OK, everybody who's so confident of their analysis, tell me: what's Apple stock going to be trading at 15 years from now? Because Michael Dell made his statement in 1997. Should we be investing long in Apple? How about HP? Intel? Google? Facebook? Samsung?
Dell's decline has been going on for years, to be sure, but they were doing just fine in 1997, and Apple was indeed flailing. I remember Scott McNealy from Sun aptly criticizing Dell for having shallow R&D ("Dell adds to a computer the way a supermarket adds a bruise to a banana," or words to that effect), and I think you can argue that the analysis is correct: Dell relies heavily on Microsoft and Intel to carry its water. But in the end, Dell outlasted Sun, so heavy R&D isn't everything. Forecasting the fates of computer companies over long periods of time is a perilous business.