"Who Rises to the Top? Early Indicators", Kell et al 2013:
Youth identified before age 13 (N = 320) as having profound mathematical or verbal reasoning abilities (top 1 in 10,000) were tracked for nearly three decades. Their awards and creative accomplishments by age 38, in combination with specific details about their occupational responsibilities, illuminate the magnitude of their contribution and professional stature. Many have been entrusted with obligations and resources for making critical decisions about individual and organizational well-being. Their leadership positions in business, health care, law, the professoriate, and STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) suggest that many are outstanding creators of modern culture, constituting a precious human-capital resource. Identifying truly profound human potential, and forecasting differential development within such populations, requires assessing multiple cognitive abilities and using atypical measurement procedures. This study illustrates how ultimate criteria may be aggregated and longitudinally sequenced to validate such measures.
Table 1 reveals the richness and scope of participants' activities. One indication of the caliber of their contributions is the prestige of the organizations that have awarded them grants. The data on creative accomplishments speak for themselves, but a few summary remarks are in order. In the arts and humanities, 24 individuals had produced 128 creative written works (e.g., poems, novels, refereed publications), an average of 5.3 accomplishments per individual. In the same domain, 52 people had produced 1,069 achievements in the fine arts (e.g., music, sculpture), an average of 20.6 accomplishments per person. STEM achievements are also noteworthy. Fifty-nine individuals had produced refereed STEM publications, in areas ranging from biochemistry to engineering; the total number of STEM publications produced was 392 (6.6 per person). In the case of software development and patents, 117 people had made 820 contributions, an average of 7 per individual. Thirty-one individuals had received more than $25 million in grants, an average of $825,635 per person. The tally of awards and significant accomplishments for these 320 individuals was 2,749, or an average of 8.6 per person.
...enough information is provided to make clear that a number of participants are working for world-class organizations and hold important positions of impact and responsibility in Fortune 500 companies, technology, law, and medicine. For the professoriate in our sample, Table 3 lists universities that either awarded them tenure or attracted them with tenure, plus some of their refereed publication outlets. In total, 11.3% of participants had earned tenure at accredited institutions; 7.5% had tenure at research-intensive institutions (Carnegie Foundation, 2010). This latter percentage is many, many times the base-rate expectation, given the 2% base rate for doctorates in the United States and the fact that only a tiny fraction of the individuals with doctorates have tenure at research0intensive institutions.
Although it would be difficult to quantify participants' collective accomplishments in a single number, by any standard, it appears that many individuals identifiable by age 13 as having profound mathematical and verbal reasoning ability develop into truly outstanding contributors in their respective fields. Not only did participants choose prestigious occupations by age 38 (Fig. 2 and Table 2), but the organizations employing them were impressive as well (Tables 2 and 3). Although a number of our data counts do not reflect the quality of participants' contributions, the organizations employing participants (e.g., Fortune 500 companies, major law firms, large medical facilities, and research universities) and bestowing awards on them (e.g., the U.S. Departments of State and Justice, the National Science Foundation, Intel Corporation, NASA, and The Wall Street Journal) afford reasonable quality appraisals of their creative products as well as the responsibilities, resources, and trust that they have earned.
More than 7% of participants held tenure at research-intensive universities (including many considered the best in the world) by the time they were age 38. The 14 attorneys were predominantly working in positions of significant responsibility for major firms or organizations. The 19 physicians were also highly accomplished: Seven were assistant professors, 2 were directors of major private practices, and 1 codirected a hospital organ-transplant center serving more than 3 million people. Rather than working for established organizations, 14 individuals founded companies of their own. Two individuals were vice presidents at Fortune 500 companies; 2 others were Fortune 500 senior hardware or software engineers. Several participants were active in government agencies at local and federal levels-one advised the president of the United States on national policy issues.
Although participants' accomplishments are impressive in variety and scope, it is important to note the magnitude of individual differences in output, even in this exceptionally talented sample. Within several accomplishment groupings, some individuals far outstripped their intellectual peers. For example, in the arts and humanities, one individual produced 500 musical productions, accounting for more than 57% of the musical productions reported here; three individuals produced 100 software contributions each, or nearly 44% of the total reported. Seven participants received more than $1 million in grant funding each; collectively, their funding amounted to nearly $20 million, more than 77% of the total sample's grant funding; one individual alone received $9 million in grant funding. Finally, one person founded three companies, and another was responsible for raising more than $65 million in private equity investment to fund his company.
Youth identified before age 13 (N = 320) as having profound mathematical or verbal reasoning abilities (top 1 in 10,000) were tracked for nearly three decades. Their awards and creative accomplishments by age 38, in combination with specific details about their occupational responsibilities, illuminate the magnitude of their contribution and professional stature. Many have been entrusted with obligations and resources for making critical decisions about individual and organizational well-being. Their leadership positions in business, health care, law, the professoriate, and STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) suggest that many are outstanding creators of modern culture, constituting a precious human-capital resource. Identifying truly profound human potential, and forecasting differential development within such populations, requires assessing multiple cognitive abilities and using atypical measurement procedures. This study illustrates how ultimate criteria may be aggregated and longitudinally sequenced to validate such measures.
Table 1 reveals the richness and scope of participants' activities. One indication of the caliber of their contributions is the prestige of the organizations that have awarded them grants. The data on creative accomplishments speak for themselves, but a few summary remarks are in order. In the arts and humanities, 24 individuals had produced 128 creative written works (e.g., poems, novels, refereed publications), an average of 5.3 accomplishments per individual. In the same domain, 52 people had produced 1,069 achievements in the fine arts (e.g., music, sculpture), an average of 20.6 accomplishments per person. STEM achievements are also noteworthy. Fifty-nine individuals had produced refereed STEM publications, in areas ranging from biochemistry to engineering; the total number of STEM publications produced was 392 (6.6 per person). In the case of software development and patents, 117 people had made 820 contributions, an average of 7 per individual. Thirty-one individuals had received more than $25 million in grants, an average of $825,635 per person. The tally of awards and significant accomplishments for these 320 individuals was 2,749, or an average of 8.6 per person.
...enough information is provided to make clear that a number of participants are working for world-class organizations and hold important positions of impact and responsibility in Fortune 500 companies, technology, law, and medicine. For the professoriate in our sample, Table 3 lists universities that either awarded them tenure or attracted them with tenure, plus some of their refereed publication outlets. In total, 11.3% of participants had earned tenure at accredited institutions; 7.5% had tenure at research-intensive institutions (Carnegie Foundation, 2010). This latter percentage is many, many times the base-rate expectation, given the 2% base rate for doctorates in the United States and the fact that only a tiny fraction of the individuals with doctorates have tenure at research0intensive institutions.
Although it would be difficult to quantify participants' collective accomplishments in a single number, by any standard, it appears that many individuals identifiable by age 13 as having profound mathematical and verbal reasoning ability develop into truly outstanding contributors in their respective fields. Not only did participants choose prestigious occupations by age 38 (Fig. 2 and Table 2), but the organizations employing them were impressive as well (Tables 2 and 3). Although a number of our data counts do not reflect the quality of participants' contributions, the organizations employing participants (e.g., Fortune 500 companies, major law firms, large medical facilities, and research universities) and bestowing awards on them (e.g., the U.S. Departments of State and Justice, the National Science Foundation, Intel Corporation, NASA, and The Wall Street Journal) afford reasonable quality appraisals of their creative products as well as the responsibilities, resources, and trust that they have earned.
More than 7% of participants held tenure at research-intensive universities (including many considered the best in the world) by the time they were age 38. The 14 attorneys were predominantly working in positions of significant responsibility for major firms or organizations. The 19 physicians were also highly accomplished: Seven were assistant professors, 2 were directors of major private practices, and 1 codirected a hospital organ-transplant center serving more than 3 million people. Rather than working for established organizations, 14 individuals founded companies of their own. Two individuals were vice presidents at Fortune 500 companies; 2 others were Fortune 500 senior hardware or software engineers. Several participants were active in government agencies at local and federal levels-one advised the president of the United States on national policy issues.
Although participants' accomplishments are impressive in variety and scope, it is important to note the magnitude of individual differences in output, even in this exceptionally talented sample. Within several accomplishment groupings, some individuals far outstripped their intellectual peers. For example, in the arts and humanities, one individual produced 500 musical productions, accounting for more than 57% of the musical productions reported here; three individuals produced 100 software contributions each, or nearly 44% of the total reported. Seven participants received more than $1 million in grant funding each; collectively, their funding amounted to nearly $20 million, more than 77% of the total sample's grant funding; one individual alone received $9 million in grant funding. Finally, one person founded three companies, and another was responsible for raising more than $65 million in private equity investment to fund his company.
Did anything in this paper strike you as surprising?Apr 17, 2013
No, but a lot of people seem to believe that IQ ceases to be predictive of much of anything past 130+, so this paper might strike them as surprising.Apr 17, 2013
Yes I would agree, I have heard that argument amongst friends too. Would be interesting to see studies scrutinizing what they mean by and the result of "subjective feelings" (p2) and what focal points that can be established in terms of traits... curiosity, attention to details given the sample.Apr 17, 2013