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Unitedforextraders
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EURUSD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE 1.1400

EUR/USD 1.1401 – 1.1417

EUR/USD continues to consolidate around the 1.1400 level with perhaps option expires behind the sticky price action of late. For now we look content to continue within the 1.0360-1.0440 type range as gamma takes centre stage. Little in way of key data releases today with tomorrow’s US retail sales and PPI perhaps required to provide the catalyst for renewed momentum. For now continue to prefer to play to the topside with an initial target of 1.1470 and then 1.1520 behind with caution on any break back below 1.1330.
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JAPAN FX INTERVENTION RISK UP, MARKET MORE VOLATILE

While FX intervention is still not an option Japanese officials want to resort to so soon after PM Abe’s comments against arbitrary FX action and ahead of a G20 meeting and G7 summit in Japan, MoF could order the BoJ to act, if only to slow the recent USD/JPY drop which is playing havoc with Japanese markets and government and BoJ ef-forts to boost the economy and prices. From a relatively slow grind lower from 113.80 on March 29, USD/JPY falls have accelerated this week with a low of 107.67 overnight. The speed of this drop could provide a pretext for FX action. To wit, official rhetoric has intensified with both FinMin Aso and EconMin Ishihara noting “one-sided” and “rough” FX moves. Aso has been relatively nonchalant during the USD/JPY decline from well above 120 in late ‘15 but he specifically threatened action this morning. Whether MoF orders the BoJ to act will depend on where USD/JPY heads next and at what speed. No red flag yet but a yellow one is blowin’ in the wind.
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