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Mark Graph
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Also on twitter @Mark_Graph
Also on twitter @Mark_Graph

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Ipsos 47 to 53 in Labor's favour
The Ipsos monthly poll has been released. It estimates Labor would receive 53 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote if an election was held now. Popping these latest numbers into the aggregation, we get an aggregate estimate of 54.2 to 45.8 per cen...
Ipsos 47 to 53 in Labor's favour
Ipsos 47 to 53 in Labor's favour
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Fifth Morrison poll - second Essenital poll
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Fourth Morrison poll - Second Newspoll
Newspoll is out at the start of another parliamentary sitting fortnight. It's the same headline message as the previous Newspoll. Labor is on 56 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, well ahead of the Coalition on 44 per cent. With these numbers, there ...
Fourth Morrison poll - Second Newspoll
Fourth Morrison poll - Second Newspoll
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Monte Carlo simulation of elections
Between elections, the Australian Election Commission (AEC) redraws the electoral boundaries to ensure each seat has a similar number of voters. Now that this redistribution process has been completed, I can use the new seats to model election outcomes. The...
Monte Carlo simulation of elections
Monte Carlo simulation of elections
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Third Morrison Poll
Roy Morgan has released the results of two recent Morgan polls. The first is dated 18-19 August. The second is dated 25-26 August. They are slightly more benign for the Coalition, with the first TPP estimate at 49.5 per cent and the second at 46 per cent. T...
Third Morrison Poll
Third Morrison Poll
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Second Morrison poll
Essential Media has come in with their poll estimate of the two-party preferred vote share for the government at 45 per cent, compared with Labor on 55 per cent. All but one of the poll-bias adjusted moving averages are starting to turn. Moving to the prima...
Second Morrison poll
Second Morrison poll
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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The first poll of the Morrison period
The first Newspoll of the Morrison Government was a shocker for the Coalition. According to that poll, if an election were held last weekend, Labor would have won 56 per cent of the two party preferred (TPP) vote. If we apply the cube rule , as a rough appr...
The first poll of the Morrison period
The first poll of the Morrison period
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Model updates are coming
The change of party leader necessitates a model change. I need to introduce a discontinuity parameter for the change of leaders from Prime Minister Turnbull to Prime Minister Morrison. Because the current model is written in Stan , the process is subtly dif...
Model updates are coming
Model updates are coming
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Polling aggregation update
The three most recent polls have the Coalition with 49 per cent and Labor with 51 per cent of the two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. My Bayesian polling aggregation model has the Coalition with 48.3 per cent to Labor with 51.7 per cent. If we look at our...
Polling aggregation update
Polling aggregation update
marktheballot.blogspot.com
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Punters largely unmoved by the by-elecctions
Last Saturday's by-election has not really shifted punter sentiments. They think Shorten and Labor more likely to win, but it is actually a reasonably close race. This has not changed hugely since mid April. When I look at betting markets, I tend to treat a...
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