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Sal Sredni
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EUR/USD Analysis by Brian Kahn

Fundamentals first. Claims came is as expected, but what I take away from this is that they aren't improving. Tomorrow we have inflation data, but as the Federal Reserve has said, there isn't any inflation out there and if there was, we created it by weakening our dollar and we rather have a weak dollar that possibly provides growth. Speaking of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke was on the docket today, but I guess it wasn't anything market moving as I will show below in the technical analysis section.

I have lectured quite a few times on the real inflation that isn't measured such as the cost of education and other costs such as health benefits and prescriptions and certain consumer necessities. As "austerity measures" are taken in various regions of the world and cuts are made in budgets (people), what happens to the service we are used to seeing? That answer remains to be seen, but I have a feeling we will see more layoffs as a result of austerity measures.

Technically, the story is pretty easy to read in forex and equities. Let's look at the EUR/USD which is so damaged. Really? Have you taken a look at it over the past few months? It hasn't done anything really as far as the news that is out there about the impending doom. Why hasn't it gone down more since it could be "going out of business"? Because there isn't a great choice other than maybe the AUD as far as interest rates go and for right now, a solid economy.


Looking at the equity markets, we have a similar pattern. We broke down through one support level and now are coming back up to it. Overall, until we break 1350, that is a pretty strong support level given the past few trading days and the buying that came in at that level:


I am going to make sure I keep an eye on economic data and listen to the news wires for any announcements about interest rate changes, QE, austerity measures, etc...

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Coach Brian

Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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The latest forex commentary from Raghee:
Raghee Horner:

Exhausted EUR/USD Could Be Ripe For Fade

Looking at two extremes, my 15-minute chart and the daily, there seems to be a commonality: The EUR/USD looks a little tired here. If that’s the case, what does this say about risk and today’s doji candle on the daily dollar?

The EUR/USD is chopping along on the 15-minute chart and this alone would be a market phase that I would consider for an aggressive “distribution fade” entry short as prices seem to be stuck in a range. The range reflects the lack of organized sentiment and momentum without which there is no trend.

The fade short set up would trigger as prices trade up into the highs of the range as the Stochastics read overbought (above 80).

The 15-minute chart has a “two to four o’clock” 34EMA Wave angle which indicates the likelihood for exhaustion as prices reach both the top and bottom of the range. The range highs are current in play as the Stochastics climb towards 80 and an overbought reading.

Continue reading full article (with charts):

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The latest AUD/USD commentary from Raghee Horner:
Raghee Horner:

Monday, Feb 13, 2012
The dominant trend (or Directional Bias as I call it) is still bullish in the AUD/USD which in turn makes today’s move lower a correction. In fact it was the correction lower to 1.0639 on Friday that triggered an aggressive swing buy at the 20 period SMA on the daily chart. Here are two views - one bullish and one bearish - on this pair.

Depending on your outlook - short-term or long-term, bullish or bearish - there’s a little something for everyone today in the AUD/USD.

Breaking down each trade individually means that there are some bigger picture views to respect, namely the intact uptrend on the pair. The daily uptrend means that a short would be counter-trend. Trading counter-trend - for me - is strictly limited to shorter-term time frames like the five, 15, and 30-minute charts. So the trend reversal which is a Wave Reversal as well on the 15-minute chart is shorting opportunity.

The combination of the 34 period EMA low being broken with a -100 reading on the 20 period CCI triggered a Wave Reversal. This is an intraday, counter-trend entry.
Continue reading the full article (with charts):

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