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Tim Buckley
Attended Pennsylvania State University
Lives in Greensboro, NC
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Tim Buckley

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NC snow lovers be like... 
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Tim Buckley

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I figured out why we've been so cool lately.
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LOL! That is hilarious!
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Great hike up on Hanging Rock yesterday. 
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LATEST: Arthur will make a close approach to the NC Coast and the Southern Outer Banks as a Category 1 Hurricane. The current track puts the worst of the weather offshore, with still hurricane conditions likely within the warning area. (Jacksonville north to the VA border, including all the OBX). 

The storm will be a quick mover. Late Thursday through early Friday is the rough time frame and then things get much much better Friday afternoon. 

If you have weekend beach plans, I wouldn't cancel -- just wait until the storm passes or prepare now to bunker down. 

Always listen to emergency managers where you are! They know the area best. 

As for me, I'll be hunkered down here at Atlantic Beach. I'll see you on WFMY tonight, tomorrow and Friday. 

- Tim
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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR UPDATE (2PM TUESDAY)...

Tropical Storm Arthur is now official and is sitting off the coast of Florida. The storm will strengthen there over the next day and then begin to head north. It will track off the coast of South Carolina early Thursday and track along the North Carolina late Thursday as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. Tropical Storm conditions can be expected at the beaches during that time, but there will not be any rain or wind impacts to the Piedmont from this storm. The storm will quickly exit on July 4th, leaving clearing skies by Friday afternoon for the entire state. A nice weekend will follow with pleasant temperatures. 

WHAT WE KNOW... 
-- Arthur will continue to strengthen and should be at least a strong tropical storm off the NC coast. 
-- The time-frame to watch for Coastal NC is late Thursday through early Friday. 
-- Tropical Storm conditions at the beaches are likely, especially at the Outer Banks. 
-- Central NC and the Piedmont will not see rain or wind impacts from Arthur. 
-- Quick clearing is expected Saturday and Sunday as the storm exits. 

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW... 
-- The exact track of the storm. Just how close the storm gets to the NC coast, and whether it makes an official landfall, will determine just how strong the winds will get and how much rain will be seen there. 
-- Exactly how strong the storm will ultimately get. Strong tropical storm to weak hurricane appears likely, but there is potential for it to be weaker or stronger than that. Tropical intensity forecast are notoriously difficult.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO... 
-- If you're at the coast, get ready for Tropical Storm conditions Thu-Fri. Bring in lawn furniture from outside, and be prepared to lose power in case that happens. 
-- If you have travel plans to the beaches late week, keep watching the forecast. Things will be fine by Friday evening, but before then it may be a good idea to wait it out or call ahead to your hotel / rental. 

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T DO... 
-- Panic and / or overreact. This is important. We see tropical storms and hurricanes like this in North Carolina frequently. Read the forecast for what it is and plan accordingly. 

PIEDMONT / TRIAD FORECAST-- A few scattered t-storms Thursday with the cold front moving through. No rain from Arthur. Clearing skies Friday with good weather for fireworks. Sat/Sun are beautiful with lower humidity. 

WILMINGTON -- Tropical Storm conditions possible Thursday into Friday. Downed trees, scattered power outages possible. Rapid clearing midday Friday leading toward a nice weekend.

OUTER BANKS -- Best chance to see tropical storm conditions. If storm is stronger, hurricane conditions could be possible in places like Hatteras Thu-Fri. Clearing will take hold late Friday into the weekend.

SHARE this status with family and friends so that they have their head on straight with this storm.

- Tim
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How can anyone take a storm named Arthur seriously?
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE (MON. EVENING)...
There is a well-defined circulation off the Florida coast that is just on the edge of becoming a classified tropical system. Thunderstorms are only found on the south and east side, with dry air keeping storms away from the north side. This asymmetrical appearance is not a healthy sign of a tropical system. This should change in the coming days as the storm has a chance to strengthen off the coast of Florida. After that, it will track northward with a close brush of the North Carolina coast, with high winds and heavy rain likely at the beaches.

WHAT WE KNOW... 
-- This system will strengthen into a Tropical Storm shortly. 
-- This system will take a track up the East Coast, close to North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. 
-- This system COULD produce tropical storm conditions at the beaches depending on how strong it gets.
-- Any rain, wind impacts from soon to be Arthur will not make it to central NC. 
-- Quick clearing is expected Saturday and Sunday as the storm exits.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW... 
-- How strong the storm could ultimately get. It will likely max out as a Tropical Storm, but it could reach a low-end Hurricane if the conditions are right.
-- Whether or not the storm will make a direct hit on the coast. This is not likely, but can't be ruled out from Wilmington to the Outer Banks.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO... 
-- If you live near the coast, or have travel plans to the coast for this holiday weekend, keep checking up on the forecast! You'll need to stay weather aware in the coming days.

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T DO... 
-- Cancel any beach vacation plans. (Don't do this. There is still plenty of time to react to the developing system.)
-- Panic and / or overreact. This could be a tropical storm on the North Carolina coast, but we're not forecasting a big hurricane or anything that will be memorable years from now. Relax, and see it for what it is. Don't manufacture hype of your own.

PIEDMONT / TRIAD -- There is the chance for a few thunderstorms later this week Thursday/Friday with the cold front rolling through, but we won't see rain from Arthur. Saturday and Sunday will be beautiful.

WILMINGTON -- Be on watch for possible Tropical Storm conditions Thursday into Friday. I remain optimistic that this storm will move through by Friday evening, so it may be ok for fireworks. Saturday and Sunday look dry and sunny.

I'll keep you updated on anything going on with this storm in the coming days.

- Tim 

#weather   #Tropics   #Arthur   #ncwx   #scwx  
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Tim Buckley

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Stunning photo of the North Carolina mountains with fall foliage and sun streaked skies. 

Thanks to Justin Askew for sharing.
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If all goes well, photo buddies and I are heading to the mountains next week. 
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High-res visible image shows meso-vortices within Hurricane Iselle. 

Headed toward Hawaii. 

Courtesy: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/140804_goes15_visible_Iselle_mesovortices_anim.gif
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Today's computer models shifted a bit west. That certainly means that hurricane conditions are a good possibility anywhere from the Crystal Coast northward to the Outer Banks. 

The storm will be brief, but it will pack a punch. 

I'm located right within the strike zone in Atlantic Beach. I'll try and post as many updates as I can throughout the storm.
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Astronaut Reid Wiseman took this photo of Tropical Storm Arthur from space.

He says it "looks mean."
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Animated satellite image of Tropical Storm Arthur at noon. 
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Still no official Tropical Depression off the Florida coast this morning. However, there looks to be a clear circulation as seen on satellite. Very few t-storms associated with it, which indicates that the storm isn't in the best environment for development right now. 

That should change in the coming days, and I do expect that this will eventually become Tropical Storm Arthur. 

The Hurricane Hunters are planning to investigate this afternoon.
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In his circles
349 people
Have him in circles
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Certified Broadcast Meteorologist
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Currently
Greensboro, NC
Previously
Wilmington, NC - Pulaski, NY - State College, PA
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910-202-5793
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615 N Front St
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Meteorologist (CBM) at WFMY covering Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point
Education
  • Pennsylvania State University
    Meteorology, 2005 - 2009
  • Pennsylvania State University
    2005 - 2009
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Tim Buckley
Tim Buckley's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
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