I stopped believing anyalysts' estimates for the success of Microsoft products a couple years back. Every year now is the "Year of the Ultrabook", "The Year of Windows Phone", etc... and it never quite happens. I tend to think the analysts are more in denial about MS's current plight in the consumer market than Ballmer (the guy who gets a good chuckle out of going from really small to really small market share) is.
It's as simple as this: there is a very real bottleneck for the current Ultrabook price points. People can't, or don't want to, spend that much on a PC. Yes, okay, Mac users will suck down the Airs like it was actual oxygen and they were suffocating. We know Mac fans are the oddball group that defies market gravity in terms of hardware costs and margins. Windows and Android users are, in general, programmed different, programmed to expect a really good price, indeed a bargain, for their devices. We can joke about Netbooks, and they really were that bad, but people ate them up before they figured that part out.