The Onion March 26, 2003 (Volume 43 Issue 12) -- This Iraq War of Bush Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism versus No It Won’thttp://www.theonion.com/multiblogpost/this-war-will-destabilize-the-entire-mideast-regio-11534
Progressive Venting: This is my foreign policy rant about the Bush White House, the Obama White House, 9/11, Afghanistan, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Daesh/IS/ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State, Iraq, and Syria. Let me know if you see any flaws in my logic and my interpretation of the available historical facts and what you think overall of my argument
Look up the status of global Islamic terrorism in 2000 compared to the status of global Islamic terrorism in 2015. No September 11th, 2001 (on the GOP watch) then no Daesh. No Afghanistan war (2001) and no Iraq war (2003), both on the GOP watch, then no Daesh either. September 11th, the Afghanistan war, and the Iraq war were all GOP Republican clusterfucks to begin with. As Colin Powell said, "If you break it you own it." These were all broken enterprises from their very beginnings as many in the military and security fields have discussed over the years from 2001 to today.
Blaming Obama for Daesh when it was Bush who created the situation in the first place (an occupied Iraq) that failed (no amount of troops and firepower and no amount of extended combat years were ever going to leave the Iraqi military capable of being on their own) is like blaming the EMT paramedic who arrived after a traffic accident for people in a bus crash dying when the bus was hit by a drunk driver.
Obama would be the EMT paramedic, the bus crash was September 11th, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and the drunk driver was the Bush White House and all the neocon war hawk cheerleaders in the GOP dominated congress of 2000 to 2008.
9/11 and Afghanistan and Iraq happened on the GOP watch (2000 to 2008) when we had a Republican president and a Republican majority controlled Congress.
Yes, if New York had a dirty nuclear bomb explode in August 2009 that would have gone down as a mark on Obama's presidential record. It would not fall on Bush's presidential record. The Bush White House was briefed in Summer 2001 about the possibility of planes being used as missiles flown into buildings and there was a FBI agent telling her superiors that it was highly suspicious that so many Arab Muslim men who were not American citizens just happened to be taking flying lessons at airports in Florida. Yes, again the Bush White House disregarded these data points.
The rise of Daesh in Iraq and later in Syria was do to the disbandment of the Iraqi military of the Baathist Hussein regime. Then Sunni Iraqis were largely denied entry into the officer ranks of the new Iraqi military and also largely denied entry into middle level and top level positions in the new Iraqi government. Many of these Sunni Iraqi military officers and generals formed the new 2.0 version of Al Qaeda and later what morphed into Daesh in Iraq.
Daesh subsequently moved across the border into Syria when the Syrian people legitimately rose up against the Assad regime. The same way the Afghan Taliban crossed the border and built up into the Pakistan Taliban in the northwest portion of Pakistan.
The argument of neocons that Obama by refusing to continue the Iraq War with high levels of American ground troops (surge after surge after surge) year after year after year enabled Daesh to form and prosper seems illogical to me. The neocon argument that we (the USA) had to continue to keep massive ground troops stationed in various province level bases around Iraq until the Iraqi military and the Iraqi security forces no longer were dependent on us is a false one.
Using this reasoning if the USA has to stay long long term in Iraq (decades and decades) with 50,000 American troops deployed throughout Iraq then so be it. This seems perfectly fine and OK to neocons like John McCain. The Iraqi government and military are never going to be sustainable. Overall the Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish populations don't get along and they battle over centralized control of the government. And the Sunni Shia divide is unbreachable with Shia Iran helping the Iraqi Shias dominate Iraq and the Sunni Gulf States helping Sunni militias (including Daesh and Al Qaeda) try to regain control of Iraq.
This whole conservative argument of Well If Obama Just Would Have Kept All The Troops In Iraq And Continued The Surge Year After Year Then There Would Be No Daesh Today In Iraq And Syria is just fantasy bullshit wishful thinking by conservatives. The bus crash that was the Iraq war set up the inevitable sectarian proxy war between Shia Iraq (and Iran) and Sunni Iraq (and the Gulf States). It was going to happen WHENEVER the USA finally pulled out. The Sunnis and Shias have been battling since about 700 AD. Keeping high levels of US troops in Iraq and continuing to do surges in Iraq for another 5 years, 10 years, 25 years, etc was never going to achieve an ultimate peace resolution and was never going to obtain a delicate stable homeostasis between these Islamic sects.
The problem of the social, cultural, religious, and political battle between Sunni Iraq and Shia Iraq does NOT have a US military solution attached to it. We cannot bomb our way out of this Iraqi dilemma and we cannot surge our way out of this Iraqi dilemma.
Daesh was an inevitable consequence of Bush toppling the dictator Hussein (who violently kept the Sunni Shia sects in line) and Bush subsequently purging Baathist and Sunni elements out of the Iraqi government and the Iraqi military. The Sunni Iraqi population being ostracized, abandoned, and isolated by the Bush White House bred the inevitable despair within the Iraqi Sunni population that led to the birth of Daesh first in Iraq and later in Syria.
The problem today with the social, cultural, religious, and political battle between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds in Iraq and Syria does not have a US military solution attached to it. The USA cannot bomb our way out of the Daesh/Al Qaeda problem in Iraq and Syria and the the USA cannot military surge our way out of the Daesh/Al Qaeda problem in Iraq and Syria.
Does that answer your question about the rise of Al Qaeda and Daesh in Iraq? Warfare and combat do not solve problems of another nature. Smart military people like Colin Powell and the other Joint Chiefs of Staff are well aware of this. Vietnam made the US military aware of this and to a certain extent Afghanistan made the Russian military aware of this.