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Stratfor
4,197 followers -
Geopolitical intelligence firm that provides accurate forecasts and intelligence reports.
Geopolitical intelligence firm that provides accurate forecasts and intelligence reports.

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#Russia's state armaments program (#GPV), covering 2018-2025, will determine not only the country's weaponry capabilities well into the 2030s, but also the strategic direction of its military at large.

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Meeting all of the demands that #Saudi Arabia and three other countries made of it would represent a steep capitulation for #Qatar, and Doha has given no sign that it would be willing to fall in line behind Riyadh.

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In the years since the #Jasmine Revolution brought more than five decades of authoritarian rule in Tunisia to an end in 2011, the country has struggled to keep up the pace of reform.

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This Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information. No classified or operationally sensitive information is included in this weekly update. CSGs and ARGs are the keys to U.S. dominance over the world's oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a Carrier Air Wing, or CVW. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines.

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After months spent slowly improving their relationship, China and Vietnam may be heading toward another faceoff. One June 20, China reportedly cut short a closed-door military discussion with Vietnam about the disputed South China Sea. The talks were intended to last through June 22, with officials hoping to continue mending fences since tensions spiked between the two countries in 2014 over China's deployment of a deep-sea oil rig near the disputed Paracel Islands. Despite attempts by both sides to downplay the canceled meeting, the situation between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea may escalate.

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Advancements in digital encryption will soon put the communications of terrorists and other criminals beyond the reach of law enforcement. And in the wake of the London Bridge attack on June 3, United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to work with democratic governments on cyberspace regulations to prevent the spread of extremism and terrorist planning. The press and privacy advocates criticized her when she suggested that internet encryption was providing "safe spaces" for terrorists to operate.

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A new round of corruption accusations against Brazilian President Michel Temer has put the stability of the country in question once again. By June 30, Brazil’s general prosecutor Rodrigo Janot is expected to formally charge Temer with obstruction of justice, passive corruption and organized crime. Within Brazil, the new accusations could delay the approval of economic reforms and threaten the alliances within Temer’s ruling coalition. But externally, the events will ultimately have little impact on Brazil’s foreign affairs, including its involvement in the free trade negotiations between the Common Market of the South (Mercosur) and the European Union.

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A spate of local referendums may eventually make international mining and oil companies wary of Colombia as an investment destination. Over the past several months, local residents across the country have — often successfully — organized and held referendums to halt oil exploration and the construction of mines. The most notable such referendum occurred on March 26 in Cajamarca, Tolima department. In that referendum, 98 percent of voters cast their ballots against a gold mine planned by South African multinational AngloGold Ashanti, leading the company to halt work.

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Perhaps the most critical component of the Vision 2030 economic reform program that new Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is spearheading is the move to put 5 percent of state-owned oil company Aramco up for initial public offering (IPO). The Aramco IPO, which is expected to bring in anywhere between $25 billion and $100 billion, is the financial engine that will help power the economic reform. The money it generates will go into the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which will then be used to finance Saudi Arabia’s strategic investments domestically and abroad, underpinning its economic reform, diversification and transformation initiative.

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Today's announcement has several important implications. But none is as important as the amount of trust being placed in bin Salman, who has already amassed enough power to be dubbed "Mr. Everything" by some Western governments.
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