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Bill McBride
Worked at Calculated Risk
Attended UC Irvine
Lives in orange county, ca
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Bill McBride

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House Prices to National Average Wage Index
One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there is always a question on what income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income o...
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Bill McBride

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New Tool from Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The Atlanta Fed has introduced a nowcast of GDP called GDPNow . The model mimics the BEA's methods to estimate GDP and is updated five to six times a month as data is released. The model tends to converge to the BEA estimate just before the BEA advance es...
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Bill McBride

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Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We?
A speech from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We? Here is his conclusion: The United States is making significant progress in strengthening the financial system and reducing the probability of future financial crises ....
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FNC: Residential Property Values increased 8.2% year-over-year in May
In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. FNC released their May index data today.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values...
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 304,000
The DOL reports : In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 315,000. The 4-week moving average was 311,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the...
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Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales down 11%, Cash Sales down Sharply, Inventory up 43%
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in June were down 11% year-over-year and at t...
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Bill McBride

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Update: Framing Lumber Prices
Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. Then prices declined over 25% from the highs by mid-year 2013. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housi...
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate up 4.4%, RevPAR up 9.0% in Latest Survey
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 5 July In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rate increased 4.4 percent to 66.0 percent. Average daily rate increased 4.5 percent to finish the week at US$112.40. Revenue per av...
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Sacramento Housing in June: Total Sales down 4% Year-over-year, Equity Sales up 13%, Active Inventory increases 91%
Several years ago I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales).  For a long time, not much changed. But over the last 2+ years we've seen some significant changes with a dramatic sh...
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Trulia: Asking House Prices up 8.1% year-over-year in June
From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: Despite Home Price Slowdown, Wages Can’t Keep Up With Prices In June 2014, prices were up 8.1% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter, compared with 9.5% and 3.1%, respectively, in June 2013 . ... But despite thi...
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Here is an updated housing and mortgage forecast from Goldman Sachs economist Hui Shan: Housing at half time: activity picks up while prices slow down There are clear signs of house price growth deceleration. Across various indices, year over year appreciat...
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FOMC Minutes: QE3 Expected to End in October
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17-18, 2014 . Excerpt: Some committee members had been asked by members of the public whether, if tapering in the pace of purchases continues as expected, the final reduction would come in a s...
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