Patrick Maupin
Shared publicly -+Eric Zeman says "Of [AT&T's quarterly] 5.6 million smartphone sales, a whopping 3.6 million of them were iPhones."
That accurately captures two numbers from AT&T's report, but as I have maintained for several quarters now in comments on +Eric Raymond's blog, if we assume that all numbers in AT&T's reports are accurate, it must be that iPhone activations != iPhone sales at AT&T. Otherwise the math doesn't work out. I suspect an iPhone sold at an Apple store is not counted in AT&T's sales numbers. Or maybe it's due to the high resale/giving to your kids value of an iPhone 3, and that a new iPhone 4 often gets double-counted in activations -- one for the iPhone 4 and one re-activation for the resold iPhone 3. Or perhaps a warranty replacement counts as an activation but not a sale. Or maybe some of their network resellers sell iPhones directly.
AT&T says that over 40% of 5.6 million smartphones were Android, leaving at most 3.36 million non-Android smartphone sales. So at least 6.7% of iPhone activations were not counted in the sales number. I think it's fairly safe to assume this is even higher than 6.7% -- that some of those non-Android sales were RIM or others (especially since 30% of postpaid customers still opted for the featurephones -- the fanciest smartphones are not yet everybody's cup of tea).
Without knowing exactly why AT&T activates non-sold iPhones, we don't know whether the percentage of activated iPhones actually sold by AT&T should increase or decrease year-on-year. If we simply assume a priori that the percentage of activated phones that were sold by AT&T remained constant year-on-year, then the number of activated/sold iPhones increased by 12.5% (3.6 million activations now vs. 3.2 a year ago).
Given this one assumption, we can then calculate that the number of iPhones sold at AT&T increased from 2.5 M in Q2 2010 to 2.8 M in Q2 2011, while non iPhone smartphone sales increased from 1.5 M to 2.8 M. So, right now, at AT&T, it's 50% iPhone, 40% Android, 10% "other." In other words, AT&T is now selling 8 Android phones for every 10 iPhones they sell. Pretty impressive, given that Android was practically non-existent on AT&T's network a year ago, and given that AT&T is still practically giving away older iPhones.
google+ is wonderful -- now I can let Mr. Zeman know all this without having to enable scripts and having to type in a captcha at informationweek, and he can choose to ignore me or not. Makes everybody's life easy :-)
That accurately captures two numbers from AT&T's report, but as I have maintained for several quarters now in comments on +Eric Raymond's blog, if we assume that all numbers in AT&T's reports are accurate, it must be that iPhone activations != iPhone sales at AT&T. Otherwise the math doesn't work out. I suspect an iPhone sold at an Apple store is not counted in AT&T's sales numbers. Or maybe it's due to the high resale/giving to your kids value of an iPhone 3, and that a new iPhone 4 often gets double-counted in activations -- one for the iPhone 4 and one re-activation for the resold iPhone 3. Or perhaps a warranty replacement counts as an activation but not a sale. Or maybe some of their network resellers sell iPhones directly.
AT&T says that over 40% of 5.6 million smartphones were Android, leaving at most 3.36 million non-Android smartphone sales. So at least 6.7% of iPhone activations were not counted in the sales number. I think it's fairly safe to assume this is even higher than 6.7% -- that some of those non-Android sales were RIM or others (especially since 30% of postpaid customers still opted for the featurephones -- the fanciest smartphones are not yet everybody's cup of tea).
Without knowing exactly why AT&T activates non-sold iPhones, we don't know whether the percentage of activated iPhones actually sold by AT&T should increase or decrease year-on-year. If we simply assume a priori that the percentage of activated phones that were sold by AT&T remained constant year-on-year, then the number of activated/sold iPhones increased by 12.5% (3.6 million activations now vs. 3.2 a year ago).
Given this one assumption, we can then calculate that the number of iPhones sold at AT&T increased from 2.5 M in Q2 2010 to 2.8 M in Q2 2011, while non iPhone smartphone sales increased from 1.5 M to 2.8 M. So, right now, at AT&T, it's 50% iPhone, 40% Android, 10% "other." In other words, AT&T is now selling 8 Android phones for every 10 iPhones they sell. Pretty impressive, given that Android was practically non-existent on AT&T's network a year ago, and given that AT&T is still practically giving away older iPhones.
google+ is wonderful -- now I can let Mr. Zeman know all this without having to enable scripts and having to type in a captcha at informationweek, and he can choose to ignore me or not. Makes everybody's life easy :-)
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