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Am sure someone can dethrone the analyst. :-/
The question is whether apple can continue to operate with the drive and clarity of focus Steve Jobs brought?  Or will it become a company run by sales/marketing?
Apple maps and releasing an ipad twice as fast 6 months later perhaps is a sign of what's to come?
The only thing that could retain me from buying a non ipad tablet is the apps optimisation that iOS has for tablets, but is just matter of time for android and windows 8 developers start to work on that -
I'd say competitors have definitely closed the gap.  Apple obviously feels the same way seeing as how they released two iPads in the same calendar year.  
LOL... MS surface not even x86.  Android yes but I will forget about MS surface.  I love the apps on my iphone and iPad.
Microsoft has a chicken and egg problem. They need developers to build apps so that people adopt windows 8 tablets. They also need people adopt windows 8 tablets to attract developers to build apps for Windows 8. If they solve this they can definitely dethrone the iOS tablet. 
This sounds like something that I read a couple of years ago. It told us that the Iphone would outsell all other smartphones for well over another decade. I understand that it now has a 16% share of the market. The USA is a bit higher but even there it's falling.

How long will it be before we can look back at this sort of article and laugh? 
Sean M
+omar holder, Android is leading; not will. The better question is how long they can maintain their dominance with their current ecosystem. It will be interesting to see how WP8 and BB10 play out.

Before I go predicting how long the iPad will dominate, it seems prudent to see how well the Nexus 10 sells. Apple is already losing a larger portion of new smartphone owners to other OSes than it would like, so that might follow for tablets as other companies up their game.
Android tablets have already overtaken the ipad. In China alone, 50 million Android tablets are sold during 2012. These strategy BSlitics have no idea what they are talking about. But some weird people obviously go ahead and buy their "reports", those guys have absolutely zero idea what they are talking about.
Well all I have to say is you can only go so long trying to reinvent the same thing before people call you on it 
No big surprise there... as long as you got thousands upon thousands of sheeps lining up for an Apple product, you'll always get that many people using their app ecosystem.  I just don't buy into it because I want a product that doesn't intentionally burn a hole in the wallet.  I'm sure I am not alone in thinking that I would rather not pay US$180 just to get a 32GB iPad mini when a 32GB Nexus 7 can be had for US$250.

Eventually the iPad in general will be dethroned.  It's just a matter of time.  I'll only consider an Apple product if they can price it competitively against the next big competitor.
Isn't Apple already down to 50% market share and falling?  Perhaps someone forgot to read that story...
And that is what many fail to grasp... Apple is the tablet choice for me because of the range of apps.  I have apps I can't get on any other platform.  People are already jumping on the MS wagon and saying it's going to beat apple. 
Come back in 12 months time and then we'll see if microsoft has something to shout about.  Google isn't even worthy of consideration for me.  I'd rather pay twice the price and have access to a very large range of apps.
^ it's all about apps, if people jump ship to windows rt, more developers will develop app there which is a good thing because that's the final piece to make windows rt complete. 
+Raphael Baker Are you seriously unaware that Google Play has as many, if not more, apps than the App Store? Both have about 700,000.
+Nickan Fayyazi - they're a bit confused because Play doesn't force you to buy the Tablet version of an app separately so it's hard to tell which apps are "tablet optimized" and which ones merely run just fine on a tablet.
Bryan H
When I used the iPad and other Tablets side-by-side, it was obviously apparent that Apple did their Human User Interface Design homework, and others DID NOT.
So this is all that appleheads can grasp at now ?
Nexus 7 is by far better we just have to break the grip on peoples minds
Windows is the most popular operating system in the world. Soon most people will have Windows 8. Developers will make Windows 8 apps because that will be the largest user base. From there, Surface, Windows Phone, and Xbox apps will explode because they'll be easy to port right over. How do people not see this?
I'd like to know what these wonderful apps are that I'm not getting on my Excite 7.7. Mom has an iPad 2 and seems she's usually envious of what I'm doing with my tablet than the other way around.
Dominate? Android has 48% of the tablet market already! 
+Nickan Fayyazi Right, but any Windows 8 PC "Metro App" will run on Surface tablets, and will be easy to port to Windows Phone. See?
+Chris Haines Strange my mom who uses a Galaxy S2 smartphone complained to me about the new iPad I gave her, telling me how inconvenient it is to access te Wi-Fi toggle and asked me how to change the default browser to Chrome. I guess it might not be adequate for moms even.
Ryan R.
Apple fans seems very loyal :D
+Chris Haines Not in dispute; Mom also has a iPhone 4S and she can't even use Siri. I'm just wondering what all these wonderful iPad apps I'm missing out on are. Seems to me the "killer app" that's supposed to make me want an iPad is the Apple logo.
I love reading tech product projections.  For some reason they rarely end up being accurate and are often wildly inaccurate.

I for one that over the next five years the tablet market is going to expand tremendously, but the growth trend is going to follow the same trend as smartphones.  adoption rates for Android will lag behind those for Apple until the developing world begins to adopt Android in masse, then you'll see Android dominating the tablet market in most of the world, while having something closer to parity with IOS in mature markets like the US.
Apple somehow manages to convey a premium message to the market that nobody else can, despite most other products being much better. Ask someone who knows little about phones what the best phone is, they will tell you it's an iPhone. Apple is heavily invested in brainwashing technology.
I think this analyst needs to retake calculus so he can better understand rates of change.
I have a lot of guitar, software synth apps for ipad.  Music making.
iPads are more than adequate for musicians.  I actually play more games on iPad than I do on my high end extreme PC these days but the music apps are what make the iPad special.  I guess if you're not into music creation then any old tablet will do.
Although I love the iPad... I'd be very surprised if Apple continued to dominate now Mr Jobs has left the building.
The surface is way out if iPads league, the iPads biggest threat should be the nexus 10. Since it doesn't have many good apps and the GPU isnt able to cope up with the resolution I say I agree with the analyst 
If we include the mini then nexus7 will also be added in the threat list but the lack of LTE rear camera, sexy look, and being a lot more sensitive then the mini the nexus7 would be a great threat but not enough to end the iPads reign 
Ryan R.
I will agree with the Analyst if he replace the word "dominate" with "decline" LOL.:D:D:D
The next 5 year's crapple will be on the decline, no future there. 
+Franke Hernandez is apparently the guy to listen to because he knows better than everyone else what will happen in 5 years.  He said said it so everyone take note.  Also I'm guessing he doesn't like Apple since he very cleverly added a "cr" to the company name.  I guess if I was equally intelligent and witty I could add an "nstein" after the "ke" of his forename?  
+Shreyash Nigam
Nexus 10: The GPU is able to cope with the resolution, and it actually has as many apps as the iPad. "Good" is subjective.
Nexus 7: Half the price, with a better CPU, GPU, resolution, and OS. Why do you need a rear camera; do you not have a phone? And the look is subjective.
+Nickan Fayyazi we are comparing tablets launched somewhere around 2010 which have already sold millions and also hold world records vs tablets which have just launched and aren't even available everywhere 
Apple no longer owns the mobile market, I am sure this will change. They can't compete with upcoming cheaper tablets.
You know when comparing market share the sales of the first gen iPad will also be included because many people never upgraded to the ipad2,3,4 
The market share refers to the current market. Very few people are buying iPad 2s, and the iPad 1 and 3 are no longer available officially (at the Apple Store).
But people are still using them so they will be a part of the total market share 
A quick google shows that the iPad market share has indeed fallen.from 60% to 50. 
They are likely to have a smaller piece of a bigger market on that.  At some point, people are going to "wake up and smell the coffee".  When that happens, we can expect even more court cases as this seems to be their alternative to the traditional capitalist methods of improving the product and/or dropping the price.

The major sales tool they currently use is to put a picture of some partially eaten fruit on the product.  They seem to have tried to use the old MS method of spreading FUD.That one does not seem to be very effective.
New times, new names but same results : in the Antiquity they had oracles, we have analysts...
Android is dominating the smartphones market in less than 5yrs but ipad will reign for 10yrs while there are a lot more concurence (amazon, google, samsung, MS) around??
+Raphael Baker He's always trolling against Apple, just let him be. He doesn't have a meaningful life, I guess, because he says the same thing on almost every tech related page on G+.
LOL.  It's funny how we males even have to turn choice of tablet into a war.  As if we think we can persuade people to ditch a particular brand name because we insult it?  I may not want a google nexus but I wouldn't say it's crap.  Just not right for me.
+Raphael Baker We're not talking of socks here. Apple & Google, MS, have a set of values linked to them. And the sociology of apple vs google users is different : can be seen as a class conflict too ;)
So i can understand the "war" aspect.
Traditionally with PC hardware I was never one to show loyalty to a brand.  I always chose pc parts according to performance.  I wouldn't have a problem taking a look at the android tablet market because I have little experience of android but I know it's popular.  Apps are what make portable computing for me and currently the iPad has the apps I need.  I know that android also has a very good range of music-making apps but  I don't know if they're generally as good as the ones I have on iPad.

One of my friends ditched his old iPhone 3g last year and now has a Galaxy S2... he no longer gets excited about the apps as he did when he had his iphone and when I quizzed him about it he said in his view the android ones weren't as good.  I'm guessing that's not always the case but that is his experience of android versus apple mobile.
We shall see at the end of five years.

I could also say the opposite of both of you two. Right! 
I just got the Nexus 10. This is my first comment on the tablet Google + app. This is awesome!
Apple will not be able to compete with the high quality and low prices of the new nexus line when it comes to everyday consumers, and eventually the app gapp will close. The tablet market is going in the same direction the pc market went. Most people will stick to buying products that work for them at prices that work for them, and apple will dominate the ultra high end market because of their superior hardware and walled garden.
Actually one of the reasons I like the iPad 3 is price.  Yes I know the google nexus is cheaper but I prefer the iPad spec.  If an android tablet comes along with similar spec I might consider it when I establish android has a good range of music creation apps.  I have no experience of android apart from my samsung galaxy friend telling me his old iphone apps were better.
I was told by someone, whose opinion has proved tight in the past, that my nexus 7 was mostly better spec than the iPad.  The 8GB was not as good but as all my musig lives "in the cloud"that doesn't really matter.
This was before the iPad Mini came out.  I don't recall hearing that it was significantly better than its sibling.

Apps are a matter of a market positive-feedback loop.  As more people use Android and the Apple market share drops, more writers will do their apps on the non-Apple platform.  This in turn will increase the move.  If the app you want is only available on Apples shrinking market share  let the writers know that they aer costing you time. money etc.
+Scott Watson App Store just released the 1 millionth app. Android users are generally cheapos, want everything for free. Not everyone, but the majority. Why would app developers, who want to earn money, waste their resource on Android? Especially small startups will definitely bet on Apple. This will only increase through time. 
+Nino Novak Very good point Mr Novak.  A friend of mine who has galaxy S2 refuses to pay for any apps.  I have no problem paying for quality apps on Apple.  If a top selling android game costs even less than $1 he won't buy it.  I paid £23 for Korg iMS-20 synth on iPad because it's a seriously good music tool.  I'm sure android has some great apps but not sure the quality is there to the same degree I see at Apple.  
+Raphael Baker I admit, I started as a cheapo. But seriously, my first android experience was with a Motorola Clix XT, gag!  I wouldn't have paid for an app to go on that phone. However, ever since I waited, budgeted my monies, and got some Unfragmented Non-Carrier hardware - software combo (Galaxy Nexus and Nexus 10), I'm more than willing to shell out a little more for the quality content on a quality hardware platform. N.O.V.A 3 works on both my phone and tablet. I'ts also runs insanely smooth on the Nexus 10, like a full price $20 PC game. Google Earth is ridiculously smooth and stable too. Google Maps looks gorgeous. I'm really confident that Nexus 10 is going to be the beach-head marking the beginning of the end of Apple's dominant Tablet Market share. (It's also passed the wife test, my wife played Angry Birds Starwars all afternoon and this morning when I got home yesterday). 
+Matthew Dowell Ultimately I will go with whatever platform gives me what I need.  I certainly wouldn't rule out a change to android if it has the music apps.  I tried Nova 2 on iPad but I prefer mouse and keys for my FPS so I'd stick to PC for that.  Arc Squadron is a lot of fun though.  Perhaps that's on android too?
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