indeed - possibly less than 10 years. 

If 20-30 years holds (and the jury is out on this) then by 2025 ...

* hybrid printers (physical form + electronics) will become a commodity and previous printer companies (Makerbots etc) will start to decline.

* Intelligent Agents would be a commodity and companies building products in this space IBM Watson / Google Now / Siri / Telsa / MindMeld will face decline in those businesses.

* IoT would be a commodity and companies building products  in this space GE / Microsoft / Google Nest will face a decline.

* Immersive Tech will be a commodity and all those companies building products (e.g. VR headset) will be losing that business.

In general ...

20-30 years is an incredibly fast pace for evolution. At the moment, the jury is out. Soon we will know. But if we think of the world wide web to 'digital first' then it's not unfeasible. 

10 - 15 years is just how long it takes to wipe out the incumbent industry. That does seem to accelerate again with commoditisation of means of communication but by a lesser amount.
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