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Jared Cohen
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Attended University of Oxford
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Jared Cohen

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In today's New York Times, +Eric Schmidt and I talk about how the world can defeat repressive online censorship within a decade: The Future of Internet freedom http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/opinion/the-future-of-internet-freedom.html
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Jared Cohen

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UPenn came out w/its annual rankings of global think tanks and +Google Ideas  ranks #3 in the world among "For Profit Think Tanks" (cc: +Eric Schmidt):
1.  Economist Intelligence Unit
2.  McKinsey Global Institute
3.  Google Ideas
4.  Ernest & Young
5.  Deutsche Bank Research
6.  Oxford Analytica
7.  Eurasia Group
8.  Booz and Company
9.  Balouste Gulbenkian Foundation
10. Stratfor
11. Samsung Economic Research Institute
12. Kissinger Associates
13. Nomura Research Institute
14. A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council
15. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
16. European House Ambrosetti
17. Boston Consulting Group
18. PricewaterhouseCoopers
19. The Parthenon Group
20. Bain and Company
21. IHS Global Insight
22. Roubini Global Economics
23. Access Capital Research
24. Daimler Benz Future Research Unit
25. Prioritet
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My thoughts on Iran's great moderate hype:

Iran’s Great Moderate Hope Hype

With Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s presidential “victory” in Iran, many argue that we should be optimistic and that his sanctioned “win” indicated the shifting political tides in Tehran. After all, he claims to be a moderate, has a background in nuclear negotiation, and adopts a more conciliatory tone toward the West. His 51 percent victory suggests that the Iranian people have embraced his candidacy as a gesture toward true reform. As a cleric, Rouhani may have the religious credentials to challenge the ruling elite. And perhaps most importantly, Rouhani’s experience working on the nuclear issue have led many to hope that Iran might finally have a willing participant in ongoing negotiations. This all sounds like a significant improvement from the status quo, if only it weren’t a performance we had seen before, which started promisingly and ended disastrously. 

Mohamed Khatami ascended to the presidency in 1997 with all of the same fanfare. For the first time the Iranian people had elected a populist—someone who would represent their interest inside the insular establishment. Two years later, when students rioted over the closure of a reformist newspaper, their would-be advocate stood blithely by as the regime brutally crushed the demonstrations. Adding insult to injury, Khatami declined giving a speech at Tehran University the following year. The great reformist hope proved to be a feckless pawn in the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamanei’s calculating game. Khamanei effectively destroyed Khatami’s reputation with the people and dismantled the reformist movement Khatami had helped to build.

Sixteen years later, and how easily we forget. Following news of the Rouhani victory, former British foreign secretary David Miliband tweeted, “Iran's managed democracy has produced a result more democratic than managed. Real opportunity for transparent and respectful diplomacy now.” A spokesperson for the National Iranian American Council in Washington, DC claimed that “Rouhani’s victory in 2013 is the Iranian equivalent to Obama’s victory in 2008: an electorate that voted overwhelmingly for hope and change, understanding that the process will be a marathon, not a sprint.” But these admirably optimistic analyses fail to account for history.

If we look at how the Supreme Leader manipulated Khatami, we can guess what might happen next. Khamanei will likely use Rouhani to buy time by creating a false sense of optimism about changes on the horizon, using moderate rhetoric to lure everyone back to the negotiating table. But ultimately, Rouhani has little real power over Khamanei. It’s unlikely that Rouhani will have any ability to influence Iranian nuclear or foreign policy, which are set by the Supreme Leader. And just as the international community and the Iranian people observe what appears to be Rouhani making real progress, Khamanei will undermine his authority and leave him incapable of challenging policies over which he has no real control. 

Even if we were to give Rouhani the benefit of the doubt that he is the moderate he claims to be, Iran needs a president who is willing to directly and openly challenge the Supreme Leader. Historically this doesn’t go over very well. Two prominent moderates, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, are both under house arrest for standing up to the regime during the Green Revolution in 2009. And the late Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montezari not only lost his status as Ayatollah Khomeini’s anointed successor, but also spent his final years living under some combination of house arrest and forced isolation for challenging the regime’s foreign and domestic policies. 

How far is Rouhani willing to go to push a moderate agenda? Given that the Guardian Council approved his candidacy in the first presidential election since the revolution that nearly toppled the regime in 2009, probably not very far. And while the regime may have actually been surprised by Rouhani’s victory, the Guardian Council would never have approved any candidate unless they were certain that he could be controlled. Let’s also remember that as a cleric in Iran, Rouhani benefits from the current system of clerical supremacy, even if he claims to be a voice of moderation. 

Is the nuclear issue the exception where Rouhani may be willing to challenge Khamanei both publicly and privately? It’s unlikely that Rouhani would obstruct such a popular policy except insofar as Khamenei hopes to tease the international community with hints of a deal. Sanctions are having a crippling impact on the Iranian economy, which gives the regime a significant incentive to exchange promises of reform and progress on nuclear negotiations for economic relief. In particular, Khamanei may decide that Rouhani is a useful vehicle for gaining economic breathing room if his moderate posturing can be used as a bargaining chip to get sanctions on the central bank lifted. 

If the regime decides to reengage with negotiations on the nuclear program, the international community should be wary of Tehran’s long history of maintaining secret enrichment facilities and cheating the international non-proliferation regime. The Supreme Leader has been consistent in his support of the nuclear program, a commitment that only deepened after he saw Muammar Gadaffi relinquish his weapons of mass destruction and get summarily executed by rebels who were supported by NATO bombing. For Khamanei, the nuclear program protects Iran against invasion and represents just about the only regime policy that the majority of citizens support.

So while Rouhani is certainly an improvement over Ahmadinejad, it would be shortsighted to celebrate this election as a sure sign of real change. History teaches us that politics in Iran is an opaque charade controlled by the ruling elite, who all essentially play for the same team regardless of how moderate they claim to be. This regime is frighteningly good at delaying progress and preventing foreign intervention in its affairs. If the regime effectively markets Rouhani’s victory as a sign of real progress, the international community ought to be careful not to mistake hollow gestures for real reform. 

Which isn’t to say that we should surrender any hope of real progress in Iran. The people are growing tired of the regime, international isolation, and economic hardship; we just don’t know what the breaking point is. The challenge the international community faces is how to engage productively with the new regime without mistaking cosmetic reform for real change. 
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Jared Cohen

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Great OMG tech story of the day: The DNS administrator in the Central African Republic (basically the guy that keeps the Internet running there) is an OBGYN by day and a system administrator by night. He keeps the DNS server -- a Dell computer -- beneath his desk. If it fails, so does the Internet in Central African Republic.
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+Mooser philip an obstetrician / gynecologist (a physician who delivers babies).  So that seems like a stretch to keeping the web running for a country :)
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Great OMG tech story of the day: The DNS administrator in the Central African Republic (basically the guy that keeps the Internet running there) is an OBGYN by day and a system administrator by night. He keeps the DNS server -- a Dell computer -- beneath his desk. If it fails, so does the Internet in CAR (+Eric Schmidt)
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In The New Digital Age we talk about states using fabricated online dirt to harass their population. In China that proved less of a prediction than a current event as fake content is being used for extortion and fueling corruption http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/18/world/asia/true-or-faked-dirt-on-chinese-fuels-blackmail.html?hp&_r=0
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You already posted that here a few minutes ago.
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In his circles
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Tune in for a Keynote on Air w/Eric Schmidt Mon, 10/21 as part of the Google Ideas summit http://goo.gl/Lm0lOa  #ideassummit
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БАГИ ЮТУБА почините
https://plus.google.com/109074690948020294813/posts/Yk4NWCmPcFG 8(((((((((((
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Jared Cohen

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Great OMG tech story of the day: The DNS administrator in the Central African Republic (basically the guy that keeps the Internet running there) is an OBGYN by day and a system administrator by night. He keeps the DNS server -- a Dell computer -- beneath his desk. If it fails, so does the Internet in CAR
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+Jared Cohen - When I tell people facts about the living conditions in Africa, they go: Why should I care?
Is there a motivation pitch for people who don't have the same moral values as we do?
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Is this the new Nigerian money scam?
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People
In his circles
104 people
Have him in circles
6,642 people
Work
Employment
  • Google
    Director, Google Ideas, 2010 - present
  • State Department
    Member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, 2006 - 2010
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Story
Tagline
The 21st century is all about surprises
Bragging rights
Books: One Hundred Days of Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide (Rowman & Littlefield, 2007); Children of Jihad (Penguin, 2007); and forthcoming, Empire of the Mind (Knopf)
Education
  • University of Oxford
    M.Phil, International Relations, 2004 - 2006
  • Stanford University
    BA, History; BA, Political Science, 2000 - 2004
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