Profile

Cover photo
Gordon Irlam
55 followers|31,264 views
AboutPostsPhotosVideos

Stream

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I compared 11 different asset allocation calculators on the web. For roughly the same scenario I found the recommended asset allocation ranged from 35% to 100% stocks. Caveat emptor.
Asset Allocator Comparison. I compare the results of 11 popular asset allocators freely available on the web. The scenario. A 66 year old U.S. male born in 1950. They have just retired and receive $15000 a year in Social Security income. They have no other income.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I wrote a paper exploring asset allocation's little secret: the standard error of the equity risk premium is so large that a 95% confidence interval spans almost the entire range of possible asset allocations. This is not saying asset allocation is uncertain as the returns you experience are uncertain because of your limited lifetime. Rather, there is intrinsic uncertainty as to what returns you will experience due to the limited historical record of returns.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
It is not for the faint of heart, but I have just released the source code to my AACalc asset allocator and consumption planner under an open source GNU Affero license. Briefly, this is a retirement planning stochastic dynamic programming tool that I have been working on for the past few years. Unlike Monte Carlo simulation, which takes a strategy and works forward in time to see how well it performs, stochastic dynamic programming works backwards in time to compute the optimal strategy to be employed.
AACalc is a scientifically advanced online asset allocation calculator.
2
Jesse Mundis's profile photo
 
Congrats! I'll try and take a look at it in the near future. Thanks.
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I've developed an actuarially fair SPIA pricing calculator. I am finding the SPIA quotes I have received are quite competitive, with Money's Worth Ratios in the 90-100% range when measured against Treasury bonds.
What is my actuarially fair SPIA or DIA price? financial planning. This application computes actuarially fair prices for Single Premium Immediate Annuities (SPIAs) and Deferred Income Annuities (DIAs). An annuity is actuarially fair if the price paid for it equals the expected present value of ...
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
Last election cycle I gave heavily. This time I think I will largely sit on the sidelines. A quick back of the envelope estimate suggests election cycle giving might have a societal payback of around 60-600 times the amount given, but this is far less than they payback for global public health, and probably for advocacy for global public health or for artificial intelligence related causes.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
It sounds like the stuff of science fiction: seven keys, held by individuals from all over the world, that together control security at the core of the web. The reality, discovers James Ball, is rather closer to The Office than The Matrix
1
Add a comment...
Have him in circles
55 people
Rohit Khare's profile photo
Mark Judge's profile photo
jonnalagadda achyutananda's profile photo
Michelle Galaria's profile photo
Katja Grace's profile photo
Wade Pfau's profile photo
Sandy Mackenzie's profile photo
William Shickler's profile photo
Albert Mendall's profile photo

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
AACalc is a new open source asset allocation calculator that I wrote. My old asset allocator was slow, complex, and precise. This one is fast, simple, and approximate. It takes into account Social Security benefits, and produces high and low estimates as a result of uncertainties in the equity risk premium.
Computes appropriate asset allocation, income annuities, and consumption using scientific principles. And explains how the recommendations were derived.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I wrote an open source pricing tool for income annuities. It uses actuarial life tables and the latest yield curve from the Fed to compute fair SPIA and DIA prices. Using it I find Money's Worth Ratios for actual quotes are typically close to 100%.
Compute the actuarially fair price for Single Premium Immediate Annuities and Deferred Income Annuities.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
After a 2-3 year absence I've finally updated my Back of the Envelope Guide to Philanthropy website. AI risk remains the top issue. New evaluations: farm animal welfare, GiveWell, urban land reform, sleep research, and political donations. Notable changes: OneWorld Health appears to have largely failed taking $180m with it. New cross cutting pages on: global catastrophic risks, lobbying, and international development lobbying.
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I was confused by the "+1" button in Google Plus. I just spent an hour trying to figure it out. For anyone else similarly confused here is what I discovered.

+1 is NOT used for a recommender system to indicate "show me more postings like this".

+1 is primarily used as a simple means of providing feedback to the author that you appreciated their posting. It is primarily just a counter.

However, it also has some aspects of the share button: "If the post was shared with people in your extended circles who also have you in their circles, they may also see your +1 in their streams". Extended circles are your "circle's circles", that is your friend's friends. I think this means if You and YourEnemy have a CommonFriend, and YourEnemy includes You in their circles, but You don't include them, YourEnemy will be able to see your +1 activity (at least on public posts). Google doesn't make it clear if YourEnemy will simply see the +1'd post, or if they will be able to see that You +1'd it.

Lastly. if you +1 a product or brand (what exactly defines these isn't clear) then Google may use your name and image in ads. This can be opted out. For me the default was opted out, but that may be because I use Google Apps for Business.

I find it all very confusing (and I find Facebook even more confusing). Why can't they separate out "thank", "share", and "endorse"?
4
1
Jesse Mundis's profile photo
 
+1 this post, non ironically, for the fine write up.
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
I ironically encourage anyone who is concerned about the influence of money on US politics to donate to the Mayday PAC. Unless more people donate they won't reach their July 4th target. It costs nothing unless the target is reached, and if you want you can limit donations to helping only either Republicans or Democrats that are committed to reform.
Help us reduce the influence of money in politics and pledge today!
1
Add a comment...

Gordon Irlam

Shared publicly  - 
 
We waste roughly 1/3 of our lives sleeping. This puts sleep right up there along with global warming, hostile AI risk, and global poverty as one of the world's big problems. From what I can tell very little is being done about it. Despite sleep's big expense sleep appears less promising than many other philanthropic opportunities. Drugs such as modafinil can cut the need for sleep from 8 hours a day to 2.5 hours with apparently few side effects. When purchased in bulk modafinil costs around $0.30 per 200mg, or $100/year. Valuing a year of normal life at $90k and assigning no value to time spent sleeping gives (8 - 2.5) / (24 - 8) * $90k = $30k as the value of the increased economic productivity and leisure time of an individual consuming modafinil. The result is a leverage factor of 300 for each dollar spent on modifinil assuming no overheads. This is less than many other opportunities I have documented at Back of the Envelope Guide to Philanthropy. The price of modafinil would need to drop below $0.01/pill before it becomes interesting.
1
Add a comment...
People
Have him in circles
55 people
Rohit Khare's profile photo
Mark Judge's profile photo
jonnalagadda achyutananda's profile photo
Michelle Galaria's profile photo
Katja Grace's profile photo
Wade Pfau's profile photo
Sandy Mackenzie's profile photo
William Shickler's profile photo
Albert Mendall's profile photo
Basic Information
Gender
Male