Profile

Cover photo
Julio Sánchez
104 followers|215,455 views
AboutPostsPhotosYouTube

Stream

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Mi cariotipo muestra la inversión pericéntrica inv(12)(p11.2,q13). Mi hermano y uno de mis hijos la tienen también. Si tú también la tienes, puede que seamos parientes. Mándame un mensaje. #genealogía_genética 
 ·  Translate
1
Pilar Sánchez's profile photoJulio Sánchez's profile photo
2 comments
 
Quiere decir que soy un mutante. Los que me conocen ya lo sospechaban.
 ·  Translate
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Still a few missing, but very useful nonetheless...
1
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Cada vez lo ponen más difícil.
 ·  Translate
Por el libre tránsito de los montañeros Solicitamos con urgencia, de la Comunidad de Madrid, garantice de modo claro y fehaciente, el libre tránsito d...
1
Add a comment...
Have him in circles
104 people
Iñigo Aguilar's profile photo
CESESP Formacion's profile photo
Marcelino Somoza's profile photo
Santiago G. V.'s profile photo
Concepción Sorrondegui's profile photo
Borja Lomba's profile photo
David Velasco Fernández's profile photo
Yolanda CRESPO Y GAMÓN's profile photo
Diego Larrouy's profile photo

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Interesante. Via +Andreas Schou​.
 ·  Translate
 
Irresponsible or unavoidable borrowing?

Growing up in Europe, I didn't pay much attention to the construction of the Euro, and whatever little I remember has nothing to do with the economics of it. Now, older, having lived in the US for a while, with a Greek wife, I'm looking at the way the Euro is unraveling and I've been using the opportunity to try to figure out how it works (or, rather, why it doesn't).

The core mechanism that allows multiple states to share the same currency is pretty simple: since the weaker states can't devalue their currency to compensate for their trade deficit with the stronger ones, money has to flow from the stronger economies to the weaker ones in order to maintain the balance.

We see that in the US: as measured in GDP per capita, there's about a 2:1 ratio between the strongest states and the weakest ones. To compensate for that, a lot of money flows between states, through the federal government. Most taxes in the US are federal taxes, i.e. about 75%, and the federal government doesn't necessarily spend the money it collects in the exact states where it collects them. As an example, about 130 billion dollars paid by California in federal taxes don't make it back into California. Texas and New York are the two other states that have a negative balance of more than 100 billion each. For those 3 states, that outflow on money represents 5.7%, 7.2% and 7.4% of their respective GDPs. California is literally sending money to other states so that those states can buy California stuff. The same is true for Texas, New York, and about 20 of the 50 states that are sending money to the other 30.

Looking back in history, the Marshall Plan followed a somewhat similar logic: the US sent aid to Europe, to allow Europeans to buy US goods, which was both a stabilizing mechanism for European currencies that otherwise were in a devaluation spiral, and an outlet for the huge US industrial production. For reference, the Marshall Plan amounted to 120 billion dollars (in today's dollars) over 4 years, which is tiny compared to the amount of money that the federal government now redistributes across state lines.

We can compare that to the situation in the Eurozone/EU, where the GDP per capita varies by a factor of about 2.3:1. Germany's balance in the EU budget is negative by less than 9 billion Euros. France's and Italy's follow at approximately 6.5 billion and 6 billion. Germany's 9 billion Euros is tiny compared to California's 130 billion dollars, especially since Germany's GDP is 60% larger than that of California. Since the US and EU economies have approximately the same size, that's a reasonably apples-to-apples comparison. The biggest negative balance that a Eurozone country has with the EU is about 0.41% of its GDP. The biggest positive balance is 1.3%. Within the US, only 4 states out of 50 fall within that range.

That's the problem right there: Germany is not flowing enough money out to other Eurozone countries to compensate for its own very strong economy. That's true of other rich European countries as well, e.g. Netherlands, Austria, France.

From the Greek point of view, the only way to get that money to flow in order to maintain balance had been for the government to borrow. That wasn't irresponsible borrowing. That was mechanical, predictable. Greece's poor historical discipline around government finances only accelerated an unavoidable process, but it's not a root cause.

In fact, predictably, pushing Greece into austerity made things worse, much worse: with the root cause being Greece's relatively weak economy compared to the rest of the Eurozone, an austerity approach can only put Greece in a position where it needs even more money to flow in in order to maintain balance.

Even if we assume that all of Greece's debts get somehow forgiven with no further constraints and that Greece manages to run a balanced government budget, it would still be in an unsustainable position in the current Eurozone as its weaker economy would force additional money to flow in. Unless the Eurozone very significantly increases the amount of money that it redistributes across borders, Greece should get out of the Euro at the first opportunity, i.e. literally Monday morning, July 6.

Worse, with Greece out, it's only a matter of time for another weak country to find itself in the same position: that might be Portugal, Spain, Italy, or if Bulgaria, Romania or even Hungary join quickly enough that might go through that same death spiral quickly enough to see the Eurozone as a revolving door, with barely enough time to come in before being back out.

Once that first batch of weak countries is out, there'll always be more that'll be at the bottom of the scale and will find themselves in the same position. France is comfortably in the middle of the pack within Europe today, but attrition will eventually push it toward the bottom, and France having to leave the Euro is a true nightmare scenario for everyone.

In order for the Eurozone to survive, its rich members will need to send a lot more money to the poorer ones: the rich ones literally can't continue reaping benefits from a currency based on the European average without sharing those benefits with the poorer ones that bring that European average down. Otherwise, the Euro will consume country after country until it hits a country that is literally too big to fail.
175 comments on original post
1
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

general Discussion  - 
 
My caryotype shows the inv(12)(p11.2,q13) pericentric inversion. My brother and at least one of my children have it too. If you have it and are of Spanish descent, please get in contact with me, we might be related.
1
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Un coche perdió el control y se abalanzó sobre un puesto del mercado, destruyendo su mercancía. La dueña del puesto demandó el conductor y fueron a juicio.

El juez dictaminó la culpabilidad del conductor pero, para calcular el importe de la indemnización preguntó a la mujer:

- Señora, ¿qué mercancía tenía Ud.?
- Huevos, su señoría- contestó.
- ¿Y cuántos tenía?- preguntó el juez.
- Pues, mire Ud., no lo sé con exactitud. Pero si los juntaba de 2 en 2, me sobraba 1. Si los juntaba de 3 en 3, sobraba 1, De 4 en 4, sobraba 1. Y así todos los números hasta juntarlos de 12 en 12, que también me sobraba 1. Pero si los juntaba de 13 en 13, quedaban justos y no sobraba ninguno.

El juez cogió un papel, hizo unos números y estableció el importe de la indemnización.

¿Cómo lo hizo?
 ·  Translate
1
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
Chapeau a los voluntarios, que lo están dando todo por rescatar a Cecilio
 ·  Translate
 
23/09/2014 - 16:00 (Hora Española) Equipo-1: “Nos disponemos a entrar a la cueva…” Los Coordinadores del rescate en el lugar del accidente nos comunican que  han decidido, en base a las dificultades técnicas que plantea ...
1
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
 
This image from the International Space Station shows the Iberian Peninsula including Spain and Portugal at night.

Read more:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/europeanspaceagency/12969772985/

#Iberia   #Spain   #Portugal   #ISS  
2
Jairo Manso's profile photo
 
Preciosa imagen.
 ·  Translate
Add a comment...

Julio Sánchez

Shared publicly  - 
 
+Steve Wozniak señala errores en el guión de la película sobre Steve Jobs
 ·  Translate
 
5 months ago exactly I asked you all what you guys thought of the Jobs movie that had just been released in theatres and I had the honor of Mr. +Steve Wozniak coming on to the post (original comment here https://plus.google.com/+CarmsPerez/posts/GnVTvQNgvpf)
and commenting and explaining what really went on at the time vs what the movie portrayed. I chose to not watch the movie then, however, tonight I rented it simply out of curiosity it was so good to see it knowing his perspective and the account of how things actually happened. I want to thank Mr. Wozniak from the bottom of my heart for every bit of time spent working on creating Apple computers. YOU are the true force behind this operating system which I love so much bc it makes my life so easy.  Thank you for dedicating so much of your youth to this project. Honored once more to have such unique commentary from you on my page. 
Original comment from Steve Wozniak below

Steve Wozniak Aug 19, 2013
"Actually, the movie was largely a lie about me. I was an engineer at HP designing the iPhone 5 of the time, their scientific calculators. I had many friends and a good reputation there. I designed things for people all over the country, for fun, all the time too, including the first hotel movie systems and SMPTE time code readers for the commercial video world. Also home pinball games. Among these things, the Apple I was the FIFTH time that something I had created (not built from someone else's schematic) was turned into money by Jobs. My Pong game got him his job at Atari but he never was an engineer or programmer. I was a regular member at the Homebrew Computer Club from day one and Jobs didn't know it existed. He was up in Oregon then. I'd take my designs to the meetings and demonstrate them and I had a big following. I wasn't some guy nobody talked to, although I was shy in social settings. i gave that computer design away for free to help people who were espousing the thoughts about computers changing life in so many regards (communication, education, productivity, etc.). I was inspired by Stanford intellectuals like Jim Warren talking this way at the club. Lee Felsenstein wanted computers to help in things like the antiwar marches he'd orchestrated in Oakland and I was inspired by the fact that these machines could help stop wars. Others in the club had working models of this computer before Jobs knew it existed. He came down one week and I took him to show him the club, not the reverse. He saw it as a businessman. It as I who told Jobs the good things these machines could do for humanity, not the reverse. I begged Steve that we donate the first Apple I to a woman who took computers into elementary schools but he made my buy it and donate it myself.

When I first met Jobs, I had EVERY Dylan album. I was a hardcore fan. I had bootlegs too. Jobs knew a few popular Dylan songs and related to the phrase "when you ain't got nothin' you got nothing to lose." I showed Jobs all my liner notes and lyrics and took him to record stores near San Jose State and Berkeley to buy Dylan bootlegs. I showed him brochures full of Dylan quotes and articles and photos. I brought Jobs into this Dylan world in a big way. I would go to the right post office at midnight, in Oakland, to buy tickets to a Dylan concert and would take Jobs with me. Jobs asked early on in our friendship whether Dylan or the Beatles were better. I had no Beatles album. We both concurred that Dylan was more important because he said important things and thoughtful things. So a Beatles fan was kind of a pop lamb to us. Why would they portray us in the movie as Dylan for Jobs and Beatles for me?

And when Jobs (in the movie, but really a board does this) denied stock to the early garage team (some not even shown) I'm surprised that they chose not to show me giving about $10M of my own stock to them because it was the right thing. And $10M was a lot in that time.

Also, note that the movie showed a time frame in which every computer Jobs developed was a failure. And they had millions of dollars behind them. My Apple ][ was developed on nothing and productized on very little. Yet it was the only revenue and profit source of the company for the first 10 years, well past the point that Jobs had left. The movie made it seem that board members didn't acknowledge Jobs' great work on Macintosh but when sales fall to a few hundred a month and the stock dives to 50% in a short time, someone has to save the company. The proper course was to work every angle possible, engineering and marketing, to make the Macintosh marketable while the Apple ][ still supported us for years. This work was done by Sculley and others and it involved opening the Macintosh up too.

The movie shows Steve's driving of the Macintosh team but not the stuff that most of the team said they'd never again work for him. It doesn't show his disdain and attempts to kill the Apple ][, our revenue source, so that the Macintosh wouldn't have to compete with it. The movie audience would want to see a complete picture and they can often tell when they are being shortchanged.

And ease of computer came to the world more than anything from Jef Raskin, in many ways and long before Jef told us to look into Xerox. Jef was badly portrayed.

And if you think that our investor and equal stock holder and mentor Mike Markkula was Jobs' stooge (and not in control of everything), well, you have been duped.

Jobs mannerisms and phrases are motivational and you need a driver to move things along. But it's also important to have the skills to execute and create products that will be popular enough to sell for more than it costs to make them. Jobs didn't have that success at Apple until the iPod, although OS X deserves the credit too. These sorts of things people would have wanted to see, about Jobs or about Apple, but the movie gives other images of what was behind it all and none add up." #Apple  
1
Add a comment...
People
Have him in circles
104 people
Iñigo Aguilar's profile photo
CESESP Formacion's profile photo
Marcelino Somoza's profile photo
Santiago G. V.'s profile photo
Concepción Sorrondegui's profile photo
Borja Lomba's profile photo
David Velasco Fernández's profile photo
Yolanda CRESPO Y GAMÓN's profile photo
Diego Larrouy's profile photo
Links
Basic Information
Gender
Male