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Douglas Simpson
Works at Arbitrator, educator, value investor; fan of behavioral finance & economics
Attended Dartmouth College
Lives in Connecticut, Near Hartford
1,663 followers|84,346 views
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Douglas Simpson

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I begin a course in Alternative Risk Transfer tonight at my law school.  One of the themes that the course explores is the Political Economics of shifting cost and risk to parties other than those making the decision.  We explore how societies choose to address hazard, and the (often delayed) consequences of the decisions made consciously or by default.  The Flint situation (time line linked) is a case study on the order of so many others, such as the systematic flaws in the operation of the flood control systems in New Orleans, in which the interests of some were sacrificed for those of others.
A timeline shows how the crisis has unfolded since 2013.
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“A dose of populism is healthy for any democracy,” Mr. Bernanke writes. “But in extreme forms, on either the left or the right, populism can also lead to cynical manipulation of legitimate public anger and to contempt for facts and logical argument. When these aspects of populism dominate political discourse, good governance is nearly impossible.”
A recurring theme in Mr. Bernanke’s book is frustration with dissenters — colleagues at the Fed who disagreed with interventionism in a public way.
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Due diligence I need to follow full article. Mr. Paulsen was cracking, Mr. Bernanke was at the helm. My humble opinion.
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From The Guardian's review of Richard Thaler's new book on Behavioral Economics, quoting:  "In his new book, Thaler tells the gripping story of his own career in economics and the development of the new behaviourally influenced branch. And yes, I did say “gripping”. As a natural writer with an eye for the telling anecdote or chance for a joke, Thaler has produced a novelised intellectual history, replete with heroes and villains, triumphs and disasters, conflicts and comradeship."  endquote.  His eyes were first opened as a grad student reading an early paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.   #BehavioralEconomics   #Kahneman   #Tversky   #Nudge   #RichardThaler  
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Its in the inherited brain wiring.  Kahneman and Tversky explain it all in "Thinking, Fast and Slow".
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Those new to #EU4 will find the Wiki dedicated to it extremely useful. As a Wiki, it invites user edits and contributions. Here's the link.
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Thanks
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As Zurich's Michael Kerner says in this article, the influx of capital from investors in #catastrophebonds  has made the insurance system more able to withstand a natural catastrophe.  Until a big natural catastrophe, when these "weak hands" are likely to experience big losses and withdraw, leaving the market underpriced and short of capital.  At which time, "strong hands" will return at higher prices. Its all happened before, and it will happen again.   #InsuranceCycle  
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Naive capital. Just like when they loosened the liquidity requirement at Lloyds. It put a bunch of nice artwork on the auction block!
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The Property-Casualty (P/C) insurance cycle is a perennial reality ... not necessarily linked to the economic cycle, it is a complex beast.  One of the various inputs is the prevailing interest rate.  Insurers that plan to make most of their profits by investing their "float" (premiums received and held in excess of claims paid) see the investment return falling.   Prospects that rates will stay low for long periods pressure many "cash flow underwriters" to drop insurance prices to get more "float."  Many write far below cost, in hopes that a greater fool will "blink" first.  Sometimes the Game of Chicken ends in a spectacular crash.  When enough fail, prices tend to rebound as rationality returns, and those with 'capacity' (e.g. Berkshire Hathaway) can name their own terms and make strong underwriting profits.  It happened before, it happens again .... the cycle has been a surety for generations.  What is uncertain is when it will turn, and which companies will suffer and either fail or fall into the hands of a corporate raider, with job losses all around.   #insurance   #underwritingcycle  
Competitive pressures in large parts of the global insurance industry have become so intense that some underwriters risk failing if prices fall further, the head of the sector’s largest broker in Europe has warned. Steep declines in premium levels
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Douglas Simpson

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Chris Hayes talks to LIn-Manuel Miranda, the creator of the off-Broadway smash hit "Hamilton" about the genius of Alexander Hamilton and Miranda's five years spent writing the hip-hop musical heading from off-Broadway to Broadway this summer.

We saw it ... awesome. Of course, I have long thought "Ham" a major genius and founding father.
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Don't let the "Know-Nothings" pitch the plain lie that "China is stealing all our business and manufacturing."
Solar City, co-founded by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, is bucking a trend by bringing production of its most-cutting-edge solar panels to the U.S.
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commented on a video on YouTube.
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U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs and seriously injured her arm in combat in Iraq, shames contractor claiming disabled vet status due to his twisting his ankle in prep school.

Douglas Simpson

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Ahhhh .... the smell of another plump leveraged hostile bid offer!
Anyone else smell a "top"?
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These dollar stores thrive in cities and inner ring suburbs. There has been a population shift to higher density as of late. I believe this recent activity is in speculation that this trend continues. As cites gentrify Dollar General may be able to overcome a highly leveraged position by selling higher margin goods to a more affluent customer.  Just a thought.
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Headline in Financial Times this AM:  "US Economy Roars Back"  Lead story at Reuters this afternoon after the close of the NYSE:  "S&P 500 Posts Worst Day Since April."  .... "Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News?"
#contrarianinvesting   #financialmarkets  
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I was completely surprised by the move Thursday.  I thought the days of overreacting to the Fed were past.

Worse though, Friday's move lower was based on personal income numbers being "good" again.  In other words wage pressure- you know, what's good for main street, is bad for wall street.

WTF ?!?!?

Well, not really- its definitely contrarian :)  Kind of disturbing too though.
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Now, the real questions:  1)  will any significant number of Americans take the time to study this material and 2)  will it have any measurable effect on political activities?
“A free browser extension for Chrome, Firefox, and Safari that exposes the role money plays in Congress. Displays on any web page detailed campaign contribution data for every Senator and Representative, including total amount received and breakdown by industry and by size of donation.
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Hello ,
Thanks for sharing . Interesting .
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Have him in circles
1,663 people
Walter Carson's profile photo
Habyarimana Alphonse's profile photo
Dan Smith's profile photo
SANJIB GOSWAMI's profile photo
Kelley Johnson's profile photo
Carlos Hernandez's profile photo
DCD Agency's profile photo
Alex Tyler's profile photo
Aaron Hanson (RV)'s profile photo
Work
Occupation
Arbitrator, Educator
Skills
Insurance regulatory law
Employment
  • Arbitrator, educator, value investor; fan of behavioral finance & economics
    Self-employed, 2003 - present
  • The Hartford
    Counsel, 1978 - 2003
  • U.S. Army
    Lieutenant, 1970 - 1972
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Connecticut, Near Hartford
Previously
Atlanta - Park Ridge - Detroit - Indianapolis - South Bend - London, UK
Story
Tagline
“Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.” ― Warren Buffett
Introduction
For 30 years, Doug provided legal counsel to management of insurance companies and brokers; he now arbitrates disputes, teaches an LLM course, studies history, finance and economics and tries to enjoy life during the remainder. 

Married 30+ years, our daughter is teaching sixth grade outside Boston.

Influential books/writers: 
Alexrod, "Evolution of Cooperation"
Christensen, "The Innovator's Dilemma"
Diamond, "Collapse:  How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed"
Olson, "The Rise and Decline of Nations"
Kahneman, "Thinking Fast and Slow"
Fisher, "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits"
Graham, "The Intelligent Investor"
Bragging rights
Co-author of "Creating an Antitrust Compliance Program -- Checklist of Issues," Checklists for Corporate Counsel, Business Laws, Inc. (1996), a chapter on Alternative Risk Management in "Research Handbook on International Insurance Law and Regulation," (Edward Elgar, 2012), privately commissioned works on the subject of insurance law and regulation and "Finite Risk Transfer: May Be Habit Forming - Use Only As Directed," in the Mar/Apr 2007 issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Society of Actuaries.. Mr. Simpson is a co-inventor of "Online method and system for fulfilling needs resulting from property and other similar losses," U.S. Patent No. 7,624,031, issued 11/24/2009. "Online method and system for fulfilling needs resulting from property and other similar losses " U.S. Patent #8,135,599 Issued March 13, 2012.
Education
  • Dartmouth College
    Sociology
  • University of Connecticut School of Law
    Law
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Relationship
Married