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James Correia, Jr
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Modelology
My thing is modeling. How do you get forecasters to use more of the tools? And will these tools actually help them? Cause they have to learn the models to use them, and use them often to learn them. Then we get to figure out if any of that was worth it. Sci...
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Notes from AMS 2017 Annual meeting
AMS annual meeting notes and pseudo report: Before I start, let me say that there were a million talks I wanted to see. But because the meeting is huge and I can't just bounce between rooms, because it would require me to move at the speed of light and/or b...
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Notes from AMS 2017 Annual meeting
AMS annual meeting notes and pseudo report: Before I start, let me say that there were a million talks I wanted to see. But because the meeting is huge and I can't just bounce between rooms, because it would require me to move at the speed of light and/or b...
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Reflection on 26 April 2016
Some reflections on "busted" forecasts and some quotes from the Bosart Symposium. From Bosart (2017):  1. "You have to be honest about the forecast." 2. "You aren't going to get better if you aren't honest about where the problems are." 3. "The atmosphere h...
Reflection on 26 April 2016
Reflection on 26 April 2016
drjimmyc.blogspot.com
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Sensitivity and the poor forecasts that follow
I want to ask a different question. Why are we having these struggles in forecasting? Why are these models so sensitive as to make poor forecasts? Many people are of the opinion that models can lead forecasters astray. And those people should win a prize. W...
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Hurricane Matthew
Been testing out some concepts on hurricane Matthew over the last few weeks. The hurricane cone overlaid with GEFS forecasts provides a dual ensemble approach. The GEFS for NWP and the accumulation of cones for the human and/or time lagged ensemble. Integra...
Hurricane Matthew
Hurricane Matthew
drjimmyc.blogspot.com
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Snow forecasting at 120h is hard?
So you like to look at 120h deterministic forecasts from your favorite model. GOOD FOR YOU! My favorites dont go out that far. But when MPAS went out to Day 5 they were fun to look at it. Not just for the immediate future forecast but for the future of fore...
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Work in progress
Who is responsible? {spoiler alert: We all are.} Is that really THE question? Aren't we all a work in progress? Learning about what to worry about? Deciding how many worries we can juggle all at once? Putting perfectly worryable things to the side to concen...
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HWT EFP 2015 & recent past
The 2015 HWT Experimental Forecast Program just ended. We didnt have much opportunity to wander the country like we did in the quiet year of 2014, but it looked amazingly like 2013. Here is a brief comparison: Here is where we operated by centerpoint in 201...
HWT EFP 2015 & recent past
HWT EFP 2015 & recent past
drjimmyc.blogspot.com
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Tornado Summit 2015
Today at the Tornado Summit I listened to a number of good talks. The Emergency Management community was well represented by the National Guard, the Healthcare industry, among many others. The national guard panel (KS, OK, MO were represented) early this mo...
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