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Richi Jennings
Works at Editor, analyst, writer
Attended Reading University
Lives in Sherfield-on-Loddon, UK
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Richi Jennings

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#CarrieFisher #RIP 😖
How many more will 2016 take from us?
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Many of us have more days behind us than ahead of us.
Enjoy life and do not hurt anyone.
~rip.
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+YouView TV looks great.

But hypothetically, how would one defer this update, so as not to live on the no-doubt-buggy, bleeding edge?
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Well, we were expecting some #blackfriday deals on phone/broadband this week.

Looks like Sky blinked first. Good grief: £3.25 per month, net
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+Richi Jennings mine doesn't 😟
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If you use DynDNS, you should be aware that Oracle just acquired the company:
https://www.oracle.com/us/assets/dyn-general-presentation-3374184.pdf
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Thanks for the info!
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Richi Jennings

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From: info@example.uk

We use this email outgoing only, so please do not reply
If you receive this by mistake, notify us at info@example.uk
From: info@example.uk … We use this email outgoing only, so please do not reply If you receive this by mistake, notify us at info@example.uk. Embedded image. 6:11 AM - 11 Nov 2016. Reply to @RiCHi. Home · Sign up · Log in · Search · About. More like this; Less like this; Cancel. Not on Twitter?
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D'oh!
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Comments to the original post, please:
richi.uk/g/6KncMhtmUTp
 
Updated x2: Nate Silver (Mr. 538) hasn't exactly covered himself in glory this time around: "In our final forecast of the year. Clinton is...a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Yes, the detail of what he said bangs on about polling errors being as large as the poll margins, and that there's a much larger number of late-undecided voters, but the number in the lede is what everyone pays attention to. I dare say his "model" for distilling a complex, noisy dataset down to a convenient probability will be undergoing a bit of a rethink ;-)

In fact, Nate was saying right up until Monday that the margin of error was at least 3%pt and that the "undecideds" were FOUR TIMES as big as in the previous three general elections (i.e., 12%). This is why I don't understand why a stats geek as smart as Nate would shout "72%" in the lede, despite all his weasel-words way below the fold.

My simple-minded interpretation is that the error must be at least ±6%pt (or more, if you assume that some of those 12 are "shy Trumpers"). So the poll gap was swamped by the error margin! How does any model get 72%?

In other words, his model has a bug and he failed to realize the headline number didn't make sense. No need to assume there's suddenly a problem with the polling.

The unusually large number of "undecideds" should have been a huge red flag that the polling error would be far larger than usual. So the model should have dragged the headline probability much, much closer to 50%. It's as if the lede was written by someone else and Nate didn't review it.

(Although, to be fair, Nate was practically a voice in the wilderness, saying "Trump has a chance to win." You could argue he was more accurate than most of the other poll analysts.)

Update#2: I've checked back with 538's public stance, but I see no mea culpa. I may have missed it, but all I see is a narrative that the polling data were wrong, especially in swing states.

I suspect Nate believes he painted an accurate picture of his prediction, given all his below-the-fold caveats. It seems to me he needs an editor -- to ensure he doesn't bury the lede. I'm available.
Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range…
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Godspeed, John Glenn #RIP
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“People think that stories are shaped by people. In fact, it's the other way around.”
― Terry Pratchett (RIP)
/v @Danealle13
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THE FULL QUOTE:

People think that stories are shaped by people. In fact, it’s the other way around.

Stories exist independently of their players. If you know that, the knowledge is power.

Stories, great flapping ribbons of shaped space-time, have been blowing and uncoiling around the universe since the beginning of time. And they have evolved. The weakest have died and the strongest have survived and they have grown fat on the retelling… stories, twisting and blowing through the darkness.

And their very existence overlays a faint but insistent pattern on the chaos that is history. Stories etch grooves deep enough for people to follow in the same way that water follows certain paths down a mountainside. And every time fresh actors tread the path of the story, the groove runs deeper.

This is called the theory of narrative causality, and it means that a story, once started, takes a shape. It picks up all the vibrations of all the other workings of that story that have ever been.

This is why history keeps repeating all the time.

So a thousand heroes have stolen fire from the gods. A thousand wolves have eaten grandmothers. A thousand princesses have been kissed. A million unknowing actors have moved, unknowing, through the pathways of story.

It is now impossible for the third and youngest son of any king, if he should embark on a quest which has so far claimed his older brothers, not to succeed.

Stories don’t care who takes part in them. All that matters is that the story gets told, that the story repeats. Or, if you prefer to think of it like this: stories are a parasitical life form, warping lives in the service only of the story itself.

― Terry Pratchett, "Witches Abroad" (1991)
incurablebluestocking.wordpress.com - Witches Abroad, by Terry Pratchett
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#Hilarious: I've just been followed by 5 twitterbots with Russian names & egg avatars. All sharing anti-Trump rhetoric & calls for recount.
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Plus they can pretty much never back up what they're saying :-D 
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❤️❤️❤️♻️@vtchakarova:
This is what the new President-elect of #Bulgaria does for a living.
#avgeek ht @Holbornlolz
http://youtu.be/8bWTnqp1AFg
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But the music! 🙈
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FRACTACULAR!

(via @wtbw&@PatchouliW)
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一見フツーにみえて、実はふざけているマジメな彫刻です。 金持ちだったら欲しいなコレ。 http://www.ufunk.net/artistes/gerard-mas/ … pic.twitter.com/NBZfZs23Ex. Show full conversation. 土屋アソビ. 6h6 hours ago. 土屋アソビ @wtbw. 彫刻といえば2年前に紹介したコレも……ミクロ(髪の毛)彫刻。
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Comments to the original post, please: richi.uk/g/6KncMhtmUTp
 
Updated: Nate Silver (Mr. 538) hasn't exactly covered himself in glory this time around: "In our final forecast of the year. Clinton is...a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Yes, the detail of what he said bangs on about polling errors being as large as the poll margins, and that there's a much larger number of late-undecided voters, but the number in the lede is what everyone pays attention to. I dare say his "model" for distilling a complex, noisy dataset down to a convenient probability will be undergoing a bit of a rethink ;-)

In fact, Nate was saying right up until Monday that the margin of error was at least 3%pt and that the "undecideds" were FOUR TIMES as big as in the previous three general elections (i.e., 12%). This is why I don't understand why a stats geek as smart as Nate would shout "72%" in the lede, despite all his weasel-words way below the fold.

My simple-minded interpretation is that the error must be at least ±6%pt (or more, if you assume that some of those 12 are "shy Trumpers"). So the poll gap was swamped by the error margin! How does any model get 72%?

In other words, his model has a bug and he failed to realize the headline number didn't make sense. No need to assume there's suddenly a problem with the polling.

The unusually large number of "undecideds" should have been a huge red flag that the polling error would be far larger than usual. So the model should have dragged the headline probability much, much closer to 50%. It's as if the lede was written by someone else and Nate didn't review it.

(Although, to be fair, Nate was practically a voice in the wilderness, saying "Trump has a chance to win." You could argue he was more accurate than most of the other poll analysts.)

Throughout the election, our forecast models have consistently come to two conclusions. First, that Hillary Clinton was more likely than not to become the next president. And second, that the range…
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Richi's Collections
Collections Richi is following
Work
Occupation
Editor, analyst, writer
Skills
Content marketing, industry analysis, social bickering, foolishness
Employment
  • Editor, analyst, writer
    CRO, 2003 - present
    ta/dba Richi Jennings Associates: Award-winning editor (NetAppVoice, HPIOUK), independent industry analyst/consultant, and freelance writer (Computerworld, HPIO, CWUK, Webroot)
  • HP
    OpenMail (everything), 1987 - 2001
  • Samsung Contact
    CTO, 2001 - 2003
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Sherfield-on-Loddon, UK
Previously
Sandhurst, UK - Guildford, UK - Wokingham, UK - Binfield, UK - Reading, UK - San Francisco - Altenhain, Germany
Contact Information
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Mobile
+44-7789-200701, +1-408-256-0084
Email
Skype
richij
Google Talk
richij
Address
Sherfield-on-Loddon, UK
San Francisco, CA
Story
Tagline
Editor, analyst, writer, fool.
Introduction
ta/dba Richi Jennings Associates

Freelance editor/analyst/writer: 
  • Managing editor for NetAppVoice (Forbes)
  • Managing editor for EIT (CIO.com)
  • Regular writing at: IT Blogwatch (Computerworld) #itbw
Previous editing and writing gigs:
Conflicts and Disclosures

Likes/favorites/reshares/retweets/+1s etc. are not endorsements.
 
Richi's current and recent work includes: 
  • Advisory and technology consultancy for eleven GmbH, Karmasphere, MailShell, Metaswitch Networks, Oracle, Panasonic, Xandros, and others. 
  • Carbon footprint and LCA consultancy for EVEA Conseil, McAfee. 
  • Email deliverability consultancy for C/34 Corp., YouFig, ZipDX. 
  • Site editing for NetApp/Forbes, NetApp/CIO, Federated Media and HP.
  • Content-marketing consultancy for Citrix, Commtouch, Federated Media, FireRocket Concepts, HP, IDG UK, IDGe, NetApp, United Media, Symantec, Webroot, and others. 
  • Speaking and panel moderation engagements for Cisco, IBM, Kerio, NetApp, Novell, Revolution Events, Trend Micro, Xandros. 
  • Writing independent white papers for Cisco, Identum, Symantec, Trend Micro, Websense, and others. 
  • General freelance industry analysis work for Ferris Research's clients. 
  • M&A due diligence consultancy for Ferris Capital Partners' clients. 
  • Retention by various law firms as an expert witness in patent law cases (identities of law firms and their clients protected under NDAs). 
  • Consultancy for various hedge funds and other investment institutions (identities of clients protected under NDAs).
Richi holds stock only in blind VC trusts, which invest in startups -- specifically: 
  • Hargreave Hale AIM VCT1&2,
  • ProVen VCT. 
Disclosure last reviewed for accuracy May 10th, 2015.
Bragging rights
ASBPE- and Neal-winner. Manages the most-read Forbes BV page, which also won B2B Mag's Content Marketing award. Manages the most-read IDG BP page. Frequently the most-read writer at Computerworld. Yet, strangely, still a nice bloke. Also not a Lolita.
Education
  • Reading University
    Cybernetics and Comp. Sci., 1983 - 1987
Basic Information
Gender
Cis Man
Looking for
Friends, Networking
Birthday
June 3, 1964
Relationship
In a relationship
Other names
Rich Jennings, Richie Jennings, Richard Jennings, richij, richi, 117220625678034723010, Richi Jennings Associates, Lolita Richi
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Fantastic pop-in service for our two girls. So nice to be able to relax, knowing that K will be there as promised. Highly recommended!
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Small and friendly. Car park signage is ridiculously confusing
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