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Bill McBride
Worked at Calculated Risk
Attended UC Irvine
Lives in orange county, ca
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Bill McBride

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
Monday Night from 9:00 to 10:30 PM: the First Presidential Debate at Hofstra University in New York. From Politifact Live fact-checking the first Trump, Clinton presidential debate From the NY Times: How The New York Times Will Fact-Check the Debate Tuesday...
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Bill McBride

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A few Comments on August New Home Sales
The new home sales report for August was strong at 609,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest for the month of August since 2007 - and the second highest sales rate since January 2008 (only last month was higher).  However combi...
The new home sales report for August was strong at 609,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest for the month of ...
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Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.4% in July, Up 5.3% year-over-year
Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), exclu...
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Vehicle Sales Forecast: Sales to Rebound in September
The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Monday, October 3rd. Note:  There were 25 selling days in September, the same as in September 2015. From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. SAAR to Rebound in September The forecast 17.6 million SAAR is greater t...
The automakers will report September vehicle sales on Monday, October 3rd. Note: There were 25 selling days in September, the same as in ...
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FDIC Closes Bank in Arkansas; Fifth Failed Bank of 2016
From the FDIC: Today's Bank, Huntsville, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Allied Bank Mulberry, Arkansas Allied Bank, Mulberry, Arkansas, was closed today by the Arkansas State Banking Department, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corpor...
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Unemployment and Wages: "A Dirty Little Secret"
I'm reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is "dirty" in the sense that it is unspoken. Highe...
I'm reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn't much of a secret that Wall Street and cor...
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Duy on the Fed: "December Looking Good. But ..."
From Tim Duy: December Looking Good. But ... FOMC doves squeezed out another victory at last week’s meeting. But can they do it again in December? As was widely expected, the Fed held rates steady at the September FOMC meeting. That said, the meeting was cl...
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New Home Sales decreased to 609,000 Annual Rate in August
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 609 thousand. The previous three months were revised down by a total of 4 thousand (SAAR). "Sales of new single-family houses in August 2016 were at a sea...
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 609 thousand. The previous three m...
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Monday: New Home Sales, Presidential Debate
I mentioned this on twitter earlier today: I spoke to a local infill spec builder yesterday who has been asking me for advice for several years (and happy with my advice!).  The builder brought up the election ... The spec builder told me he was thinking of...
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Schedule for Week of Sept 25, 2016
The key economic report this week is August New Home Sales. Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Also the third estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. For manufacturing, the Sep...
The key economic report this week is August New Home Sales. Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August, and the Ca...
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 39 states in August
From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2016. In the past
month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in nine, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffu...
From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2016. In t...
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Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in August
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in August. On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all ...
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