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Patrick Marsh
Works at Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) / National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)
Attends University of Oklahoma
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Patrick Marsh

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Want to help me understand what people think about probabilistic forecasts? Then please answer the following: http://www.pmarshwx.com/blog/2013/09/10/poll-understanding-probabilistic-forecasting/
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+terry domerese absolutely; from experience, plenty of us in academia (i.e. not forecasters) are completely hopeless with the concept. Blame poor statistics courses, or a complete lack of them.
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Patrick Marsh

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I have been curious as to the number of people warned for tornado warnings during the Storm Based Warning Era for awhile. Today I needed a mental …
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It's an approximation. It's definitely not exact.

1. I take the start and end points and assume the tornado is a straight line (which it isn't, but it's the best I can do with the data).

2. I "draw" the tornado onto an image where each pixel is 5km by 5km.

3. Next, make the assumption that the tornado is 1km wide.

4. Make the next assumption that the tornado goes down the center of the 5km grid cell, which isn't a stretch considered we assumed a straight line and then "drew" the tornado path.

5. The +/- 2km is the remaining portion of the 5km grid width. (2km left + 1km tornado + 2 km right = 5 km grid cell).

Is it exact? No. That's why I mention it's an approximation.
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Patrick Marsh

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Climatological Estimates and Evolution of Local Daily Severe Weather Probabilities 

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2012/11/climatological-estimates-and-evolution-of-local-daily-severe-weather-probabilities/
I’ve cleaned up and finally uploaded the animations of estimates climatological probabilities of severe weather. The probabilities are estimated from the 30 year period of 1982-2011. Probabil...
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The good-ole Denver Convergence Zone!
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Glad to see people putting this stuff to use!
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Thanks. Inspirational.
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Yet another post in the series on the history of tornado warnings, here are all tornado warnings from 1986 to 2010 plotted yearly.


http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2011/12/tornado-warnings-the-map/
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Look, I can see the SGF CWA. :)
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Patrick Marsh

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Another turning point, a fork stuck in the road Time grabs you by the wrist, directs you where to go So make the best of this test, and don’t …
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And even more videos of climatological probabilities...this time of significant severe!

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2012/11/climatological-estimates-and-evolution-of-local-daily-severe-weather-probabilities-part-2/
I’ve now uploaded the animations of estimates climatological probabilities of F/EF-1 or greater tornadoes, Hail 1″ or greater, and significant severe weather. The probabilities are esti...
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Patrick, this is great. Now if you could just wave a magic wand and project our 2013 for us. Maybe you can strike up some kind of a deal with the good folks at HAARP?  ;-)
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The evolution of climatological hail probabilities throughout the course of the year
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I wonder if that could be caused by the relatively limited instability during autumn events?
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Learn more about SHARPpy! ... and if you are going to the AMS Annual Meeting, be sure to check out my talk on SHARPpy!

http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2012/01/sharppy-preview-ams-presentation/
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People
In his circles
202 people
Have him in circles
1,691 people
Mercy Nyarko's profile photo
Paula Brown's profile photo
Marina Silvia Odriozola Puente's profile photo
MOSOP VIOLA's profile photo
Abas ali's profile photo
Dj Rasfatatul's profile photo
procure sem MCC's profile photo
Ryan Rogers's profile photo
Cindy Luttrell's profile photo
Work
Occupation
Scientist
Employment
  • Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) / National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)
    Liaision to the HWT, 2010 - present
Basic Information
Gender
Male
Story
Tagline
An operationally oriented research meteorologist.
Introduction
I'm a PhD candidate at the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology.  I'm working for the National Severe Storms Laboratory as the liaison to the Hazardous Weather Testbed.
Education
  • University of Oklahoma
    PhD Meteorology, 2007 - present
  • University of Oklahoma
    MS Meteorology, 2005 - 2007
  • University of Arkansas
    BS Mathematics and Physics, 2001 - 2005