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FBNQuest
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Opportunity is your future
Opportunity is your future

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In 2015/16 fx inflows through the CBN and from autonomous sources were generally weak as a result of faltering oil production and soft crude prices. In this period the CBN was struggling to meet fx demand from manufacturers, airlines and business travellers, resulting in the pipeline of arrears, and leading to the opening of new fx windows.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “The pivotal role of FPIs (again)” here https://goo.gl/noceUi
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As we continue our search for evidence of macro slippage in the run-up to Nigerian elections, we devote the 4th of our daily notes to foreign-currency, private-sector deposits in the banking system.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “The elections and the macro (no 4)” here https://goo.gl/upQErc
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The FGN has raised US$2.86bn from its latest Eurobond issue and expects to close the deal on or before 21 November. The Debt Management Office (DMO) has reported that the offer was three times oversubscribed.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Successful tapping of the Eurobond market” here https://goo.gl/GAJg6Y
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Epileptic power supply continues to be a challenge in Nigeria. Industry sources suggest that 55% of Nigerians lack access to electricity. We understand that businesses suffer an average monthly power outage of 239 hours.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Towards a better energy mix” here https://goo.gl/Ai97ej
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The FIRS is the leading tax collection agency and has, therefore, the greatest responsibility for achieving the FGN’s targets for total revenue. Over the past decade, it hit its annual target through to 2014 and has since fallen short of budget for the past three years.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Strong growth in FIRS collections” here https://goo.gl/jHPu6X
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The CBN last week released the personal statements arising from the last meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in late September 2018; this has provided some insights ahead of the next gathering on 19 and 20 November.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Signals of tightening to come” here https://goo.gl/ycHv9Q
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Recent data from the CBN reveal that 596 million transactions were recorded on electronic payment channels in H1 2018, compared with 462 million in the same period of 2017. As expected, ATM transactions dominated with a volume of 429 million.

Based on data from the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), total active bank accounts as at H1 2018 stood at 73 million, pointing to 39% potential exposure (of the population) to electronic payment transactions.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Unimpressive growth in mobile payments” here https://goo.gl/u6khb7
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Nigeria’s gross official reserves declined by US$2.31bn in October 2018 to US$42.00bn. This fourth monthly decline in succession can be explained by changes in the sentiment of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in the wake of the headwinds driven by US monetary policy.

We should address the million dollar, tabloid question: what if all FPIs exited? This is a fanciful idea, given the yields on offer and the oil price. We estimate a fall to a little above US$25bn, the level of reserves in Q2 2016.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Fewer FPIs, fewer reserves” here https://goo.gl/TjFczm
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Today we turn our attention to a discussion on sub-national competitiveness which took place as a side event at this year’s Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja.

We understand that 19 states are unable to meet their recurrent obligations in full just as the FGN has reportedly agreed to a new national minimum wage of N30,000 per month. This leaves little or no room to initiate any developmental projects.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Towards sub-national competitiveness” here https://goo.gl/bvBHar
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An update of selected interest rates through to August 2018 tells us that the narrative is unchanged. Of the 4 rates monitored by the CBN, only the inter-bank moves significantly between months.

Read the full #FBNQuestResearch on “Declining loan books, flat rates” here https://goo.gl/Hyf5rD
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