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Andy Metcalf
Attended Oregon State University
Lives in Portland, OR
187 followers|58,120 views
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Andy Metcalf

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A friend sent this to me today...he could be right! The way the new #TopGear with that u-turn guy, #ChrisEvans is presented, it does not even look like a #car show. His #ridiculous face is all-over the once-beloved site with #BBC dicks saying - he is the best choice because he owns so many expensive cars. Well, my cousin owns so many cookbooks but she is still a #crap cook and you wouldn't want her presenting a food network show unless its about hopeless kitchen disasters...what kind of reasoning is that? Either way, the #TopGear we know and love is #dead...but should hopefully be reincarnated with the 3 Amigos that made the kind of show we have embraced over the years...here is to more #revenge, #ambitiousness, #rubbishness and #shenanigans...and above all, #superfun times!

#JeremyClarkson #JamesMay #RichardHammond #backontheroad
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Andy Metcalf

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This video was like Top Gear Jay Leno edition. I love Jay's Garage, I wish he'd bring the funny a bit more. 
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Andy Metcalf

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He's our generation's Enzo Ferrari. 
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Andy Metcalf

Math Questions  - 
 
Suppose there's a game where you flip a fair coin until until it lands on tails; at which point the game's over and you win 2^(Heads flipped) dollars. How much would you pay to play this game?
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Frank Polvino's profile photoAndy Metcalf's profile photoMatt Skerritt's profile photo
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The expected value is indeed infinite, but I don't think it follows from that that one should pay an unboundedly high amount to play the game. 

Sure, over an unbounded number of games, I can expect to make an unbounded amount of money, however that's only if I'm able to play an unbounded number of games. It doesn't take into account how quickly my cash on hand depletes, preventing me from playing further.

For a fixed amount $n I pay to play, my chance of making a profit in a single game is less than 1/n. (If n is a power of 2, then the chance of profit is 1/(2n), if I n is not a power of 2, then the chance of profit is 1/k where k is the smallest power of 2 larger than n). That's just a profit on the one game though. The chance that I make an overall profit, however, is going to be tricky to analyse  I'm going to have to think about that for a bit.

So, I guess it comes down to how many times I am allowed to play. Only once, then $2 (the 50/50 amount, or maybe $4 on a gamble). Multiple times: then it would be an optimisation of how much money I had and how many times I could play vs chance of making an overall profit vs how much I stand to lose.

If I'm allowed unlimited store credit, then maybe I keep playing until I'm on top (or I die, whichever comes first) :) Although, in reality, if somebody was offering unlimited credit on a game like this, I'd expect some sort of scam/trap/trick.
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Andy Metcalf

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Coase is great.
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"the rich now outperform the middle class by as much as the middle class outperform the poor"

~Yikes...
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Kenny Barrese's profile photoAndy Metcalf's profile photoAndres Acosta's profile photoJeremiah Osborne-Gowey's profile photo
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... so much for education being the "great equalizer".
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Andy Metcalf

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Burritos for breakfast FTW! Love Lexus. Love BMW. Breakfast bagels...not so much
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Andy Metcalf

Discussion Board  - 
 
I guess I understand why firms make special bitcoin mining hardware; but I can't figure out why they'd want to sell the hardware. If the firm is actually risk neutral, the price of the box must be greater than the expected value of the box.  Otherwise,  why sell it?

Even if bitcoin miners are risk loving, buying bonds or stock in a company using the hardware with any economy of scale should be a strictly better investment. 
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There are several reasons...
1. When you sell the box, you get the entire amount up front. No waiting for it...
2. Labour cost... Having 1000's of these machines running will require a paid staff.
3. A bitcoin machine that makes money today will make less tomorrow, and so on due to the increase in mining complexity.

Point #3 is probably the crucial one... While the first machines sold will be profitable, when production ramps up, the majority will probably not... Thus it is overall better to have sold the first few at a 'loss' (since you could have made money using them), building up the brand, and then selling the majority at 'profit' to people dragged in by the 'easy money' stories from the first buyers.
Since there is a fairly large amount of gullible people, the last phase might be fairly long :-p
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Andy Metcalf

Math Questions  - 
 
Say there are 2n football teams. Each team plays one game per week. And the schedule of who plays who is chosen at random and repeats are allowed (team 1 and team 4 could play in week 1 and week 2). What are the odds that after two weeks every team is 1-1?
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Merlin Davis's profile photoLew Bloch's profile photoAndy Metcalf's profile photo
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+Lew Bloch My bad, assume all teams have the same probability of winning.
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Have him in circles
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