### Yohan John

Shared publicly -*" By this strange route, physics became revolutionized through the analogy with statistical laws of society."*

Read this article if you're curious about the quote above, or any of the following: "rationality", cognitive fallacies/illusions, the history/philosophy of probability, and the unexpectedly close relationship between psychology and probability.

<<In the first part, drawing on recent work in the history of probability, I will show that the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies was dependent on theories of mind: the meaning of probability changed when theories of mind changed. In the second part, drawing on recent experimental work, I will show that apparently stable cognitive illusions are dependent on the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies: cognitive illusions disappear when single-event probabilities are changed into frequencies. Thus, I argue that the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is not just the province of philosophers and mathematicians, but of direct relevance for psychology, and vice versa.>>

**Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice versa)**:

https://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/volltexte/institut/dok/full/gg/ggwtdsp__/ggwtdsp__.html

#science #psychology #probability #statistics #stats #Bayesian #frequentist #math #mathematics #cogsci

Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung

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