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Bill McBride
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Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes Mortgage rates were just slightly higher today, leaving them roughly in the center of a range that's persisted since mid-November. During that time the average top-...

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Chemical Activity Barometer increases in February
Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Continues Steady Climb; Consumer and Business Confidence Strengthening The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading ...

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Peak Renter
It was six years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive . The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2...

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Mortgage Debt as Percent of GDP
Yesterday I excerpted from a post I wrote in February 2005 (yes, 12 years ago). In that 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph. First, from 2005: The following chart ...

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Monday Night Futures
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017 • Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery" • Demographics and GDP From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures : S&P futures are up 4, and DOW futures are up 29 (fair value). Oil prices were down slig...

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Post from 2005: Mortgage Debt and the "Recovery"
Here are some excerpts from a post I wrote in February 2005 (hard to believe this was 12 years ago). Note: I think I've improved the graphs since then!  From 2005: The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has ...

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Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 33% Year-over-year
Fannie and Freddie reported results last week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs). Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 11,418 at the end of Q4 2106 compared to 17,004 at the end of Q4 2015. For Freddie, this is down 85% fro...

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Don't like the data? Change it!
From the WSJ: Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade Deficit The Trump administration is considering changing the way it calculates U.S. trade deficits, a shift that would make the country’s trade gap appear larger than it had in pa...

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Demographics and GDP
Two years ago I wrote: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% . As I noted, "One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with t...

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Schedule for Week of Feb 19, 2017
The key economic report this week are January New and Existing Home sales. ----- Monday, Feb 20th ----- All US markets are closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday. ----- Tuesday, Feb 21st----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Wednesda...
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