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The Smart Way to Transfer Money Internationally, at Better Rates than the Banks
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In Asia, China released its CPI data with y/y posting at 1.2% missing the forecast of 1.3% and below the previous of 1.5%.  Deflation is starting to creep in even as China has added stimulus measures to boost its economy.  The Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback after machine tool orders showed a 15% y/y jump. This is a leading indicator on business confidence and also for a better future outlook.  
The seasonally adjusted Swiss unemployment rate came in at 3.3%, which is derived from the number of people actively looking for a job in their labour force.  Questions are starting to surface about when the SNB will act, as we also had Swiss CPI data y/y showing deflation is a risk printing at 1.2%.  The strong franc and deflation are presenting a problem which puts pressure on the SNB for a sustainable recovery.  Euro zone GDP posted a 1%, which was right in line with expectations and its previous release.  Also, the UK trade balance figures were slightly better than expected, resulting in the pound to trade on the top side of its range today against the greenback.  
Greece released a proposal to pay back its debt burden which included a lending extension out as far as March 2016.  This was quickly dismissed by the European Commission and sends Greece back to the drawing board.
In Canada today we have no fundamental economic releases, while in the US we have the JOLTS Job openings and Wholesale Inventories at 10am.  The big mover here this morning is on the commodities side of the market with oil trading up 2 dollars on the day at 59.25 currently for WTI.  The USDCAD pair has already traded in is average true range from 1.2440 to 1.2323.
Today’s anticipated mid-market trading range is 1.2320 to 1.2415.
Oil (WTI)                     59.53, 2.39%%
Gold                         1,180.15, -0.55%
Silver                           16.04, -0.51%
Copper                         2.707,  +0.37%
Dollar Index              95.47, 0.3%
Current Mid-Market Levels                  
CAD 1.2343
EUR 1.1236
JPY 124.13
GBP 1.5329
CHF 0.9311
AUD  0.7689
NZD 0.7144
EUR/CAD 1.3870
GBP/CAD 1.8886
CAD/MXN 12.63
AUD/CAD 0.9492

#exchangerates   #currencytrading   #economy  

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The big currency mover overnight was the pound as the exit polls in the UK show the conservatives holding the lead on what looks to be a minority government.  Conservative party's policy promises hold key visions to which sectors might do well among FTSE stocks and pound.  For this reason we have seen the pound catch a bid and it moved a big figure higher against the greenback and traded over 1.55 today.  Currently we have seen a 73 percent retracement factor from the move after the UK Trade Balance figures.  Data showed that the UK economy is bring in more imports then were exports for March, this indicate less foreign buyers for UK goods, less currency needed and the pound weakens.  In Germany we saw trade balance figures slightly lower but still a strong reading with a positive 19.3 B for March.
The focus today turns to North America with jobs data out for Canada and the United States this morning at 8:30. Consensus has -2.5K for Canadian employment and +223K for U.S. Job starts.  This would show the unemployment rate in Canada rise slightly to 6.9% and the U.S. Unemployment rate would drop to 5.4% from 6.8% and 5.5% respectively.  FOMC member William Dudley speak today at 9:45, and is a voting member on policy as he is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Volatility on the USDCAD mid market range is always expected on jobs data day, 1.2035 to 1.2186.

#currencyexchange   #exchangerates  

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It was William Dudley the New York Federal Reserve President and voting member that caused a USD rally yesterday from comments he made in his speech at the Reuters Newsmaker Event.  The market was expecting dovish sentiment from the minutes at the last Federal Reserve meeting to be released hours later, so when  Dudley stated that it would be very likely that the FED would raise rate in the U.S. this year the greenback rallied against it major trading peers.  Also adding the Canadian dollar woes continued after oil inventories come in at 10.2m barrels a surplus of 7m barrels over expectation not a good senario for the CAD which fell a full penny within the hour after the 10:30am release.  The FED Minutes showed a 50/50 split for a rate hike in June backing Dudley's comments and keeping the U.S. elevated for the balance of the session and though the overnight.  
Germany Industrial Production and Trade Balance data having little to no effect on the Euro.  Industrial production printed a 0.3% and the trade balance data for Germany was 19.7 billion about 400 million below the expectations.  The Greek finance minister Varoufakes is in the headlines saying he does not favour a Greece exit from the eurozone.  Euro/dollar is trading at 1.0766 as we write.  
The Bank of England kept interest rates at their record lows on Thursday as policy makers wait to see whether the fall in inflation is short-lived or turns into a bigger threat for the British economy. BoE’s quantitative easing remains flat at 375 bln GBP in line with previous months.
Today in Canada we had building permits m/m expectations were for 3.4% and actual was -0.9% weak number to say the least, but noted is the fact that these numbers are for the reference period of February 2015( we were in a deep freeze in Ontario so no surprise here).  For the U.S. we have weekly Unemployment claims which came in close to expectations at 281 on individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Expected mid-market trading range 1.2480 to 1.2590.
Oil (WTI)                     51.09, +1.33%
Gold                         1,199.01, -0.19%
Silver                           16.29,  -1.165%
Copper                         2.732,  0.00%
Dollar Index              98.20, +0.13%
Current Mid-Market Levels                 
CAD 1.2540
EUR 1.0750
JPY 120.08
GBP 1.4793
CHF 0.9707
AUD  0.7725
NZD 0.7590
EUR/CAD 1.3479
GBP/CAD 1.8556
AUD/CAD 0.9688

#currencypairs   #currencytrading   #exchangerate  

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The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. The statement spoke specifically of continued weakness for the AUD, ‘Available information suggest that growth is continuing at a below trend pace” and further Australian dollar “seems likely, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.” Surprisingly the Aussie has managed to gain ground on the day following a healthy retail sales release.  Eurozone services PMI data came in just shy of expectations at 54.2 with Spain, Italy and Germany all beating analysts forecast. Despite the positive headline data the Euro remains under pressure as Italy and France data was well below expectations. Adding to this the market is on edge as we await the Euro Group will meet tomorrow with Greece being the key agenda item.
Surprisingly USDCAD continues to hover around the 1.25 level despite WTI oil trading comfortably above $50 pbl over the last 24 hours. We currently have FOMC member Kocherlakota (dove) speaking. His comments appear to be in line with his stance however the USD is gaining ground at the moment. I anticipate that once he is finished we should see the pair move back below the 1.25 level. At 10 AM we will have the US JOLTS Job Openings report which economists are calling for slightly negative reading from 5.00M to 5.01M.
Expected mid-market trading range 1.2425 to 1.2530.
Oil (WTI)                     51.66, -0.82%
Gold                         1,209.57, -0.41%
Silver                           16.87,  -0.55%
Copper                         2.7470,  +0.0139
Dollar Index              97.62, +0.57
Current Mid-Market Levels                 
CAD 1.2506
EUR 1.0852
JPY 120.22
GBP 1.4888
CHF 0.9617
AUD  0.7637
NZD 0.7523
EUR/CAD 1.3572
GBP/CAD 1.8621
AUD/CAD 0.9548

#currencytrading   #exchangerate  

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Fundamentals this trading sessions have been positive starting with Japanese Consumer Confidence at 40.7, this added strength to the Yen and contributed to the USDJPY retrace back down to the 121.00 level from session highs of 121.66.  Public Bank of China took major step towards liberalization with suggestions that deposit rates will continue to be lifted.  This week we have seen the European Central Bank take unprecedented steps to ease monetary policy through asset purchases in order to fight deflation with asset backed security purchases of 60 billion euro per month.  The hard facts on inflation out of Germany and France both increased to positive territory after dwindling from the previous month and over the last year respectively.  The EURO strengthened from it 12 year, and session, lows of 1.0495 to back above the 1.0635 level against the greenback.
The USD dollar has seen some pressure and a sell off as traders look at the USD strength, which could slow the possibility of a FED interest rate hike.  There is a natural curb to inflation when a country’s currency is so strong, policy makers in the US understand this and may be more dovish in their comments next week as currency strength replaces an interest rate hike.  The FOMC releases its economic projections statement, announcing its fund rate and will hold a press conference on Wednesday March 18th.   Market participants are taking profit today and covering positions in anticipation of Yellen removing the word “patience” from the statement and again driving home the fact that even with “patience” removed the FED can keep rates at all-time lows.  For the second time in less than a month USDCAD traded up at it 52-week high again yesterday so it’s not a big surprise that we are seeing a pull back today, it will become a matter of how far the pull back is before the overall underlying issues come back into play again and the USD bulls push the greenback further higher.
Expected mid-market trading range 1.2559 to 1.2675.
Oil (WTI)                     48.43, +0.50%
Gold                         1,157.68, +0.18%
Silver                           15.63,  -0.79%
Copper                         2.661,  +1.81%
Dollar Index              99.03, -0.67
Current Mid-Market Levels                  
CAD 1.2652
EUR 1.0630
JPY 120.90
GBP 1.4971
CHF 1.0009
AUD  0.7707
NZD 0.7405
EUR/CAD 1.3452
GBP/CAD 1.8947
CAD/MXN 12.27
AUD/CAD 0.9752

#currencytrading   #currencyexchange   #exchangerates  

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The USD has gained against the majors through today’s trading as markets position for the EU Fin Min meeting regarding Greece. Although the Greece PM has stepped back considerably from his election platform he still is significantly offside with his expectations for a potential debt swap structure. Watch for headlines to cause volatility throughout the remainder of the European session.
Deputy BOC Governor Wilkins speech yesterday continued with the dovish tone from the Central Bank and confirmed the markets bets that we could be looking at another 25 point rate cut at the March 4th meeting. One of the key points shared by Wilkins was that the BOC model for economic outlook is based on oil stabilizing at $60 pbl, currently acting as an additional negative for the Loonie. Adding to the Loonies woes was WTI oil failing to break above the 50 day moving average ($53.14) and retracing back below $50 pbl. This could be some market jitters ahead of Crude Oil Inventories being released at 10:30 this morning. The economist predict a drop in inventories from 6.3M barrels to 3.7M which if they become reality should help to bring oil back above $50.
Expected mid-market trading range 1.2425 to 1.2530.

#currencytrading   #currencyexchange   #exchangerate  

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USDJPY continues to hold onto its recent range in the 117’s and now that the BOJ is not the most dovish Central Bank on the street there is room for the pair to move into the 116’s in the coming months. The Aussie dollar has stabilized and surprisingly gained some ground ahead of CPI data tonight that is expected to show a decrease from 0.5% to 0.3%. This along with the expectation of a dovish message from the RBA on Feb 2nd should keep the currency under pressure throughout the week. Comments from Swiss National Bank member Danthine that they have room to intervene on the CHF as he does not feel the currency has stabilized led to some interesting volatility overnight. EUR has retraced a portion of the losses following the Greek elections as the message from the real decision makers is that there is no breaks for the Greek debt on the horizon. The downward trend for Euro remains intact as the QE program will be the main driver of the currency from here.
USDCAD tested the 1.2500 or 80 cent level last night highlighting that this key psychological level is acting like a magnet for the pair. Focus is beginning to turn to the FOMC meeting starting today and the statement at 2:00 PM tomorrow. Expectation is the central bank will stick to the same message which will be supportive of the USD. After the recent surprises from other banks in the last few weeks the market will be on edge as the announcement approaches. With no domestic data on deck for Canada our Loonie will continue to be driven by oil and the US data being released today, ( Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales). Nest levels of resistance for USDCAD are 1.2520 and 1.2683 (Jan 2004 low). To see any t retracement for the pair we need to observe a close below 1.2340.
Expected mid-market trading range 1.2420 to 1.2515.
Oil (WTI)                     45.07, -0.18%
Gold                         1,283.96, +0.30%
Silver                           17.95,  +0.13%
Copper                         2.5143,  -0.0354
Dollar Index              94.54, -0.41
Current Mid-Market Levels                  
CAD 1.2467
EUR 1.1315
JPY 117.75
GBP 1.5126
CHF 0.9007
AUD  0.7940
NZD .7431
EUR/CAD 1.4110
GBP/CAD 1.8875
CAD/MXN 11.72
AUD/CAD 0.9904

#currencypairs   #currencytrading   #exchangerate  
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