: The future of the EU is interesting, because it cannot make any significant decisions now, and it cannot decide to dissolve. What will happen is what is happening now: less and less does Europe make decisions, and when it does, European states pay less and less attention to them.
They have now decided that investors in Italian #banks
are actually the depositors, and that if you deposit money into a bank, you have a risk. They make these decisions without considering the consequences, so what is happening is what is happening now, whereby those who don’t like the rules ignore them, and there are no consequences.
Buildings in Brussels continue to issue edicts, and everybody else will continue to do what they do. You have to remember that there used to be the European Free Trade Association back in the 1950s and '60s. It still exists! There is still an office of the EFTA in Switzerland. In Europe, institutions are like museums: you can still visit them and they still function. So I don’t see the collapse of the EU, I see its growing irrelevance to any of the issues that are at stake.
And as this rule goes, that if you are a depositor in a bank you are an investor, it is a prime example of how they make decisions without understanding the consequences. A simple person takes money and puts it in the bank to be safe. He has no idea that he is investing money. Given the interest rates that banks give you now, it is more rational to put your money under your mattress than to put it in a European bank.
You put your money in the bank to avoid risk, and now you discover that you have risk. Now here is this Italian banking system, with almost 20% non-performing loans, and any Italian that has any sense at all would pull his money out of the bank because he now discovers he is an investor, and he doesn’t want to be.
It is these sorts of decisions being made by the European bureaucracy that create a situation whereby firstly the ruling is irrelevant to the problem and secondly, the consequences are that everyone either has to flee or ignore it. I don’t see Europe collapsing. I don’t think there is a will to vote it out of existence. I don’t think there is a will to change it. There is a will to ignore it.
A perfect case now is the supposed discovery that Poland and Hungary are fascist states. I have seen fascist states, and there is a long way to go before these are fascist states! Germany, under these circumstances, has chosen this as the issue, with everything else that is happening around it. The Polish decision to change the make-up of the board of their media and to change their judiciary, this is what Merkel and the EU have time for. So what does Poland do? The same thing Hungary did: it ignores it, because it doesn’t matter. The #EU
will exist, and will happily sink into #irrelevance