TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE (MON. EVENING)...
There is a well-defined circulation off the Florida coast that is just on the edge of becoming a classified tropical system. Thunderstorms are only found on the south and east side, with dry air keeping storms away from the north side. This asymmetrical appearance is not a healthy sign of a tropical system. This should change in the coming days as the storm has a chance to strengthen off the coast of Florida. After that, it will track northward with a close brush of the North Carolina coast, with high winds and heavy rain likely at the beaches.
WHAT WE KNOW...
-- This system will strengthen into a Tropical Storm shortly.
-- This system will take a track up the East Coast, close to North Carolina on Thursday and Friday.
-- This system COULD produce tropical storm conditions at the beaches depending on how strong it gets.
-- Any rain, wind impacts from soon to be Arthur will not make it to central NC.
-- Quick clearing is expected Saturday and Sunday as the storm exits.
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW...
-- How strong the storm could ultimately get. It will likely max out as a Tropical Storm, but it could reach a low-end Hurricane if the conditions are right.
-- Whether or not the storm will make a direct hit on the coast. This is not likely, but can't be ruled out from Wilmington to the Outer Banks.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO...
-- If you live near the coast, or have travel plans to the coast for this holiday weekend, keep checking up on the forecast! You'll need to stay weather aware in the coming days.
WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T DO...
-- Cancel any beach vacation plans. (Don't do this. There is still plenty of time to react to the developing system.)
-- Panic and / or overreact. This could be a tropical storm on the North Carolina coast, but we're not forecasting a big hurricane or anything that will be memorable years from now. Relax, and see it for what it is. Don't manufacture hype of your own.
PIEDMONT / TRIAD -- There is the chance for a few thunderstorms later this week Thursday/Friday with the cold front rolling through, but we won't see rain from Arthur. Saturday and Sunday will be beautiful.
WILMINGTON -- Be on watch for possible Tropical Storm conditions Thursday into Friday. I remain optimistic that this storm will move through by Friday evening, so it may be ok for fireworks. Saturday and Sunday look dry and sunny.
I'll keep you updated on anything going on with this storm in the coming days.
- Tim #weather #Tropics #Arthur #ncwx #scwx