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Zach Cox
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Retired but still working with computer technology, and keeping track of Mathematics, Physics and thinking about what the mind is and how it came to be.
Retired but still working with computer technology, and keeping track of Mathematics, Physics and thinking about what the mind is and how it came to be.

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I think I am part of an "AI-Training-Program" to make 'spam-phone-calls" work better.

And apparently I have successfully trained some sort of "voice-2-logic" AI.

...

[PHONE] "ring, ring"
[ME] "hi, good morning"

[PHONE] <silence> ... time passes ... <fast-busy-hangup>

[ME] "YES! YES! YES! - The damned AI only responds to "HELLO"

.
. time passes (days, weeks, months ...) Many iterations of the above.
.

[PHONE] "ring, ring"

[ME] "hi, good morning"
[PHONE] <pre recorded message inviting press 1 connect 2 to be removed from list>

[ME] <I press 1 to connect>
[PHONE] <connects me to a real person>

[ME] <after waiting politely for first break in the speal> "May I ask a question before we continue?"
[PHONE] <usually> "yes"

[ME] "Do you have my correct call back number?"
[PHONE] <usually> "yes I have nnn-nnn-nnnn"

[ME] OK! That's RIGHT! Since, sometimes some sort of automated system routes calls to me to your attention then if you don't mind:

Could you bring up a web page on your computer before answering a call from my number and make sure my number it is still in the National-Do-Not-Call-Phone-Number-List? I worry when I get calls that somehow or other the database of the National-Do-Not-Call-Phone-Number-List has become corrupted and my number somehow or other got deleted.

[PHONE]
Sometimes ... "I'll make sure you are removed from our lists!" <hangup>

Sometimes ... <just a hangup>

Sometimes ... <low voice in background> "... damn smart-ass-little-s..t" <hang up>
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When I worked at the special studies branch of the office of hydrology of the national weather service NOAA back in 1970-1971 we used a hydrologic stream flow model that was based on rain gage readings.

The model output was in 'RETURN PERIOD YEARS" for certain rainfall amounts.

The graphic below run for Georgetown SC accounting for Florence gives a peak return period of 1,000 years (if I'm reading the log-plot correctly).

That was NOT one of the return periods we looked for. There was another office that did what was called PMP models, (Probable Maximum Precipitation) where they would model a specific storm scenario. Florence would have fallen into that category.

The event in Houston TX with Harvey was also a 1,000 year storm.

All the models we used are 'open-ended' meaning if you wait long enough you will see bigger numbers.

However, the models DO NOT account for climate change induced by global warming which is, in turn, produced by our current hydro-carbon-economy.

What this means is that these 1,000 year events do NOT represent situations that we can expect to wait another 1,000 years to see again but will now become routine.

"This S%&T is Getting REAL Folks!"
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RADAR Image
Mid Eastern US
Monday 17 September 2018
At 07:08 EDT
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[Q] What do do if you are home waiting out the end of a hurricane and still have internet connectivity?

[A] Find a Riddle and solve it.

RIDDLE
======

See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-solve-the-eccentric-billionaires-puzzle-you-must-first-defeat-the-banker/

Abby and Beatrix are playing a game with two six-sided dice.

Rather than having numbers on the sides like normal dice, however, the sides of these dice are either red or blue.

In the game they are playing, Abby wins if the two dice land with the same color on top. Beatrix wins if the colors are not the same.

One of the dice has five blue sides and one red side.

If Abby and Beatrix have equal chances of winning the game, how many red and blue sides does the other die have?

SOLUTION
========

write a python script that, for each of the six side color choices for the second die, a Monte Carlo Simulation consisting of 10,000 trials is run. (60,000 trials in all)

(r,r,r,r,r,r) zero Blue, six Red
(b,r,r,r,r,r) one Blue, five Red
(b,b,r,r,r,r) two Blue, four Red
(b,b,b,r,r,r) three Blue, three Red
(b,b,b,b,r,r) four Blue, two Red
(b,b,b,b,b,r) five Blue, one Red
(b,b,b,b,b,b) six Blue, zero Red

Then pick the combination of the second die that is closest to a 50/50 split.

SPOILER ALERT
===========

You have to use the Chrome Browser to see the script work:

http://www.codeskulptor.org/#user45_vzg1MsApSN_4.py

WITHOUT running the script what do you guess which color combination for the second die is gives Abby and Betrix equal chances of winning.

AND
===

I did write the script and I do NOT understand the answer I got. (WOW!)

I now need to wait till next week when the official riddle answer comes out to see why the Monte Carlo Simulation gives the correct answer.

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"Good Math Is Worth The Investment Of The Time!"

And we all know by now that 3Blue1Brown is GOOD-MATH

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I am currently reading Bob Woodward's book "FEAR" this book in combination with the article below from the NY-TIMES makes it crystal clear that:

The President of the United States of America: "Donald John Trump" should be immediately removed from office.

This is NOT a matter of politics. This IS a matter of National Security.

This removal should be either by his immediate impeachment by the CURRENT US House of Representatives and conviction by the CURRENT US Senate or by the invocation of the 25th Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America by his cabinet.

P.E.R.I.O.D.

Note: The title of the Woodward book from a quote of Trump:

“Real power is—I don’t even want to use the word—fear.”

Presidential candidate Donald J. Trump in an interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa on March 31, 2016, at the Old Post Office Pavilion, Trump International Hotel, Washington, D.C.

Woodward, Bob. Fear: Trump in the White House . Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition.

Here is Woodward on TheNewsHour PBS:

https://youtu.be/nKORh1IZfCo

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/us/politics/jim-mattis-trump-defense-relationship.html
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I am sharing the Schneier post below because it explains in a very few words the current state and probable future of real-world of cryptography and where it could/may/and-probably-will go.

SHORT (SWEET) VERSION
=====================

You may know who Bruce Schneier is. He is someone who basically knows how to turn the crank on real cryptographic algorithms. And I follow him also.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2018/09/quantum_computi_2.html


LONG VERSION (MORE)
===================

An you all know I follow cryptographic news and physics.

One of my favorite Computer Scientist / Mathematician is Scott Aaronson.

Scott basically knows what is possible given the current state of the art and writes very well for the general public. That is if you like computer science and mathematics.

Here is is blog:
https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/

And something about Professor Aaronson:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Aaronson
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