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Deen Abiola
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I think there's a third option: wake* the road network up. Children playing on the road—anyone crossing—should have ear pieces hooked up to a giant distributed computation from cars running simulations on the next 5 seconds and planning accordingly. It's not far out tech to have that anyone thinking to cross the street must have access to some whispering bayesian network that looks at the conditions of all the cars for some radius and suggests an optimal time to cross, if at all. This will all but disappear the already rare trolley problem. This system would also be able to learn if we put black boxes in cars to gather lots of data on the various more plausible accident scenarios. Assuming car ownership is even still a thing and the car hasn't been hacked, it might decide to not even turn on (thanks to whatever models learned from in-car black boxes) after deeming the probability of loss of control too high.

*I use wake in the loose sense of the emergence of interesting long range coherent oscillations. And something like a kindly giant that moves people out of the way so they're less likely to get stepped on.

I think a big part of the solution will be to stop thinking of cars as individual units and instead start realizing that traffic consisting of self driving cars will be a single extended thing unto itself.
 
Ever since seeing this article a few days ago, it's been bugging me. We know that self-driving cars will have to solve real-life "trolley problems:" those favorite hypotheticals of Philosophy 101 classes wherein you have to make a choice between saving, say, one person's life or five, or saving five people's lives by pushing another person off a bridge, or things like that. And ethicists (and even more so, the media) have spent a lot of time talking about how impossible it will be to ever trust computers with such decisions, and why, therefore, autonomous machines are frightening.

What bugs me about this is that we make these kinds of decisions all the time. There are plenty of concrete, real-world cases that actually happen: do you swerve into a tree rather than hit a pedestrian? (That's greatly increasing the risk to your life -- and your passengers' -- to save another person)

I think that part of the reason that we're so nervous about computerizing these ethical decisions is not so much that they're hard, as that doing this would require us to be very explicit about how we want these decisions made -- and people tend to talk around that very explicit decision, because when they do, it tends to reveal that their actual preferences aren't the same as the ones they want their neighbors to think they have.

For example: I suspect that most people, if driving alone in a vehicle, will go to fairly significant lengths to avoid hitting a pedestrian, including putting themselves at risk by hitting a tree or running into a ditch. I suspect that if the pedestrian is pushing a stroller with a baby, they'll feel even more strongly this way. But as soon as you have passengers in the car, things change: what if it's your spouse? Your children? What if you don't particularly like your spouse?

Or we can phrase it in the way that the headline below does: "Will your self-driving car be programmed to kill you if it means saving more strangers?" This phrasing is deliberately chosen to trigger a revulsion, and if I phrase it instead the way I did above -- in terms of running into a tree to avoid a pedestrian -- your answer might be different. The phrasing in the headline, on the other hand, seems to tap into a fear of loss of autonomy, which I often hear around other parts of discussions of the future of cars. Here's a place where a decision which you normally make -- based on secret factors which only you, in your heart, know, and which nobody else will ever know for sure -- is instead going to be made by someone else, and not necessarily to your advantage. We all suspect that it would sometimes make that decision in a way that, if we were making it secret (and with the plausible deniability that comes from it being hard to operate a car during an emergency), we might make quite differently.

Oddly, if you think about how we would feel about such decisions being made by a human taxi driver, people's reactions seem different, even though there's the same loss of autonomy, and now instead of a rule you can understand, you're subject to the driver's secret decisions. 

I suspect that the truth is this:

Most people would go to more lengths than they expect to save a life that they in some way cared about.

Most people would go to more lengths than they are willing to admit to save their own life: their actual balance, in the clinch, between protecting themselves and protecting others isn't the one they say it is. And most people secretly suspect that this is true, which is why the notion of the car "being programmed to kill you" in order to save other people's lives -- taking away that last chance to change your mind -- is frightening.

Most people's calculus about the lives in question is actually fairly complex, and may vary from day to day. But people's immediate conscious thoughts -- who they're happy with, who they're mad at -- may not accurately reflect what they would end up doing.

And so what's frightening about this isn't that the decision would be made by a third party, but that even if we ourselves individually made the decision, setting the knobs and dials of our car's Ethics-O-Meter every morning, we would be forcing ourselves to explicitly state what we really wanted to happen, and commit ourselves, staking our own lives and those of others on it. The opportunity to have a private calculus of life and death would go away.

As a side note, for cars this is less actually relevant, because there are actually very few cases in which you would have to choose between hitting a pedestrian and crashing into a tree which didn't come from driver inattention or other unsafe driving behaviors leading to loss of vehicle control -- precisely the sorts of things which self-driving cars don't have. So these mortal cases would be vanishingly rarer than they are in our daily lives, which is precisely where the advantage of self-driving cars comes from.

For robotic weapons such as armed drones, of course, these questions happen all the time. But in that case, we have a simple ethical answer as well: if you program a drone to kill everyone matching a certain pattern in a certain area, and it does so, then the moral fault lies with the person who launched it; the device may be more complex (and trigger our subconscious identification of it as being a "sort-of animate entity," as our minds tend to do), but ultimately it's no more a moral or ethical decision agent than a spear that we've thrown at someone, once it's left our hand and is on its mortal flight.

With the cars, the choice of the programming of ethics is the point at which these decisions are made. This programming may be erroneous, or it may fail in circumstances beyond those which were originally foreseen (and what planning for life and death doesn't?), but ultimately, ethical programming is just like any other kind of programming: you tell it you want X, and it will deliver X for you. If X was not what you really wanted, that's because you were dishonest with the computer.

The real challenge is this: if we agree on a standard ethical programming for cars, we have to agree and deal with the fact that we don't all want the same thing. If we each program our own car's ethical bounds, then we each have that individual responsibility. And in either case, these cars give us the practical requirement to be completely explicit and precise about what we do, and don't, want to happen when faced with a real-life trolley problem.
The computer brains inside autonomous vehicles will be fast enough to make life-or-death decisions. But should they? A bioethicist weighs in on a thorny problem of the dawning robot age.
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...The whole point is to move the domain of discourse out of these false dilemmas and start thinking about what sort of new paradigms could evolve. An area with lots of children will result in the network adjusting itself such that the manner of driving makes trolley problems a close to nil occurrence.

It's simple. Self driving cars will make these sort of issues less common (it will also make them more visible). Communicating self driving cars will further reduce these issues. Communicating self driving cars that include humans in their planning and actions over a wide radius, as well as models learnt from the past--all leading to something that functions holistically is best of all.

(Oh and self-aware cars. As in a car that is reluctant to drive based on its level of injury.)
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This is a plus great article pointing out the dangers of getting most of your information on the state of AI (or anything) from press releases. Examples always show the best case scenario and rarely ever acknowledge the existence of pathological cases highlighting how far the methodologies have to go (this is something I don't do, either my examples are representative or I'll mention the limitations). The papers themselves are almost always more balanced.

The Deepmind games for example, are worth looking at in detail: you'll get a more grounded idea of what's possible (limited control/pole balancing games), what's novel (a better value prediction model, good!) and what's merely prestige fodder (cherry picked examples, misleading statements on who's first to first base).

But there is one section where I disagree with the essay.  Quoting:

> To sum up, CNN+RNN technology doesn’t understand numbers or colors. It doesn’t understand meaning of words. It’s nowhere near a real AI - probably closer to ten thousand monkeys striking keys at random in an attempt to replicate Shakespeare’s works.

That's a really unfair assessment. It's absolutely not closer to chaotic playwright monkeys. Random search would not get you to those results in a billion years. So it's closer to intelligence. Animal intelligence. But also very alien and very limited. 

What's been learned is a mapping from pixels to words (vectors) to sequences of words. Ultimately, giant computations on some set of functions. But, but there is real understanding, and even though it's not at all focused on what we would view as most salient or important, it has hooked on some meaningful set of discriminatory features which allow it to reason and make good predictions on examples from the same distribution as the training set. It's also achieved a compression of the data. That compression is a measure of understanding (see Brahe vs. Kepler). Alas, the errors tell us that even this style of understanding could be greatly improved, that the discriminatory features--alien though they might be--are still far from optimal.

I think though, that what people mean when they say it doesn't understand is that it hasn't learned a generative model but also, it hasn't learned a model from which non-trivial differences from the example set can be generated (Kepler vs Newton). In other words, if it really understood then it could tell stories, answer questions and infer non-visible states. Ultimately, though these machine learning models might be able to learn, they can't reason their way out of a paper bag. They're really rather inflexible. It is in that way that they can be both intelligent and incredibly stupid.
What you wanted to know about AI 2015-03-16 Recently a number of famous people, including Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, warned …
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Totally agree with your rebuttal of the million monkeys claim, btw.
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So uhm Re-sharing to issue a correction/clarification by +Larry Tesler who weighed in*, stating:

> What I believe I said (around 1970) was “Intelligence is whatever machines haven't done yet”. If and when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, people might conclude, as you propose, that there is no such thing as intelligence. Or they might simply redefine intelligence as "whatever humans haven't done yet” as they try to catch up with AI.
 
//I'm thinking though, that the humans are not going to be very happy with such a state of affairs, preferring instead, to point out that intelligence is completely overrated anyways. Was it even ever good for anything? 

* So yeah that was totally unexpected. Still getting used to the idea that thanks to the internet, pioneers, once only found in books and archives, can temporarily exist as real people too.
 
Tesler's Theorem states that "AI is whatever hasn't been done yet." From this we can deduce that once AI reaches human parity we will have to conclude that there is no such thing as intelligence.
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I’m Nobody! Who are you?
Are you – Nobody – too?
Then there’s a pair of us!
Don’t tell! they’d advertise – you know!

How dreary – to be – Somebody!
How public – like a Frog –  
To tell one’s name – the livelong June –  
To an admiring Bog!

-- Emily Dickinson
 
Google doesn't want to talk about numbers.
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Yes, it does on mine.
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#Machine Learning is not Magic: Some useful Intuitions.

One thing I find amusing is when people talk about Machine Learning as if it's some kind of magic pixie dust you sprinkle over your program thus giving it special intelligence powers. When really, Machine Learned models are, as typically used, scripts in a simple language. The previous sentence needs some unraveling: what I mean by magic and what I mean by scripting.

Magic 

People often talk as if you can throw machine learning at any problem and have it magically figure things out. This is very much like the zoom-enhance trope. Actually, it is exactly like zoom-enhance since scaling up is itself a kind of inference. Just as you can't fill in details that aren't there, you can't learn something that is either unapproachably complex (incompressible) or whose dynamics aren't stationary. For example, you can't throw machine learning at market data and think it'll just work. Sure it'll learn something but that something is almost certainly a quirky coincidence of that sample. Even if it tests well out of band, it would only mean the dynamics are as yet unchanged. Another example: you can't throw data at an algorithm and have it figure out how a viral outbreak is going to progress. Similarly, complexity wise, you can't throw a genome at an ML algorithm and have it try to predict physical attributes. In this case, the data just isn't there, or more accurately, each current stage acts as data to feed the next state -- you'd have to literally compute the full organism to get it right. This is the kind of thing Wolfram calls Computational irreducability. 

On the other hand, there are lots of useful problems that are stationary or close enough to (speech, image, translation) and lots that even if they aren't stationary, we should in principle be able to build algorithms that can adapt in time (edge of current feasibility). Then there are complex seeming problems that might not be as impossible as they seem. Take protein folding, what trick has evolution figured out? Protein folding is NP-complete, even a quantum computer shouldn't be able to help there. So what's going on, how can biological systems make such short work of it? Would a suitably advanced algorithm -- something beyond deep learning; able reify its abstractions, perform deductions as well as induction -- be able to figure out the hidden pattern, the hidden shortcut? I think so. But once again it's important to remember that AI isn't magic, these are the same sort of computations that happen when you query a database (search) and save a jpeg or mp3 (compression). 

Scripting

The most important thing to keep in mind is that the amazing 'neural network' or what have you is running on a computer. That is, it is bounded to be no more powerful than a Turing Machine and in particular, is almost always less powerful as a computing substrate than most programming languages. In principle, that Support Vector Machine or Random Forest could have been hand-coded. There is nothing special going on there and in fact, many learning algorithms operate in essentially a propositional calculus, having no quantifiers. The models, being fixed, function exactly as scripts would.

Tarpits

Turing Completeness is an attribute (for machines at least) where if you've attained it, then nothing can 'think' things beyond you. Quoting Wiki: "In any Turing complete language, it is possible to write any computer program, so in a very rigorous sense nearly all programming languages are equally capable. Turing tarpits show that theoretical ability is not the same as usefulness in practice"

One can think of various Machine Learning algorithms in an analogical manner. For example, a Neural Network with one hidden layer is universal as an approximation of continuous functions from one finite space to another. But a shallow network dwells in the depths of the computational learning equivalent of  Turing's Tarpit. The big deal about Deep learning is more layers; which lead to large increases in expressivity, much like the difference between [Brainfuck](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brainfuck) and BASIC. Further on that, recent papers have found that shallow networks can in fact represent, with good fidelity, the same functions as deeper ones. This tells us that, if there's anything to be said about deep learning, it's that it is a way to imbue structure to a problem in such a way as to simplify search. Nascent abstractions which improve search by biasing toward more promising paths.

Okay, so the important takeaways are : 1) paying attention to complexity and especially, how quickly underlying dynamics change is vital -- most modern algorithms, deep learning included, don't do well with rapidly changing problems with (or without) higher order complexity 2) Machine Learning Algorithms are really no more than Turing Machines and often are less. 3) An e.g., Neural Network that is universal as an approximator is still not very effective due to the lack of expressivity and the big deal of deep learning with respect to NNs can be viewed as providing Neural Nets (which represent programs as tables of numbers) better tools with which to program themselves; like going from Machine Language to Assembly Language.

And so with 3) we hit the utility of Machine Learning. They are a particular form of Auto-programming.  Learned models are functions which compute maps from one space to another in such a way that distances and structures are as close to preserved as possible. What separates a good learner from a bad learner is how complex the sort of regularities it can identify are and how liable it is to get stuck at local optima. Generalization is done by having these functions exploit structure in the problem so that future instances are correctly mapped. 

You can imagine a map from pixel intensity values or waveforms to vectors representing words (just numbers!). Maps from sequences to sequences where the elements just happen to capture word senses and contexts: implicit but not deep meaning, though still enough to provide a great deal of utility. Since they do not require a full table be memorized, they can be viewed as computing a particular kind of compression. The compression represents understanding of the patterns in use without caring for a deeper why. This friction actually underlies what people mean when they say AI has no true understanding. It does but its concerns are very narrow. 

The incredible philosophical consequences of learning as exactly a form of programming to follow.

comic 1: http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EnhanceButton source: http://www.phdcomics.com/comics.php?f=1156

comic 2: http://www.robcottingham.ca/cartoon/archive/freeze-zoom-in-now-enhance-and-fart-rainbows-and-turn-lead-into-gold
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Finally got around to a second and third read +Deen Abiola
You must be rather steeped in the machine / deep learning community; seems I only get exposed to a tiny fraction of stuff (decent / credible advances) that percolate through and so haven't really suffered much of the pixie-dust effect that bedevils you.

RE Protein Folding nature has of course had billions of years with which to conduct a search of structures across the protein landscape, conducting a search experiment every 20 minutes in bacteria at least, multiplied by the number of individuals in the species. But that is just finding structures; raw chemistry folds them. And regarding folding I think specific, discrete short cuts are possible but (for what it's worth) probably not the NP shortcut you refer to. Sequences that are known to routinely form standard structural subunits such as beta-sheets or alpha-helicies should allow short-cuts to the final structure. However, sequence only gives you the immediate protein structure, which is fine if that is the functional protein, but requires an additional level of calculation if that is only a subunit itself in which multiple subunits must self-assemble to produce the final functional protein (e.g. many membrane channel proteins are comprised of 5, 7, or 9 identical protein subunits.) 

RE The overall weave. Simply great work weaving together the concepts of machine learning, tarpits, compression, scripts, search, auto-programming, and mapping. Your linking together of these ideas provides a very useful framework to keep in mind when thinking about any of these topics. Also, your comment They require harnessing real numbers and infinite precision measurements, with the latter running against QM intuitions. is something I've also been thinking about recently. 

On to the next post!

I also appreciated +Phillip Adkins' comment about comparisons of practical vs theoretical limitations and thoughts on being able to do more, practically, with ML than explicit programming alone.  

+Daniel Estrada from memory - and I did read and re-read your comments a lot - you never fully articulated the points you hint at here in the integrated consciousness discussions that I've seen you in. I would love to hear, and I'm sure many others would benefit also, from you expanding on these in a clear manner. What are the theoretical implications that we remain ignorant of? This is also the first I've seen you raise the nature of time in the discussion - surely Turing Complete is Turing Complete? Why does time - faster or slower processing - matter? I thought you maintained the position that consciousness is time-invariant, something that I was disputing in those other posts, but your comment here seems to imply that is not the case. Feel free to reply, or not - I'm sure we'll revisit at a later date regardless. 
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Distilling meaning to a number between 0 and 65,536

What is a concept? What does a word mean? A good reader quickly learns that meaning does not come from a word but rather, from the words around it, the words it tends to keep company with. That is the key motivation behind the Distributional hypothesis where:

> The basic idea of distributional semantics can be summed up in the so-called Distributional hypothesis: linguistic items with similar distributions have similar meanings.

There are many ways to leverage this, one of the oldest is something called Latent Semantic indexing where Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is used to find the associations between words in similar contexts; words that tend to fill the same idea shaped hole. The problem is that it's slow - for my needs anything slower than linear is almost always unacceptable.

There's another idea, Random Indexing which also has the added benefit of being online - where each new document or word does not start the learning process again from scratch. The idea is to keep extremely high dimensional but sparse random vectors for each word. These word vectors are then used to update a context vector as the model grazes on various sentences. The detailed how of this is something I will save for another post but the same kind of semantic indexing as SVD is achieved but with a many several order of magnitude reduction in cost. There are many ways I use this, including document similarity, summarization, paragraph segmentation and query expansion but the simplest example is in finding similar words. Say I put in 'thus' then it, without explicit training knows similar words from having analyzed text. Then I get a result like: "(thus, 1), (then, 0.95), (therefore, 0.94), (hence, 0.92)". This is useful when dealing with new jargon and you wish to know where to go next (i.e. interactively searching dozens of pages at a time).

Problem is, I now have this 1000 dimensional vector and I'd like to find words which have similar meanings - usages (or contexts) to this new word I've never seen before. Tricks like kd-trees are not going to help here. Random Hyper planes to the rescue. 

The idea is a form of local sensitivity hashing (another post) where similar things hash down to the same bucket. So I generate a hash function for my vector by generating a random vector, r, where a bitmap is generated such that presence of a bit is decided by if <r, v> >= 0 then 1 else 0. And with say 16 of these, the probability of collision should also double as a sort of similarity function. 16 of these also means I can represent it as a single 16 bit number. So two things happen here. I store the semantic dictionary with a single 16 bit number as the key, words with similar contexts will tend to fall in the same bucket. That single number represents a particular concept in my dictionary. And also, even with a linear search I can do bit twiddling to get the hamming distance of a 16 or 32 bit number much more quickly than calculating the cosine similarity of two extremely high dimensional vectors. 

Then by scanning through and changing just one bit of the bitmap the word's concept vector hashes down to, I also get a pretty good neighborhood of word's similar to my vector. I can then do the more expensive (with magnitude pre-calculated) cosine similarity operation on this much reduced space. My tests show a 95-99% reduction in the space searched and acts as a sort of parameter-less approximate nearest neighbor (not all near neighbors are returned). Reducing the bits in the key so there are more collisions, results in a more thorough but still efficient search. For example, using 8 bit keys results in still surprising sensible divisions - I had to search only 10% of the space. This method allows a very quick use of context to get an idea of what a never before met word might mean - almost like what humans do.

An awesome corollary is that I could then take a document and reduce it to its key topic words, take their average and then hash that down to a single integer. Pretty nifty eh? And now for a twist. 

Imagine two entities that have taken this concept to its logical extreme. To communicate entire documents they spit out single numbers with perfect extraction and hashing. Vectors are shared such that each number is decompressed to its topics, the topics are automatically generated to full ideas and expanded out to trees. Communication is really dense, involving code numbers to shared references and compressed thought trees...While the communicating using streams of numbers thing is not really tenable I do think something like communicating thought trees is possible. More on that later.

##Appended

Examples below use 16 bit keys showing various clusters from: http://nplusonemag.com/issue-13/essays/stupidity-of-computers/ (I have vectors derived from all my papers and notes but it's easier to analyze single pieces of text)

[You can see the full list using an 8 bit key and a hamming distance of 1 at: http://sir-deenicus.github.io/home/rvec1.htm]

31990 -> ["situations"; "perceptions"; "our"; "ontologies"]
30948 -> ["facebook"; "degrees"; "and"]
22775 -> ["pseudocode"; "algorithm"; "aggressive"]

## from a computer go article 

30924 -> ["rematch"; "loses"; "1965"] 
2910 -> ["winner"; "second"; "favorite"; "event"] 
52 -> ["tokyo"; "japanese"]  

Sometimes the words are not synonyms as in 22778 -> ["remained"; "meaningful"; "ambiguities"]
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Excellent point. But assigning meaning is just a more general version of ability to use context: http://ramscar.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/the-errors-in-my-answer-to-darwin/

With this algorithm you can actually count without a reference to glabr and you can search for the word with the closest meaning and have an idea of what the word is*. Without any assignments this algorithm can already use language in a non-trivial manner. We humans need to bootstrap from experience but operating just from a graph built from context has much utility.

The point is that the meaning cannot be learned from the structure of the word itself. Maybe you can sometimes extract parts of speech but that's about it. Meaning is mostly from use and context.

See more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distributional_semantics; There is more to meaning than that of course. But that's a solid basis, better theories will generalize Distributional Semantics instead of invalidate it.

(* In actuality you can start from zero, track contexts and know what words mean on a very basic level, getting to human level understanding is more than just knowing what words have similar shaped holes. Words are assigned to objects but those, like spelling, are mostly arbitrary. The bulk of importance is in where a word is used. Repeating, one can imagine a form of intelligence that has no need for word assignment to perform high level language tasks)
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Just took a few days off after the DARPA Robotics Challenge. In case anyone is interested, here are the sideline reports that I sent back to CSAIL each evening, along with some video summaries.
Day 1:
MIT had a great (though not perfect) run yesterday, and I couldn't be prouder.
Long story short, we made an human operator error when transitioning the robot from the driving mode to the "egress" mode, and forgot to turn the driving controller off. This conspired through a series of events into a tragic faceplant out of the car into the asphalt. Our right arm was broken as were a few of our key sensors (an arm encoder). We called a reset -- taking a 10 min penalty -- got the robot back up and ready to go... But our right arm was hanging completely limp. That was unfortunate because we were planning on doing all of the tasks right-handed.
In an incredible display of poise and cleverness from the team, and an impressive showing from the algorithms, we were able to adapt and perform almost all of the tasks left handed. The only point we had to skip was the drill (we need both hands to turn the drill on). Even the walking on terrain and stairs looked fantastic despite having at 10kg flopping passively at the end of one arm.
After the officials review of the video, we were awarded the egress point and are in 4th place (the best of the non-wheeled robots). The robot is fixed and we know that we are capable of beating the top scores from yesterday in our run today. It's scheduled for 1:30pm pacific. Wish us luck!
- Russ
Day 2:
Day 2 was a roller coaster. Boston Dynamics was able to repair the robot damage from day one in the evening of Day 1 -- they are amazing. But when we got in to test the robot very early on Day 2, the robot powered down after just a minute or two of operation. It turned out that a small problem with the coolant lines overheated the PDB and main pump motor. The next 8 hours was chalked full of high stress robot debugging by boston dynamics and MIT (the heat caused collateral damage to the cpu bios and harddisks). Even at the start line we had a complete wrist failure and last minute actuator hot swap. I can only speak for myself, but i was physically and emotionally exhausted.
We finally started our run 30 min late. It started fantastically well. We actually passed the other top teams that were running on the parallel courses but had started up to 30 min earlier. We drove, egressed, walked through the door, turned the valve, picked up the drill, turned it on. And then... We pushed a little too hard into the wall. The wrist temperature was rising -- if we tripped the temperature fault then the wrist would have shut off completely (not good when you're holding a drill in a wall). We had to back off before the cut. Then we started cutting but the bit slipped out of the wall during the cut. The operators saw it and tried to go back to fix, but the drill has a 5 min automatic shutoff. Once off, it's extremely hard to turn back on. Our very real opportunity to win the entire competition slipped away from us in an instant.
We knew we had to get all of the points (and quickly) to win, so we tried the only thing we could. We told the robot to punch the wall. The drywall didn't fall. After a few tries something happened -- it looked like a lightning bolt hit the robot, some sort of fault caused the robot to fall. Our recovery and bracing planner kicked in automatically and the robot fell gently to the ground. But we had to pull it off the course to stand it up and start again.
With the win now out of reach, we decided to finish strong by doing the rough terrain and stairs (two of our favorites). They were beautiful to watch.
Our team had far more perception and planning autonomy than any of the other teams i was able to observe (most used teleop; ultimately the tasks were too easy). Our tools and our team were definitely capable of winning. There was just too much luck involved, and it wasn't our day.
We're incredibly disappointed, but I couldn't be prouder of our team and the tools. The amount if adversity that they overcame even this week is incredible. They did it with brains and class.
- Russ
https://youtu.be/2eBVsByQs4E… (tells the story)
https://youtu.be/GA-M1pMtANs… (shows the robot and our interface in action)
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Interesting view into the challenges and work that go on behind the scenes of these demanding competitions. Congrats to the teams and their impressive results - thanks for sharing!
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The abstract of DeepMind's recent publication in Nature [2] on learning to play video games claims: "While reinforcement learning agents have achieved some successes in a variety of domains, their applicability has previously been limited to domains in which useful features can be handcrafted, or to domains with fully observed, low-dimensional state spaces.” It also claims to bridge "the divide between high-dimensional sensory inputs and actions.” Similarly, the first sentence of the abstract of the earlier tech report version [1] of the article [2] claims to "present the first deep learning model to successfully learn control policies directly from high-dimensional sensory input using reinforcement learning.”

However, the first such system [3] was created earlier at the Swiss AI Lab IDSIA, former affiliation of three authors of the Nature paper [2].

The system [3] indeed was able to "learn successful policies directly from high-dimensional sensory inputs using end-to-end reinforcement learning” (quote from the abstract [2]), without any unsupervised pre-training. It was successfully applied to various problems such as video game-based race car driving from raw high-dimensional visual input streams.

It uses recent compressed recurrent neural networks [4] to deal with sequential video inputs in partially observable environments, while DeepMind's system [2] uses more limited feedforward networks for fully observable environments and other techniques from over two decades ago, namely, CNNs [5,6], experience replay [7], and temporal difference-based game playing like in the famous self-teaching backgammon player [8], which 20 years ago already achieved the level of human world champions (while the Nature paper [2] reports "more than 75% of the human score on more than half of the games”).

Neuroevolution also successfully learned to play Atari games [9].

The article [2] also claims "the first artificial agent that is capable of learning to excel at a diverse array of challenging tasks”. Since other learning systems also can solve quite diverse tasks, this claim seems debatable at least.

Numerous additional relevant references can be found in Sec. 6 on "Deep Reinforcement Learning” in a recent survey [10]. A recent TED talk [11] suggests that the system [1,2] was a reason why Google bought DeepMind, indicating commercial relevance of this topic.

References

[1] V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Graves, I. Antonoglou, D. Wierstra, M. Riedmiller. Playing Atari with Deep Reinforcement Learning. Tech Report, 19 Dec. 2013, http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.5602

[2] V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. G. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. K. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S.  Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, vol. 518, p 1529, 26 Feb. 2015.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7540/full/nature14236.html

[3] J. Koutnik, G. Cuccu, J. Schmidhuber, F. Gomez. Evolving Large-Scale Neural Networks for Vision-Based Reinforcement Learning. In Proc. Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO), Amsterdam, July 2013. http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/gecco2013torcs.pdf
Overview: http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/compressednetworksearch.html

[4] J. Koutnik, F. Gomez, J. Schmidhuber. Evolving Neural Networks in Compressed Weight Space. In Proc. Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO-2010), Portland, 2010. http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/gecco2010koutnik.pdf

[5] K. Fukushima, K. (1979). Neural network model for a mechanism of pattern recognition unaffected by shift in position - Neocognitron. Trans. IECE, J62-A(10):658–665.

[6] Y. LeCun, B. Boser, J. S. Denker, D. Henderson, R. E. Howard, W. Hubbard, L. D. Jackel. Back-propagation applied to handwritten zip code recognition. Neural Computation, 1(4):541–551, 1989

[7] L. Lin. Reinforcement Learning for Robots Using Neural Networks. PhD thesis, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, 1993.

[8]  G. Tesauro. TD-gammon, a self-teaching backgammon program, achieves master-level play. Neural Computation, 6(2):215–219, 1994.

[9] M. Hausknecht, J. Lehman, R. Miikkulainen, P. Stone. A Neuroevolution Approach to General Atari Game Playing. IEEE Transactions on Computational Intelligence and AI in Games, 16 Dec. 2013.

[10] J. Schmidhuber. Deep Learning in Neural Networks: An Overview. Neural Networks, vol. 61, 85-117, 2015 (888 references, published online in 2014). http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/deep-learning-overview.html

[11] L. Page. Where’s Google going next? Transcript of TED event, 2014
https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_page_where_s_google_going_next/transcript?language=en


#machinelearning
#artificialintelligence
#computervision
#deeplearning
http://people.idsia.ch/~juergen/naturedeepmind.html
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Randall Lee Reetz's profile photoDeen Abiola's profile photoFranchot van Slot's profile photo
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+Randall Lee Reetz Thanks! But this was Juergen Schmidhuber's post. He is a pioneer in the field and you can understand him being miffed by the lack of acknowledgement of prior art.

I found this annoying myself, the misleading statements that, for example, essentially ignored the really impressive early work by Gerald Tesauro on TD-Backgammon.
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Best of all (to me at least) is the future section. I really liked that and I'm glad he stressed the power and importance in interface design. I spend a lot of time thinking about that and it is in many ways much harder than implementing ML algorithms -- it's less well traveled and much harder to tame. Ari Gesher of Palantir, Lickleider and Vinge are the only other ones I know who have truly emphasized the potential there. 

Quoting Vinge, 1993:

> Note that I am not proposing that AI research be ignored or less funded. What goes on with AI will often have applications in IA, and vice versa. I am suggesting that we recognize that in network and interface research there is something as profound (and potential wild) as Artificial Intelligence. With that insight, we may see projects that are not as directly applicable as conventional interface and network design work, but which serve to advance us toward the Singularity along the IA path.

All signs seem to point that this is the path we're barreling down. (note: singularity here, just boils down to awesome problem solving ability  far, far beyond what we have today. There's nothing magical or rapturous about it. I'm betting most people will barely even notice.)
 
Understanding Deep Neural Networks

Over the last few years, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been increasingly used in various applications, from speech recognition (http://goo.gl/vVVCPT) to computer vision and image classification (http://goo.gl/1pNzn4). 

But what exactly are DNNs, and how do they work?

Former Google intern +Christopher Olah has written a blog post that uses dimensionality reduction and interactive visualizations to help understand what exactly is happening “under the hood”, giving one an intuition on the internal operations of DNNs.
In a previous post, we explored techniques for visualizing high-dimensional data. Trying to visualize high dimensional data is, by itself, very interesting, but my real goal is something else. I think these techniques form a set of basic building blocks to try and understand machine learning, ...
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Ben Bogart's profile photoTom Malloy's profile photoJen Yoeng's profile photoDan Chay's profile photo
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Thanks for the clarification +Deen Abiola Clearly I've over weighted the "dimensionality reducing" properties of the SOM and inferred too widely. Indeed a SOM is both a clustering method, and a projection.
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#Learning and Computation

Not only are we constantly modeling the world mathematically, animal brains are also constantly proving things about it. The proofs are consistent even if not necessarily sound nor complete. I've not seen it spelled out anywhere before but it's an incredible consequence of the fact that in essence, machine learning is a method to search for programs. For some people this might all read out as obvious and this is a good thing I think. For me, this is a good case study for my philosophy of not keeping things compartmentalized but instead trying to think in terms of bridges from many things to many other things. 

In a previous post (Machine Learning is not Magic), I tried to lay the ground for this essay by building some intuitions on learning algorithms; emphasizing them as functions or maps and computations, talking about compression and generalization and identifying causality vs being satisfied with correlations (not in so many words, deserving of its own essay). This essay will serve to more closely link learning with search, logic and computation. It's also worthwhile to spend some time thinking about why machine learning is so desirable: namely because most of the useful things we do are not conscious.

##Moravec's Paradox

In fact, one of the most interesting things to come out of attempts to build AI is what's known as Moravec's Paradox. Moravec's Paradox is where all the simple stuff we take for granted: vision, speech, walking etc. were expected to be easy while stuff like chess, math, puzzles were thought of as the harder things to implement. Instead it turned out to be the opposite, not just because concepts like common sense are less available and so harder, but because they take a great deal more computational resources while being of higher algorithmic complexity. It's easy to forget how amazingly impressive what virtually every human baby is capable of in a relatively short amount of time; learning the incredibly complex sequences and patterns behind language as well as states of mind they communicate, learning vision, sounds, walking, building a physics model of the world, modeling other humans -- all with minimal guidance (and without being conscious too... mostly...gets in the way?†)! 

The bulk of our intelligence is not in our rudimentary puzzle solving abilities; trying to build an AI has taught us that actually, most of the things we thought required minimal intelligence are actually some of the most complex things we do in an objective sense. Moravec also suggested that evolution never got round to optimizing (or there was little benefit for) the deeper logical reasoning computers find easy. This makes sense but I also think there's another more important issue. Reasoning with exact numbers and the extremely large error free scratch spaces computers have requires a great deal of energy while evolution's priority was one of minimizing energy usage above all else. While computers are excellent at forward reasoning/search, humans are (for now) better at pattern matching and recognition since the latter does not require maintaining a massive state space.

There's another consequence of the paradox. It's common to think  that in so far that automation is a problem for jobs, more education will fix it. But Moravec's paradox suggests to us that the trade jobs and the jobs requiring the kind of higher order pattern matching that so sets us apart will be safest. It's the management jobs, the rote jobs and entry level jobs across large swathes of industry that will fall. In law, in science, in computing, and yes in manufacture; as long as your job doesn't require constant novel problems difficult to automate, you're a target. This means that it's the graduates, often young, who will be the most affected ones. Fixing the problem will require something more significant than pushing everyone through university.

##Iceberg

Suppose I wanted to write a program that could recognize cats or faces or whatever; to write this program would effectively be impossible because a lot of human intelligence is not surfaced. Much of what we do is not made available to us -- it's unconscious -- hence for example, we don't know how it is we tell one person's voice from another's, even with only a very short and distorted listening time. This means that even if there were a simple program behind it, it would not be possible for us to write it.

So what machine learning really is, is auto-programming. Indeed much of how machine learning is currently used -- batch training -- is exactly like scripting in the sense that you run something external to your code that's fixed at development time and hopefully increases flexibility and appearance of intelligence at runtime. In other words, the end products should be considered as little and limited programs and not something magical. But limited in what sense you might ask? Well, the biggest one is that the programs most models learn, even the infamous feed-forward deep learning ones, are not Turing Complete. This is a good thing mostly, it makes search and reasoning about them much easier.

But how do we find these programs automatically? The first thing is to recognize is that the space of programs is mind bogglingly huge; you need some way to quickly guide you to the specific program you're looking for. And the way this is typically done is, paired with some algorithm that uses errors to decide on direction, you feed in lots of data. Data which help divide/categorize the space of examples while also constraining the space of programs to a particular locale. The model which gets output, together with the ML algorithm, specify a program that is able to hopefully accomplish the task we set it to. Barring exceptions like genetic programming -- and also decision trees/forests, I'd argue -- the model itself is not the program. You can't run the model, they're parameters for the algorithm. The algorithm is a function which when run on input data gives us the desired output most of the time. End result is, thanks to machine learning, programs get written tackling tasks which have insufficient conscious availability to have allowed us to have written them ourselves. 

It's evident then, but not often remarked upon, that the output of a learning algorithm is (or at least parameters for) a program. This means that learning is a particular kind of search, a search whose end point should be a program that is also a compression of the visited samples, aka generalization. Some people make a distinction between search and optimization but I view this as artificial, serving only to bury opportunities to make connections under trivial details. Optimization might typically only happen on differentiable manifolds -- guided by gradients -- but all that is, is a very specific kind of search, more principled but also more limited (relatively, still huge, basically all state of the art is done in that kind of space) and likely not how the brain implements its specifics.  

Models as Programs?

For something like a Neural Network or Support Vector Machine it's not immediately obvious how training is like searching for a program. Consider a Neural Network, you can think for our purposes, of it as tables of numbers which represent the connections between nodes of a network. Learning involves tweaking those numbers so that when an input vector, a column of data, is fed in, gates (functions like: f (x) = log (1 + exp x)) at each node turn on or not in such a way that input/output pairs similar to those seen in training time are generated. It's a function, a functional program. But how is training like search? What are the parameters? 

The output parameters are not the program, instead the parameters tune the model's evaluation algorithm such that it becomes a function specialized to the training data. What I mean by specialization is hard to find a metaphor for and the best I can point to is from computer science itself. The notion of how a general learning algorithm is specialized to a particular function by parameters can be loosely compared to something like the relationship between a regular expression engine and a state machine. The input data specialize and tune the parameters to a program in a similar way that a Levenstein automaton or a depth first automaton might specialize regular expression matching. That's a rough analogy and if it makes no sense then an example based on decision trees might prove clearer. 

Decision trees are more obviously programs. They're programs like `if x = 3 Or y < 2 then if x = 0 then Car else...` etc; they serve to partition the problem space and the search is guided by trying to maximize information gain of each if else split in the data. A bunch of nested if then else statements are more obviously seen as a program and so the search for the best tree is a search, guided by concepts from information theory, for a program which best partitions and explains the observed data. Decision Trees I'd argue, especially because of their interpretability, are closer to how brains represent knowledge (on a conceptual level) than Neural Networks. (Genetic programming is without any ambiguity, a search for programs)

Programs and proofs

Training a model is exactly a search for a program. One of the most profound concepts in Computer Science is the Curry-Howard Isomorphism. The Curry-Howard Isomorphism links the type systems of computer programs to proofs in logic. The link is not a trivial one, it's rich and deep and has lead to powerful theorem provers but here it suffices to draw the correspondence from types to theorems and programs to proofs (evaluation to implication expansion). What's interesting here is that a machine learning algorithm is an algorithm which searches for programs and programs are proofs hence the act of learning is equivalent to searching for a proof in some non-trivial sense. But proofs of what? It's not clear exactly, since nothing like types are specified. But that doesn't matter since types can be inferred and often, the systems in use are simply typed and decidable. The types are not interesting, being usually very general [e.g. List of< string|number > implies Member of Set{a,b,c}], it's the proofs that are of interest. And since the types are so general, the proofs will not necessarily cover the phenomena even if the theorem is satisfied. But embodied in the programs will be partial proofs on the set of observations being visited. 

And as plenty of often cruel experiments have taught us, even things we take for granted†††, like vision and hearing are actually mostly learned. So there's this beautiful observation that in learning to see, every child is learning/searching for a program/building a proof about the behavior of light and objects out in the world. The same is true for hearing, language, walking etc. Not to mention higher order learning. And having learned things, animals end up carrying lots of little programs, evaluating the world and thus carrying out proofs on every observation (e.g. modus ponens) while also, (for the ones that can learn) constantly searching for proofs. 

Rounding it all Up

* Learning algorithms are searching for functions
* For Turing machines, functions are programs and programs are proofs
* Learning algorithms are searching for proofs
* Learned things are programs hence proofs
* Running a program is, roughly, expanding and going through a proof.
* Every learning animal is constantly searching for proofs and proving things about the world
* In order that each program be useful, it should also have less descriptive complexity than a table matching all observations to some output. As such, this program can be viewed as having acted to compress the table of observations††.

Evolution as Learning

There is a way in which this gets really interesting when applied to Evolution -- not just the program aspect but especially the learning angle. I'll assume for now that the Church Turing Thesis is valid -- not that the universe is a computer but that everything is computing itself. So a rock could be replaced with a Turing Machine that computes a rock as a byproduct or output or whatever without any loss. 

Now consider that evolution is a learning algorithm. This is well known and no longer controversial, you can look at it like this: Imagine traits for some population; number of legs, color of fur, height, scale or fur etc. Each organism is placed in an environment. Over time the ones that die will shift the distribution of traits and how this happens is very much like an algorithm computing probability distributions over traits in a way similar to what happens in machine learning (you can link it to Bayesian learning or for sexual evolution, to game playing with weighted majority the manner in which the distribution is balanced/evolved). Mutation is not the main story, it's random and serves mainly to introduce the raw material for evolution. The traits are far less specific of course, corresponding more to genetic units/alleles but the key idea remains. 

So we have evolution as search/learning. But what is being learned? I don't know but what is interesting to look at is the driving goal of evolution at all scales: replication. From simple RNA viruses all the way up to humans, replicating close to the current arrangement of atoms is a (the?) major driver.

Then, with evolution as learning and assuming everything can be swapped out without loss with an equivalent Turing machine (or less), then effectively, each organism is the result of a search for a proof related to what it takes to maintain and replicate states in this universe!

But is assuming a Turing machine too strong? Okay, suppose the Church Turing Thesis is wrong. Next, consider that a Turing machine can efficiently simulate, with arbitrary precision, all classical systems. Allow extensions (e.g. quantum Turing machine) and taking into account that everything a Turing machine can do, the universe can as well but the opposite is not true, then: Turing machines are a subset of the universe. So this argument should still hold with the only weakness being if the essence of evolution and cognition require not just incomputable things, but physically unharnessable, no incomputable things only harnessable by brains and the building blocks of living things. This is a very strong assumption and piles on unnecessary complexity, violating Occam's razor.

The common argument, that we used to analogize via clocks etc., is incredibly flawed by taking into account that Clockwork is not universal in the same way a Universal Turing Machine is. Here is what Gödel had to say:

>"It may also be shown that a function which is computable ['reckonable'] in one of the systems Si, or even in a system of transfinite type, is already computable [reckonable] in S1. Thus the concept 'computable' ['reckonable'] is in a certain definite sense 'absolute', while practically all other familiar metamathematical concepts (e.g. provable, definable, etc.) depend quite essentially on the system to which they are defined"

________________

Consciousness

I'm not sure why people put self-consciousness as some kind of pinnacle. I suppose as a seemingly unique human trait, it's placed on a pedestal and worshipped as something that separates us from all other kinds of intelligences. Yet if you look closer, it's not difficult to see that consciousness is very over-rated. 1) As I pointed out above, some of the most incredible feats of intelligence are performed by barely or not even yet conscious human babies. 2) A lot of wisdom, Zen quotes and quotes on mastery are all about shutting down your conscious mind. A novice dancer or martial artist is conscious of all their movements. They're jerky and awkward, where as graceful and fluid movements are only doable once the knowledge has been transferred to the unconscious. This is not just true for automatic movements but for the highest levels of creativity too. 3) The state of flow, where conscious awareness is dimmed and the boundary between self and task is lessened results in the highest levels of performance. 4) People speak often of sleeping on a problem, not thinking about it consciously and having the solution (the brilliant Poincare wrote extensively of this as his method) come to them seeming spontaneously. It seems that all the effortless, graceful and masterful acts are done by the non-conscious part of the brain.

Consciousness is also limited. A large distributed entity would forgo it due to latency and an entity wanting to maintain parallel levels of awareness and threads of cognition will likely think the serial aspect of consciousness too limiting. An entity does not need to be conscious to allow the goals of others to affect which actions it selects nor to model itself against the background of some environment. Consciousness is a tool only; a bookkeeping, blame assigning, goal maintaining tool that's some how morphed into this pointy headed boss that seeks to claim credit for everything that happens in the brain. In fact, I'm having trouble imagining a selfish, jealous, spiteful and petty non-conscious entity.

††  Unreasonable  Effectiveness of  Mathematics 

Assuming the Church Turing Thesis allows all sorts of beautiful links between evolution, learning, logic, proofs and physics to fall out. With compression as generalization we also get links between entropy,  Kolmogorov complexity and learning. The physics comes from the link from programs to cartesian closed or monoidal categories. As time goes on, I'm starting to find the Effectiveness of  Mathematics not just very reasonable but also, almost...tautological.

†††  You can see the experiments on the poor kittens here: [Development of the Brain depends on the Visual Environment](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v228/n5270/abs/228477a0.html), <https://computervisionblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/01/cats-and-vision-is-vision-acquired-or-innate/>. 

The wikipedia article on the critical period hypothesis is also worth a look: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_period_hypothesis#Deaf_and_feral_children>

But my favorite example is that the Müller-Lyer illusion is sensitive to whether someone grew up in a city or a desert. 

>It has been shown that perception of the Müller-Lyer illusion varies across cultures and age groups.

> Segall, Campbell and Herskovitz[4] compared susceptibility to four different visual illusions in three population samples of Caucasians, twelve of Africans, and one from the Philippines. For the Müller-Lyer illusion, the mean fractional misperception of the length of the line segments varied from 1.4% to 20.3%. The three European-derived samples were the three most susceptible samples, while the San foragers of the Kalahari desert were the least susceptible.

(I like the image below because of it's clockwork like aspect but cannot find any attribution. My least favorite part about the internet)
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Rafael Espericueta's profile photoBorislav Iordanov's profile photoFray Damian's profile photoDave Gordon's profile photo
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+Deen Abiola Very nice summary.  I'm in basic agreement.  I want to clear up one thing.  I don't think that natural selection is in any way random; just the opposite.  What I was saying (still am) is that if mutation is the only source of new form then the evolution of new form will be modeled by models based on the idea of randomness.  (BTW, I have, in my own thinking, banned "random" as a concept--so far utterly without any functional loss.)
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[★★★★★★★★★★]
 
Our social networks are broken. Here's how to fix them.

//   1.

You can't really blame us for building Facebook the way we have. By “we” I mean we billion-plus Facebook users, because of course we are the ones who built Facebook. Zuckerberg Inc. might take all the credit (and profit) from Facebook's success, but all the content and contacts on Facebook-- you know, the part of the service we users actually find valuable-- was produced, curated, and distributed by us: by you, and me, and our vast network of friends. So You can’t blame us for how things turned out.  We really had no idea what we were doing when we built this thing. None of us had ever built a network this big and important before. The digital age is still mostly uncharted territory.

To be fair, we've done a genuinely impressive job given what we had to work with. Facebook is already the digital home to a significant fraction of the global human population. Whatever you think of the service, its size is nothing to scoff at. The population of Facebook users today is about the same as the global human population just 200 years ago. Human communities of this scale are more than just rare: they are historically unprecedented. We have accomplished something truly amazing. Good work, people. We have every right to be proud of ourselves.

But pride shouldn't prevent us from being honest about these things we build--it shouldn’t make us complacent, or turn us blind to the flaws in our creation. Our digital social networks are broken. They don't work the way we had hoped they would; they don't work for us. This problem isn't unique to Facebook, so throwing stones at only the biggest of silicon giants won’t solve it. The problem is with the way we are thinking about the task of social networking itself. To use a very American analogy, our existing social networking tools suffer from the equivalence of a transmission failure: we can get the engine running, but we are struggling to put that power to work.  We see the potential of the internet, but we're at a loss as to how we can direct all this activity into a genuinely positive social change. What little social organization the internet has made possible is fleeting and unreliable, more likely to raise money for potato salad than it is to confront (much less solve) any serious social problem. Arguably, our biggest coordinated online success to date has been the Ice Bucket Challenge; even if we grant the meme has had a positive impact, what change to the social order has come with it? What new infrastructure or social conscience was left in its wake? In terms of social utility, the IBC was like a twitching finger from an otherwise comatose patient: it may give us some hope, but who knows what else. 

Of course, many opportunists have found clever ways to capitalize on the existing network structure, and a few have made a lot of money in the process. The economy is certainly not blind to the latent power of the internet. But as a rule, these digital opportunities are leveraged for purely private gain. The best the public can hope for is that successful digital businesses will turn out cheap services that we can shackle ourselves to like domesticated animals. There have been enough major successes of this model that in the year 2014 we’ve come to accept our fate as unpaid digital domestic labor. There is no longer any hope of using the internet to reorganize the people from post-capitalist consumers into fully empowered digital citizens, because it has become clear that our digital tools have simply been used to standardize the post-capitalist consumer lifestyle on a global scale. 

We need to realize that a half a million human bodies walking down a street with cell phones and hand written signs still have more political power than 10+ million strong Facebook groups or Twitter streams. We still live in an age where an afternoon walk with a few like-minded people can outrun the social influence of a digital collective an order of magnitude larger. You might have expected a digital population to overwhelm our naked ancestors, but if anything the opposite has proven true. When TwitchPlaysPokemon rallied 1.16 million people to beat Pokemon in 16 days, everyone who participated recognized that we accomplished an amazing thing. But we also had to acknowledge, without any cognitive dissonance, that each of us could beat the game ourselves in about a day and a half. 

Okay, okay, so our social networks are broken, and we haven’t even begun to count the ways. There are niche digital communities accomplishing amazing feats of cooperation, but all of us with all our gadgets are not yet as strong as some of us plain old boring people, doing the things we've been doing for centuries like voting and assembling. Why not?

 2. 

Our social networks were originally designed to function like an interactive digital rolodex: a system for managing and engaging a list of social and professional contacts. To someone thinking about life in the digital age around the turn of the century, the idea made a lot of sense: how else would we find our friends in a place as wild and disorganized as the internet without a book of contacts?  Social networks today vary only slightly from this original design.  Some networks emphasize interpersonal relationships and others emphasize content engagement, but the differences in networking tools ultimately have little to do with the liveliness of the communities they serve. Users are willing to put up with a lot of UI nonsense in order to engage with the communities they care about. A passionate community might thrive on a poorly designed network, and a high-end design might fail to attract any community at all. From the user’s point of view, these communities are attractive for two reasons: its members and their interests. Who is on this network, and what are they talking about? 

So if we’re being honest with ourselves then this is the unflinching truth: the growth of social networking happened despite the tools we’ve built, not because of them. We are social creatures; we want to share ourselves with each other. In the age of industry and capital, satisfying this need to share had become almost impossible. When our digital tools offered the promise of overcoming our alienation and reconnecting with each other we jumped at the opportunity. We became refugees fleeing failed states on wifi. As digital immigrants we have suffered through the privacy violations, UI disasters, and the untold hells of political irrelevance that are common to all immigrant stories. And we’ve done it for nothing more than for than the promise to connect with each other, if only to share a picture of our pets.The idea that any one company or service would take credit for the epic digital migration we’ve collectively accomplished over the last decade is ludicrous; we’re the species who figured out how to communicate through tin cans and string. The growth of social networking is what happens when you give the internet to enough huddled masses yearning to breathe free.

But it turns out that we don’t use our social networks like an interactive rolodex. In fact, the relationships we used to have with the people in our rolodex tend to be one-dimensional and alienating in exactly the way we we came to these digital spaces to avoid. Instead of a list-management tool, people’s online behavior appears to require something more like a living room, or (depending on where and how you live) your porch or kitchen table or stoop: a space to visit with each other; where we can showcase our triumphs, complain about our problems, share our hopes, gossip about our friends, and discuss the happenings of the day; where the atmosphere is jovial and hospitable and supportive. In short, we are trying to build a home, in the midst of a community of homes, together with the people we want in our lives. In some homes you can talk about politics or religion, in others you can’t; in some you’ll be subject to hundreds of photos of vacations and babies and pets, and in others you’ll find the accumulated markings and detritus of a real life lived. A relationship planner with multimedia messaging is nice, but what we really want are digital living spaces where we can be together as a community.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that we’d approach the task of community-building in this way: by carving out spaces for ourselves and our friends around focal objects. This is how we humans have always developed our communities: not by managing lists of people through which to channel our communication, but by organizing spaces that can accommodate all of our activity. Communication is but a tool in service of that cooperation. I’m not just talking about a “digital commons”, in the sense of a public space for cooperating beyond the purview of one’s home. We don’t even have our own spaces managed right; we are still shackled to these monolithic centralized services that own and manage our relationships according to their grand designs. In such an atmosphere we have trouble motivating even our friends and family to action, much less something as quixotic and ethereal as “the public”. Expecting these digital communities to engage seriously in politics is like expecting toddlers to engage seriously in politics. 

So let’s be concrete. Now that we’ve all gathered around the digital hearth and can hear each other speak, let’s think again about what is missing from this generation of social networking tools, and what we need to see in the next.  

3.

Today’s social networks are centralized. Our homes are decentralized.

The kind of activity and commotion that’s common in one person’s home might be intolerable in another’s. That’s fine; we’re different people entertaining different communities, and we build our homes to accommodate our specific community needs. Any social network must be as sensitive to these variations as we are. A network under central management is forced to ignore the differences between us and homogenize our interactions to maintain order at large scales. This leveling of variation is a necessary feature of any centrally-managed network, and it can have a number of unfortunate consequences for the communities we can form on them. Some standardization is good, even healthy. But the details matter, and the wrong standards can destroy a community. The larger the network, the more likely any central management will simply be insensitive to community-level needs.

Putting our data in the hands of a central network authority also makes it all the more likely that the information will be released without our consent, either deliberately or accidentally, and this alone can be a deciding factor in whether and to what extent a person will participate in a network. But the problem with centralized network management is even more fundamental than privacy. When we share something with a friend on a centralized network, we’re also implicating the central management in that exchange. It is because central management plays a role in every network exchange that they are in a position to violate our privacy in the first place. This ubiquitous presence can become a dominant influence on our interaction, making our relationship develop according to the needs and interests of the network managers, which may diverge arbitrarily from our own. The effect is a little like trying to manage your home with a state official looking over your shoulder and archiving all your activities, filtering not just for legality but also for targeted advertising. As digital immigrants we’ve come to accept that we’re being overseen, but we should also realize that these are not the conditions under which do our best work. When unknown third parties with unknown interests are not only present in our interactions, but can radically disrupt the structure of those relationships without notice, then we’re not very likely to devote serious time and effort to cultivating digital spaces to meet our cooperative needs. As a result, our networks remain flimsy, makeshift, liable to blow away at any second--these are no conditions in which to build a home that we can do anything meaningful in. 

Building a community of homes means building spaces that can self-organize in response to the needs of our various overlapping communities without oversight and central control. There is no center to our vast network of friends; there is no vantage point from which to micromanage our relationships but our own. The point is not that our networks cannot be managed; the point is that we need to be the management. We need a network where our data remains ours, and where the terms and conditions of our social lives are set exclusively by us. 

With today’s networks, my identity is an option in a pull-down menu. In our homes, we develop who we are through what we do and who we do it with. 

A rolodex is a centralized leveling tool: a person’s critical details are made to fit on a small standardized card in a roll of functionally identical cards. It is left to the user to construct the network from these details: to evaluate the strength of the relationship, the relative importance they might have for our projects, and they way they fit into the larger fabric of our social lives. Today’s social network continues the tradition of encouraging people to fit cookie-cutter identities to maximize advertising revenue. No consideration is paid to how these constraints on identity formation might impact our ability to form and sustain a vibrant community. This helps to explain why people mostly use online social networking to manage relationships they began offline, where they have more direct control over their identity and reputation. Exclusively online-only relationships typically take much longer to develop familiarity and trust, simply because we are witness to substantively less activity from the other. Talking to grandma online is easy enough because who we are and what we mean has already been established elsewhere. The same familiarity isn’t available generally: a random internet person could be anyone and want anything. This cannot be the basis for social cooperation. 

Functional social networks develop through the construction of differentiated reputations. We each have different strengths and weaknesses, and by working together we learn how we each fit into all our overlapping projects. By forcing us into pre-fab identities, we lose the ability to track how we might best cooperate, or how our identities evolve as a result of what we’ve done together. Instead, we’re left to cobble together a pale imitation of reputation from what little data we have access to, in terms of likes, shares, and followers (or their equivalents), as if the quality and utility of our work depended only on the number of people who saw it. There’s nothing wrong with followers and likes per se, but when these are our only resources for organizing we end up with bizarre distortions of a healthy community. In such an environment we tend overvalue the activity of celebrities and become suspicious of everyone else, simply because we have no other common resources for making finer distinctions. None of these tools reveal how our networks might be put towards our various social ends, because ultimately it is not our ends these networks serve. 

Building a community of homes requires building identities with reputations we control through the work we do and the communities we engage with. When we control our identities, and when the feedback we receive reflects the value of the work that we do, then we will we finally feel the responsibility and commitment that only a functional community can generate. We need a social network that can provide the tools for managing our reputations across the many diverse communities we engage with, that understands how these reputations change with context, and how our collective strengths can be stitched together to compose a much greater whole. 

Today, a successful social networking campaign achieves virality. A successful home achieve results.

We have no other tools for judging the success of our activity online except in terms of raw audience size. In this degenerate capacity we can conceive of no other strategic goals but virality: spreading a message quickly and widely. The goal of virality admits up front we are powerless to effect change ourselves. Instead, the best we can hope is that prolific exposure through synchronized spamming will bring the message to the feet of the people with the resources to do something about it. As digital immigrants our own voices do not carry far enough, and we are in no position to do anything about the cries of our neighbors. So instead, we’ve relegated ourselves to being the messenger in our own social networks, delivering notes between the already-powerful and pretending to live in the same communities as them. 

In a functioning community, the strength of the signal tends to correlate with the urgency of the message. The messages that spread the fastest are usually the biggest emergencies requiring the most immediate attention. The messages that spread the widest tend to be the information people need for coordinating their activities across great distances. But most of our cooperation is local and not terribly urgent, and therefore doesn’t depend on raw signal strength. Viral appeals to our collective attention cannot be the only tool in our kit for getting our messages across. 

Although our attention is among the most precious of our limited resources, we nevertheless produce it continuously and nearly without effort. We eagerly give it away to the things we find interesting and worthwhile without expecting anything in return. It is by paying attention that we imbue our world with structure and meaning; this is ultimately what we are all here to do. Our collective attention is distributed across an enormous variety of projects and communities, and that distribution reflects our self-organized division of labor and value: what we consider worthwhile enough to spend our time doing. We use that distribution to decide where we will spend our attention next, and through this collective management of attention we are capable of organizing all of our productive social systems. So when we engage each other on existing social networks, when we each like and share according to our own interests and tastes, we expect that the resulting community will reflect some consensus of our participation-- that the network will be “better”, according to the standards of “better” as indicated by our contributions. 

Existing social networks don’t function that way at all: our engagement is harvested for advertisers, and whatever feedback it generates is lost in the noise of the greater economy. There’s no reason whatsoever to hope that our networks will develop in response to our activity and values, because we know that they are responding to other values and using our activity for other purposes. They’ve hijacked the spaces we’ve selected for our homes and they are exploiting us for all we’re willing to give. Meanwhile, all the attention we pay goes to waste, utterly failing to secure the expected return on investment, having been traded away for dollar of ad space. We still dismiss hashtag campaigns as slacktivism, as if our impotence were a character flaw. The truth is we’re doing the best with the tools we’re given, and ultimately these social networks were never built to work that way in the first place. 

Building a community of homes, one that really works for all of us, requires a whole new approach to the economy of attention, one that understands how the organization of the system emerges from the activity of its many distinct parts. We need new tools for networking, not just to make connections but to hook the right communities up in the right way so that we can all accomplish what none of us could alone. 

The digital homes described above do not yet exist; we have yet to build them. As digital immigrants we’ve been tossed between halfway homes for years, so the significance of this challenge might not have fully registered. Partial solutions exist, but only piecemeal and scattershot across the available networks; no solution has met these problems with the elegance and comprehension necessary to bring social networking into a new era. 

But that’s about to change. People are obviously thinking about the next generation of social networking, and for the last few weeks I’ve been working with a team of developers on a distributed networking service built on the block chain, one that bakes security, reputation, and community management directly into the basic feature set. We’re set to announce within the next few days, when I hope to tell you much more about the details of the project. Until then I hope the comments here give some insight into our philosophical approach to the design. 

#attentioneconomy   #digitalpolitics   #socialnetworking  

// You can engage a public GDocs version of this essay here: http://goo.gl/hBtQHi
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A lot of people think this is amusing, silly even; they couldn't be more wrong. I suspect sarcasm detection is pretty close to AI-complete. Solving it would require many powerful advancements in NLParsing.

Difficult sarcasm is usually global to the text (that is, you can't just look at a specific sentence, you have to be able to use the sentence structure to judge if the divergence between this sentence and the mood of the text at large is legit)...

Or even more difficult - requires common sense and some level of cultural embeddedness (e.g. inside jokes, shared cultural assumptions).

Kind of like how proving a silly arithmetic conjecture could lead to revolutionary advances in mathematics.
 
The Secret Service wants software that detects social media sarcasm. "Our objective is to automate our social media monitoring process. Twitter is what we analyze. This is real time stream analysis. The ability to detect sarcasm and false positives is just one of 16 or 18 things we are looking at. We are looking for the ability to quantity our social media outreach." Some of the other things the agency wants are "the ability to identify social media influencers, analyze data streams in real time, access old Twitter data and use heat maps. And it wants the software to be compatible with Internet Explorer 8."
Think you're up to the job? You're probably not, but the Secret Service is accepting proposals.
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+Bill DeWitt: And when other countries' Three-Letter Agencies will catch on, you'll get the advanced self-referential game of Dear Internet Oracle, How Many Spooks Could Spooks Spook If Spooks Could Spook Spooks?
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For me, building software is like sculpting. I know what is there but I just need to get rid of all the annoying rock that is in the way
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I post now, mostly as a duplicated devlog on a project of mine whose goal is an intelligence amplification tool as inspired by the visions of Engelbert, Vannevar Bush and Licklider. I am, in order of skill, interested in:
  1. Functional Programming 
  2. Machine Learning, 
  3. Artificial Intelligence
  4. Mathematics
  5. Computation Theory
  6. Complexity Theory
  7. bioinformatics
  8. Physics
  9. neurobiology  
I also super interested in sustainable Energy, synthetic biology and the use of technology to improve human living. 

I believe the proper way to understand quantum mechanics is in terms of a Bayesian probability theory and that the many world interpretation is the way it applies to the universe physically. Still trying to find a philosophically synergistic combo.

I also do bballing and bboying/breaking/"breakdance".

I have some "hippie" beliefs like Dolphins are persons. All dolphins, whales great apes, elephants and pigs should not be eaten, murdered or kept in captivity. I would really like to see the results of giving dolphins an appropriate interface to internet access. 

Spent some time solving bioinformatics problems on Rosalind. It's a Project Euler for bioinformatics. Try it out if you enjoy algorithms and what to get some idea of biotech http://rosalind.info/users/deen.abiola/ 

Favourite Books: Chronicles of Amber, Schild's Ladder, Diaspora, Permutation City, Blindsight, Ventus, Peace Wars, Marooned in Realtime, A Fire Upon Deep, Accelerando, Deathgate Cycle, MythAdventures, A Wizard of Earthsea, Tawny Man Trilogy, The Mallorean, The Riftwar Cycle  and Harry Potter 
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Deen Abiola's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
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