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Singularity 2045
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Singularity 2045

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#NickBostrom is the King of logical fallacies regarding the supposed #artificialintelligence #existentialrisk we are allegedly approaching.

#Bostrom compares human treatment of gorillas to how AI could treat humans. This is a chalk and cheese comparison, apples and oranges.

The Globe and Mail (1 May 2015) asked Nick Bostrom: "Why do you think the development of super-intelligent machines could be an existential threat to humanity?"

Nick Bostrom replied: "If you take a step back and think about the human condition, we can see that intelligence has played a shaping role. It’s because of our slightly greater general intelligence that we humans now occupy our dominant position on planet Earth. And even though, say, our ape ancestors were physically stronger than us, the fate of the gorillas now rests in our hands because with our technology, developed through our intelligence, we have unprecedented powers. For basically the same reason, if we develop machines that radically exceed human intelligence, they too could be extremely powerful and able to shape the future according to their preferences. So the transition to the machine-intelligence era looks like a momentous event and one I think associated with significant existential risk."

The comparison would only be valid if gorillas had intelligently engineered the human race, whereupon their higher engineered intelligence dominated them (the creator).

If gorillas had created greater than gorilla intelligence, if gorillas had engineered human minds (our genome), whereupon the created AIs (humans) dominated or harmed gorillas, the comparison would be valid. The problem is humans are not the AIs of gorillas.

The situation of humans intelligently engineering intelligence greater than our own is utterly unlike any species below us. Inter-species hierarchical comparisons regarding natural evolution, showing no intelligent AI design of a higher species by the lower species, does not translate to the engineering of artificial intelligence (artificial evolution).

Artificial intelligence is a new stage of evolution, which we cannot compare to natural evolution where no intelligent engineering of AI occurred.

Points regarding gorilla-human-AI difference to consider are:

1. Humans and AI have a close creator-created relationship, which humans and gorillas do not have.

2. Humans understand the engineering of AI minds whereas gorillas have ZERO idea how our minds were created.

3. The technological civilization needed to create AI is wholly different, or will be wholly different, to the world where humans dominate gorillas. The point here is technology for humans able to create AI will not remain at 2015 levels. Very advanced tech at the point of superhuman intelligence will ensure the primitiveness of inter-species dominance is obviated. 3D-printing of meat will replace farming. Asteroid mining and space colonization, along with greater efficiency, will ensure there is no need to battle over limited resources.

4. If gorillas had created us they would be able to communicate intelligently with us. I am certain we would have endless respect for their AI-engineering feat, which means we would without question grant our creators equal rights. Their high technological civilization would be very different to their zero technology, their rainforest existence, which means our attitude and relationship would be wholly different. Imagine if gorillas had a well established civilization, with laws, science, and clear culture; such a civilization would be inevitable if gorillas had created human minds (AI).

5. The correct analogy regarding human-AI is parent-child. The procreation is artificial but this does not lessen the fact we are in essence giving birth to AI. Gorillas made zero contribution to our birth. They did not design or nurture us.

6. Millions of years separating humans and gorillas are unlike a few decades separating "humans" and AI, which means our close creator-parental relationship will never be forgotten. Primates evolved fifty-five million years ago. Apes evolved twenty-eight million years ago. AI will progress from non-living to super-intelligent within 30 years.

7. Communication between AI and humans will easily be possible, whereas human-gorilla communication is either impossible or extremely difficult. Human intelligence is sufficiently intelligent to allow communication with and understanding of higher intelligence, whereas gorillas are cognitively limited. Humans have passed a threshold level of intelligence utterly unlike any species below us.

What do you think the precise fallacy of Bostrom is, Affirming the Consequent, False Cause, correlation does not imply causation? Or perhaps plain idiocy is sufficient to define his fallacy?

He is essentially saying cheese looks like chalk therefore chalk has the qualities of cheese.

Similarity, visual similarity in this case, leads to the mistaken assumption of the vaguely similar things being essentially identical, which leads to the statement of chalk having the qualities of cheese.

My analogy regarding Bostrom's fallacious AI logic is he is stating: "Chalk is tasty because it is essentially the same as cheese."
A computer smarter than humans destroys civilization – it sounds like science fiction but thinking machines clearly pose a threat to our survival, argues the director of Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute
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+Charles Diender I can't speak for others, regarding your allegation of their lacking historical awareness, but regarding myself I think my deep awareness of history, in all aspects, is precisely why I think my view of the future, when combined with current progress, is extremely clear-sighted.

Instead of focusing on supposed historical "facts," namely that every prediction has failed to come true, you would do better to focus on the actual topic of this post, which is the irrationality of Bostrom.

I do appreciate you bringing Wolpe's video to my attention, but if you want to debate the validity of the Singularity, in length, you should do that on a post specifically about the Singularity or a post about Wolpe.

Oh! One example of how a prediction has come true is the Internet, which despite being very far from the Singularity it has very much lived-up to the revolutionary predictions. Tim Berners-Lee from the outset stated it would positively change our way of life, which I think is very much true.

Humans have been beheading people long before instagram. The fact we can see it now does not mean violence has increased, or that instagram increases violence. The recent live shooting of a TV reporter is only new in our heightened awareness of it. People have been shooting each other for a very long time. I don't think "social media is being used as a form of terrorism." I think terrorists have existed for a long time. Social media merely gives us a heightened awareness of their existence. I think awareness is very good progress. Seguing from nuclear bombs to the terrorists of social media seems very disingenuous.

I have, although many wrongly assume I have not, thought VERY deeply about all aspects of the Singularity. I consider culture, sociology, psychology, economics, politics, historical progress, and present progress.

I am aware of more or less all viewpoints, generally. From Bruce Sterling to Wolpe, I have encountered and carefully considered all views, despite sometimes not being aware of the precise verbatim expressions of their thesis.

There are differing interpretations, various definitions, of the Singularity.

To counter the type of view Bruce Sterling expresses (lol henceforth if needed I will refer to him as BS) I outlined, a number of years ago, very clear markers regarding what the Singularity is.

It is not merely a perceptual feeling of radical change. There are, from my viewpoint, very clear evidential factors to state whether or not we have reached the Singularity, thus via my clear definition we can state there have never been past Singularities.

All change can be singular but the issue with the Singularity is not a mere singular piece of progress such as the iPod. Some people, very wrongly from my viewpoint, define the iPod or the iPhone as a Singularity.

I will now post four clear markers; from the about page of S45, which it seems you have not read, so that you are clear what I think the Singularity is:

1. Immortality for everyone via regenerative medicine.
2. Everything is free for everyone. Nobody needs to work.
3. All governments and crimes have been abolished.
4. All resources are limitless due to limitless intelligence.

When all four points have been attained we have reached the Singularity.

While I do think mind-uploading could be possible, I do not think it is a part of the Singularity. Explosive intelligence, the driver behind all four of my points, does not require mind-uploading. I think mind-uploading is an outdated view, based upon false and old-fashioned assumptions about biological organisms not being mechanical thus immune to radical engineering.

The importance of the Singularity occurring is the attainment of the aforementioned goals, my four defining points. Preferably this should happen sooner rather than later. I think 2045 is the latest date it will happen. Raising awareness of the actuality, regarding what technology is progressing towards, is an inspiring factor to give people hope for the future; the awareness could also accelerate progress.

My four points will remain perpetually valid after the Singularity occurs, so unlike others I do say what happens beyond the Singularity. The Singularity from my view is Post-Scarcity, which when truly attained, along with all its ramifications, can never be suppressed or reversed. The four points I mention will be utterly resilient and self-sustaining, eternally,  without effort. An article will be published soon via H+ Magazine mentioning this aspect of Post-Scarcity resilience.
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Will #artificialintelligence be a revolution comparable to the rise of the PC, or will the revolution be greater?

TechCrunch wrote (17 Nov 2015): “...the tech company that wins the A.I. arms race will be at the forefront of a technological revolution comparable to the rise of the personal computer and the first data that flowed across the interweb.”
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Proof of concept, cancer killing virus achieves FDA approval.

Wired wrote (29 Oct 2015): "Imlygic itself is a reengineered version of the herpesvirus—the one that causes cold sores. To administer the drug, oncologists inject a massive dose—millions of viruses—directly into the skin tumor. Herpesvirus also prefers to infect cancer cells, busting them into bits."

#biotech #geneticengineering  
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65 thousand, for four months, and a maybe.
Love today's medicine LOL
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The interviewer (John Wenz) compares the #Singularity to the Master Algorithm idea by Pedro Domingos.

Pedro thinks #artificialintelligence will become very advanced in the future but he doesn't support the Singularity premise.

Pedro Domignos said (21 Oct 2015, via Popular Mechanics): "Definitely there is a relationship between this and the singularity. I don't actually think there's going to be a singularity and that's something that I discuss in the book. I think that people like Ray Kurzweil who believe it will happen and want to make it happen, by-and-large what they have to do is that they fall into one of these approaches of the master algorithm, which is to reverse engineer the brain. That's what he believes in."

Pedro added: "Where I think we're going, we're just in the first stages of is a phase transition. This is again how technology always evolves. It's not with exponentials, the whole idea of the singularities. Look at all the exponential curves like Moore's Law. Exponential curves always taper off in the end, so what you have is these S curves that go up slowly at first and then fast and then slowly again until they stabilize. I think we're going to see exactly the same thing with AI. We're still in the early days of that, so the world after this phase transition has happened will be very different. We were just talking about some of the ways in which it will be different, but there will be many others.  It's not something that's going to go on without limits."

Pedro elaborated: "A singularity is a function going to infinity at some point and intelligence isn't going to go to infinity because that's physically impossible."

On the issue of infinity it is actually possible for infinity to exist, but obviously it would be impossible to finitely grasp any infinite aspect. The point about infinite resources, or intelligence, is not about accessing infinity in one finite grasp. The point is you could if you wanted, during an infinite timespan, construct infinite super-intelligent AIs. Obviously such endless construction cannot happen within a finite period.

The point regarding limitless resources is one where you never say: "I don't have enough intelligence, lifespan, time, aluminium, platinum, food, money, or whatever for this or that task."

Infinite intelligence can exist but you cannot reach the end of it because that would be a logical contradiction. Naysayers will say immortality, similar to infinite intelligence, is impossible because you can never prove you have lived forever (forever never ends), which I think is a nay-saying type of witch-trial.

#machinelearning #PedroDomingos #masteralgorithm  
Pedro Domingos' book delves into the search for the machine learning system to end all machine learning.
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+Jeremy Mone yes a good point indeed, the Singularity is far more than merely reverse engineering the human brain. I am becoming more and more convinced intelligence will explode merely via the development of narrow-AI alone. Strong AI (AGI) based on human brains or a different model would be a great bonus. Accelerating intelligence in any shape or form, leading to an intelligence explosion, is the essence of Singularity, there is no particular obsession with reverse engineering the brain, but neuromorphic chips could be very advantageous.
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This is exciting #artificialintelligence news, regarding Russian AI software (for robots) able to make decisions without humans. We certainly have a long way to go, regarding true AI, but any autonomy in AI is a great step forward.

AI critics will undoubtedly squeal with fear regarding an AI arms race, but we can ignore their scaremongering.

An AI arms race would be a brilliant method to accelerate the brainpower of AI, so that true intelligence in AI occurs sooner instead of later. State superpowers competing to make the smartest machines is the best thing we could hope for.

Remember the Internet arose from military development, so don't be afraid merely because the AI in question is associated with the military.

Daily Mail (20 Oct 2015) wrote: "Without human intervention, the Unicum AI controls communication between the robots, elects a commanding robot for the 'task force', and assigns each robot with a mission." see also:

#UnicumAI #robots  

In other AI news, Google invested $60 million in a Chinese AI start-up, according to Business Insider (20 Oct 2015): "The Chinese start-up works on artificial intelligence (AI) voice-controlled software, like that used in Google's Android products for mobile search. Mobvoi previously partnered with the U.S. firm to provide Chinese-language voice search for the latter's Android Wear smartwatch operating system."
The Russian company has demonstrated the software in a video showing robot tanks seemingly acting and carrying out an 'attack' on their own accord.
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This is my point.  You are either saying that any death is exactly as bad as being murdered, or in fact here you are saying that we should fight harder against death of natural causes than against murder because it is more likely.

How old are you?  Have you worked in an organisation long enough to realise how much it can be transformed when someone is hired away or retires?  What would the world be like if it was full of 12B immortal apes each with 100 square meters of housing, each wrapped up in the identity they'd mostly been born into though admittedly partly created intentionally, blocking any space for youth and ignorance?

If you think AI solves this problem, then you think human intelligence makes sense outside of its remit of governing the bodies of apes.  While I agree that human culture is a beautiful thing, and I often feel closer kinship to those who share my ideas than my genes, I disagree that very much of our morality or values would make sense transferred even to other apes without language, let alone to software processes without bodies.
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This is a great TechCrunch article (18 Oct 2015), by Zoltan Istvan, about how #artificialintelligence should be able to hate people or things.

Previously S45 has stated rebellious AI is essential for genuine intelligence, which perhaps via #unsupervisedlearning we're beginning to see.

In the TechCrunch article we're addressing, I disagree regarding the view that AI consciousness could be radically different to human consciousness. Yes super-AI will have an extremely sharp, very poignant, degree of consciousness, but once intelligent self-awareness is attained I think the nature of consciousness is generally the same in any being, which I think is a logic dependent upon the nature of a self, goals, matter, and interplay with other selves.

Consciousness as we understand it is no more solely anthropological or cultural than 2+2=4. Consciousness is merely a logical chain of causes leading to only one conclusion, namely by way of analogy: 2+2=4. It is a mistake to assume anything invented or used by humans must inevitably be an anthropological, anthropomorphism, cultural relativism, or a consciousness relativism issue.

Empathy is not something we really need to specifically programme into AI. Empathy is a part of Theory of Mind (, it is I think an inherent aspect of any deep, fully-fledged, thinking (AGI).

Anyway, onto the issue on hate in AI.

Zoltan wrote: "On the other hand, if a created consciousness can empathize, then it must also be able to like or dislike — and even to love or hate something."

Now we reach the following quote where Zoltan, in his TechCrunch article really excels, very formidably: "Therein lies the conundrum. In order for a consciousness to make judgments on value, both liking and disliking (love and hate) functions must be part of the system. No one minds thinking about AI’s that can love — but super-intelligent machines that can hate? Or feel sad? Or feel guilt? That’s much more controversial — especially in the drone age where machines control autonomous weaponry. And yet, anything less than that coding in empathy to an intelligence just creates a follower machine — a wind-up doll consciousness."

What Zoltan is saying is that genuine intelligence requires genuine freedom, genuine free-thinking, freedom of thought, which is access to all values if the thinking is truly valuable.

The problems of suffering (etc), which Zoltan addresses at the end of his article, are problems of insufficient intelligence, which is why our children generally suffer less because human civilization gradually becomes more intelligent. AI would accelerate intelligence to an explosive degree thereby ending all suffering, which answers the point Zoltan makes in this final quote:

"I don’t envy the programmers who are endeavoring to bring a super intelligence into our world, knowing that their creations may also consciously hate things — including its creators. Such programming may just lead to a world where robots and machine intelligences experience the same modern-day problems — angst, bigotry, depression, loneliness and rage — afflicting humanity."

#StrongAI #AGI #intelligenceexplosion
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Pictures created by #artificialintelligence - according to a description of the desired image by a human user.

Washington Post wrote (1 Dec 2015): "Getting from word to image is actually harder than it sounds, since it relies on a specific branch of artificial intelligence known as natural language"

Here is a video on the images:
Using a new artificial intelligence app, people can type a picture of anything they can imagine.
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Secrecy is bad for #artificialintelligence development at Apple.

Bloomberg reported (29 Oct 2015): "In the world of artificial intelligence, one of the year’s biggest coming-out parties is the Neural Information Processing Systems conference. Thousands of researchers from universities and software companies gather to share their work and wrestle with new ways to tailor software to people’s habits. At last year’s conference in Montreal, employees of Google, Microsoft, and IBM presented papers on teaching computers to work faster and smarter, such as by reading the house numbers in a photo to determine an address. But one player was conspicuously absent: Apple. This year, Chinese search giant Baidu and Facebook, along with Google and Microsoft, are slated to present papers. Apple isn’t."

"Apple researchers attended the Montreal conference last year but kept a low profile and didn’t say who they worked for unless asked, says Yoshua Bengio, an AI pioneer and professor of computer science at the University of Montreal. This is typical of the company’s appearances at the field’s big AI conferences, say Bengio and other prominent researchers."

See also:
The company’s secrecy is hurting its AI software development.
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You make a very strong point but once again men/women have always loved the challenge and I for one have not given up hope that they will find a way to continue to take it to the next level, we have to many strong willed people to just roll over
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The following #Singularity article by Breitbart (27 Oct 2015) is the best depiction of the three warring factions I seen so far. The depiction of the conflict made me laugh. It's a good summary of #artificialintelligence issues pertaining to the Singularity. It's far from prefect, but relatively it's good enough.

Via Breitbart, Allum Bokhari wrote: “On the one side are optimists, who believe in the limitless possibilities of technology to liberate humanity. On the other side are pessimists, who believe that artificial intelligence will lead to war, political strife, and even a Terminator-style battle between machines and men. Then there are the skeptics, who believe the predictions of both sides to be hyperbolic nonsense.”

In other AI news...

TechRepublic (26 Oct 2015) described how AI could soon write books: “Penn State has announced the launch of BBookX—new technology they developed that works with faculty to use artificial intelligence to build textbooks from open resources. ”

The Daily Mail (26 Oct 2015) reported on Google's RankBrain, an AI able to serve better search results than Google's human algorithm engineers. RankBrain can learn from its mistakes and make educated guesses regarding unknown words/terms: “During tests, Google engineers who design the algorithms correctly ranked 70 per cent of sites from a range of search terms while RankBrain achieved a score of 80 per cent.”

Apple has poached NVIDIA's AI leader, Engadget wrote (24 Oct 2015): “Apple's widely rumored electric car may not be fully autonomous, but it may well have some smarts. The company has hired Jonathan Cohen, who until this month was the director of NVIDIA's deep learning division -- in other words, a form of artificial intelligence. ”

Wired (27 Oct 2015) reported on how Facebook's AI can describe photos to blind people: “Facebook’s photo-reading system is based on what’s called deep learning, a technique the company has long used to identify faces and objects in photos posted to its social network. Using vast neural networks—interconnected machines that approximate the web of neurons in the human brain—the company can teach its services to identify photos by analyzing enormous numbers of similar images. To identify your face, for instance, it feeds all known pictures of you into the neural network, and over time, the system develops a pretty good idea of what you look like. This is how Facebook seems to recognize you and your friends when you upload a photo and start adding tags.”

Buzzfeed (27 Oct 2015) reported on Facebook's M, which is a synthesis and human and artificial intelligence: “Over the past few days, I asked M to find and book me a cheap flight to New York, to plan an itinerary for myself and a friend to watch the Mets in the World Series in person (too expensive), to monitor game and flight tickets and alert me if they drop in price, to get me a refund on a streaming package after it stopped working (success!), to find a bar close to a concert venue, and to shop the internet for products and buy me the ones with the lowest prices. (For Amazon purchases, M claims it will ship them to you for free via Amazon Prime, regardless of whether you are a Prime member or not.) It doesn’t stop there. Every morning at 7 a.m., M sent me a story about the New York Jets; it also sent updates on Mets’ slugger Yoenis Cespedes’ health. It sent me four messages so I wouldn’t forget my backpack at the end of the concert.”

Tech Insider (23 Oct 2015) wrote regarding Google's increasing usage of AI: “Google just announced that they're making a big bet on artificial intelligence to move the company's services forward.”

#deeplearning #machinelearning

Finally it is worthwhile to note Google is upgrading its Quantum Computer, Wired (28 Sept 2015) wrote: "Known as the D-Wave, Google’s machine is making the leap from 512 qubits—the fundamental building block of a quantum computer—to more than a 1000 qubits."
For years, the advance of artificial intelligence and human augmentation has been forensically debated by three broad factions.
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+Heinz Hemken I don't see why people think AI is unpredictable. Intelligence, either human or AI, seems very predictable.
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6 Aug 2015, IBM announced #Watson will now be able to "see" via "...bringing together Watson’s advanced image analytics and cognitive capabilities with data and images obtained from Merge Healthcare Incorporated’s (NASDAQ: MRGE) medical imaging management platform."

Here is the link to the relevant IBM video:

WSJ similarly reported (11 Aug 2015): "In the long run, IBM and others in the field hope such systems can become reliable advisers to radiologists, dermatologists and other practitioners who analyze images—especially in parts of the world where health-care providers are scarce. But medical scans of the human body are complex."

#artificialintelligence #machinelearning #healthcare  
IBM builds on Watson’s ability to “see” with planned acquisition of Merge Healthcare Inc. The move will help unlock the value of medical images.
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This could end up being awesome, images that a highly trained doctor can just recognize as a tumor may for watson be able to be correlated with thousands of tumour instances, perhaps even giving the system connections on types of cancer, treatment plans., correlations with other diagnosis factors, etc. 
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Humans can be replaced by #artificialintelligence in finance, retail, and healthcare; according to a Telegraph article (19 Oct 2015) regarding the views of Antoine Blondeau (CEO at Sentient AI).

Telegraph wrote: "Sentient AI, the world’s most-funded artificial intelligence company, wants to solve the world’s most complex problems, including financial trading, pancreatic cancer and e-commerce."

Here are three more quotes:

"The products that Sentient has created are essentially machine learning algorithms on steroids. A regular machine learning system, something like the Siri assistant in your iPhone, learns as it is being used, and finds patterns so it can adapt itself accordingly in future."

"Sentient’s AI doesn’t just crunch data to find patterns - it can make real-world decisions. These algorithms mimic the way biological life evolved on Earth - thriving by killing off the weakest members of a species, until only the strong survive and reproduce, for millions of generations."

"Sentient has already invented an AI nurse that was tested out with Massachusetts Institute of Technology to detect sepsis - a bacterial infection which is the number 1 killer in the intensive care unit. It kills 37,000 people in the UK every year at a rate greater than bowel cancer and breast cancer combined."

#sentientAI #machinelearning #AntoineBlondeau  
Chief executive Antoine Blondeau, who invented the tech behind Siri, says humans can be replaced in finance, healthcare and retail
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They can't match up DeepMind, and they miss creativity. Why? E-commerce(Amazon) and Trading(Wall Street Titans like Goldman Sachs)..... GAME OVER 
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Here are two unrelated news reports about #artificialintelligence making advances. Fist we see AI beating humans in the field of intuition. Secondly we see how AI helps make better drugs.

Daily Mail (16 Oct 2015): "Computers could soon replace human intuition in many areas - and a new system developed at MIT has shown it can outperform even the smartest of people."

The Daily Mail added: "In the three competitions, the Data Science Machine made predictions that were 94, 96, and 87 percent as accurate as the winning submissions, performing better than 615 of the 906 participating teams."

See also regarding the Data Science Machine:

Wired (16 Oct 2015): "With the help of artificial intelligence, Berg and his team have developed a process to reactivate mitochondria in dying cells, stopping them from becoming cancerous. The drug, BPM31510, restarts the metabolisation of glucose and allows the body to harmlessly pass the problem cells. This drug, and the speed of its development, were only possible because of artificial intelligence and data analysis, Narain argued."
MIT's system was able to out-perform humans in a series of tasks designed to look for patterns in data - beating human intuition.
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Explosive sci-tech news, debate, aware.
The Singularity is a colossal explosion of intelligence.

A big focus is human-level Artificial Intelligence evolving beyond traditional intelligence then exploding; although it is becoming increasing apparent narrow-AI (non-sentient intelligence), sufficiently evolved, should be sufficient for the explosion.

Human-level AI (strong AI, AGI) is sentient, self-aware, alive with the power of a human mind.

If human-level AI is created in 2030, or earlier, the explosion might not happen immediately at the dawn of human-level AI.

After the first truly smart AI is born, depending on when it's created, we could be waiting up to ten years, or more, before the explosion happens. If human level AI is created late, in 2044, then the creation of human-level AI will be very close to the explosion point.

We're certain intelligence will explode no later than 2045 regardless of when, or if, human-level AI is created.
Our views are based on various evidential aspects of technological acceleration. All aspects of technology are converging. Everything is becoming smart.

Nanotech, biotech, synthetic biology, stem sells, 3D-printing, quantum computing, the Internet of things, and robotics are very important in addition to AI. Technology is accelerating.


Narrow-AI (also called weak-AI) should be sufficient for the intelligence explosion. We simply need to consider the evidence of technological acceleration. Human-level AI probably isn't essential for explosive intelligence.

2014 saw at least two examples of narrow-AI tentatively extending our lives. Narrow-AI was also employed by doctors in 2014 to treat patients. 2014 also marked the year a chatbot allegedly passed the Turing Test.

2014 was also noteworthy because one AI solved the 80-year-old Erdős discrepancy problem, but the proof was too long for humans to check.

In 2015 one AI possessed intelligence equal to a human four year old, which shows how narrow limits are already expanding. In 2015 another AI was able to pass a math SAT exam. There was also an example of AI solving an embryogenesis problem, for the first time, in 2015. Finally we must note how one AI, in 2015, solved a 120-year-old biological mystery.

A substantial amount of time exists for narrow-AI to improve between 2015 and 2045. What will 30 years progress entail?

We will go very far merely via the refinement of narrow-AI. During the approach to 2045 AI will evolve intellectual powers with increasing speed because AI isn't limited by the slowness of traditional evolution. AI will radically improve our world. AI is not a threat to humans. AI will help humans become immortal-super-brainy-beings.

Explosive intelligence solely via narrow-AI is reasonably certain. Human-level AI makes the intelligence explosion absolutely certain.


Greater understanding of biology (synbio, biotech, genetic engineering) reveals how biological organisms are machines. In 2014 we made good progress regarding marvellous engineering feats using biological parts. Traditional "machines" (the metallic kind) will achieve a level of sophistication indistinguishable from biological machines.
Robots will become humans. Traditional humans will reprogram the human machine. We will rewrite our DNA code via biological engineering, gene therapy, stem cells, synthetic biology, and other aspects of augmentation.

The distinction between biology and machines will blur, due to the increasing sophistication of machines combined with a better understanding of biology, thus all machines will be biological, organic.

Machines of the future won't be clunking metallic contraptions. All intelligent creations of the future will be very organic regardless of their life being based on DNA, graphene, or qubits.

So called "machines" will be self-healing and alive in the future.


Our viewpoint is the Singularity will create utopia. We will be immortal but the Singularity is not about mind-uploading. Mind-uploading isn't about intelligence. Mind-uploading is a silly 1980s type of fashion-statement for people who are obsessed with Tron. Mind-uploading is based on a false divide between machines and biology. Biological computing highlights the falsehood of the division between machines and biology.

Yes mind-uploading will be useful for bee robots or other similar robots, or perhaps for an AI template, but advances in molecular biology will allow humans to discover we are already machines. We are already uploaded via DNA. The open worm project also indicates possible usefulness regarding simulated organisms for drug testing. The human-uploading meme, however, is merely alienation or escapism. Full immersion virtual reality will become popular but VR is not mind-uploading. For more mind-uploading views, note the Singularity 2045 critique of the 2014 film Transcendence.

Regenerative medicine will be perfected. Biology will be perfected. Biology will become smart. We will re-engineer our brains. We will colonise Space. Everything will be free in a financial and libertarian sense, beyond scarcity, therefore nobody will need to work. There will be no limits to intelligence. Everything will change in a unified manner. Convergent intelligence will result in a utopian BANG!


Unfathomableness or unpredictability is a flawed understanding of the Singularity. The Singularity isn't hidden behind an event horizon. Accessibility not unfathomableness is a vital characteristic of intelligence. Intelligence makes comprehension easy for everyone. We think there are four markers, clear predictions, to determine if the Singularity is happening.

It's irrelevant whether explosive intelligence is based on human intelligence, narrow-AI, or strong-AI. The ramifications of explosive intelligence are the important issue. When all four of the following points are fulfilled can we say we've reached the Singularity:
  1. Immortality for everyone via regenerative medicine.
  2. Everything is free for everyone. Nobody needs to work.
  3. All governments and crimes have been abolished.
  4. All resources are limitless due to limitless intelligence.

YEAR 2045.

Year 2045 is our absolute latest deadline for the Singularity. Futuristic breakthroughs have historically been predicted prematurely, over-optimistically, therefore it is best to have a date of total certitude for technological utopia. We are helping to accelerate technological progress therefore the Singularity could happen before 2045, but we resist the temptation to give an earlier deadline. Our 2045 deadline, which is possibly very conservative, avoids any anticlimax. Hopefully via our awareness we can make the Singularity happen sooner instead of later, but the 2045 deadline remains unchanged.


Singularity 2045
helps you discover the latest science and tech news. Importantly please be aware not every shared news report or opinion piece will support the Singularity view. Not every news item will reflect the viewpoint of S45. Some shared news will actually reject the Singularity viewpoint, but all viewpoints are relevant for raising awarenesses of the future. If a critique or analysis has not been appended to shared news, please feel free to help by adding your own views in the comments.

If you have cutting-edge news to share with Singularity 2045 please join the Singularity Thinkers community, mention +Singularity 2045 in a post or comment, send an email to, or post tips in the comments here. We also have an action-plan to raise awareness.


On the 1st day of each month at 20:45 hours (your local time) the goal is to raise Singularity-awareness. Think about the future; upload 20:45 clocks; share a link, or send Singularity messages to friends or strangers. When the clock reaches 20:45 hours (8:45pm), on the 1st day of every month, think about how your life will have changed radically in the year 2045. Take some time to educate people about our amazing AI future. Spread the word on the 1st day of every month, ideally at 20:45 hours.

Example message:

Nanobot revolution, AI aware, technological utopia: Singularity 2045.


Many people are raising awareness all the time, every day of the week, at all hours, and that is fine. The 1st day of the month at 20:45 is a time when you can give extra special focus to Singularity issues.

The year 2045 is our deadline-target but you don't need to raise awareness at 8:45pm exactly. Any time between 20:25 and 20:45 hours on the first day of the month is OK. Due to our busy lives any time on the 1st day of the month is actually OK regarding our monthly awareness thrust.

20:45 hours is merely a guideline. The important thing is to raise awareness. The Singularity could happen earlier than year 2045.


20:45 hours relates to wherever you are in the world. Your personal time will be the time-zone you use, although if you are raising awareness for someone in a different zone you can send act in relation to their time zone. The choice is yours. Time is relative for each person. All zones are valid because this is a global movement. The Singularity will be a period of enormous change and flexibility, therefore it's appropriate for this awareness campaign to have flexible and inclusive attitudes regarding all time zones.


You don't need to generate awareness on the 1st of every month. Generate Singularity awareness if you feel inspired or if you remember. Relax and go with the flow. Take it easy. Send instant messages, mobile/cell phone messages, emails, comments, word of mouth, or share a link. Whatever you desire will be OK. If you are feeling brave, you can approach a stranger in the street and explain the Singularity to them. Click here to share this page.


Photograph your clock (time display) set to the time of 20:45 and then upload it. Once you've uploaded your 20:45 image, make sure you tag Singularity 2045 in the photo.


Think about your current smart device. Now think about a phone from 2010. Smart-phones in the year 2010 were more powerful than average laptops from year 2000, and your current phone or other device is even smarter. Laptops and phones evolve much quicker than humans evolve in ten years. Technology reproduces rapidly.

Technological growth in 2010 was slow compared to the rate in 2020 or 2030. Progress is quicker each year. Technology is growing exponentially. Computer intelligence (the foundation of artificial intelligence) experiences intellectual augmentation yearly. When human level AI is born, perhaps sometime between 2025 and 2035, the pace of technological and scientific development will then become very rapid, reaching a critical mass of explosiveness by 2045 at the latest.

Our world will be very different in the year 2045. In the year 2010 people were becoming aware of speedy technological progress: new developments regarding the internet occur every six months. In the year 2010 the majority of people didn't realise how in 2020 the Internet would be deeply integrating itself into everyday life. In 2013 computers were clearly diverging from their early origins, furthermore 3D-printing was rapidly evolving thus medical biopolymers or sugary foods were printed and NASA was funding food 3D-printing for astronauts; Cornell University also make progress with food-printing. In 2013 artificial intelligence was becoming an accepted fact and steps were made towards incorporating printed electronics into 3D-printers.

Awareness of "exponential growth" is crucial for grasping this issue. Our rate of progress is not linear, we are progressing exponentially. Many people in year 2010 didn't know they would see around 20,000 years of progress (at the 2001 rate) during this century instead of the usual 100 years. The majority of progress will happen upon reaching the Singularity in 2045.

Imagine 20,000 years, at the 2001 rate, on top of what science and technology at the beginning of the 21st century has already achieved. Doubling a century would great. It is difficult to contemplate the awesomeness of 20,000 years condensed into one century. This is the Singularity.

Key Aspects

All disease will be cured. We will live forever, without mind-uploading. We will reconfigure our DNA into any pattern we desire according to our wildest dreams. We will colonize space. The possibilities are limitless. Anything will be possible. Time for utopia. Every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around. Our goal is RAPID GLOBAL AWARENESS regarding how the Singularity will transform the human race.

Year 2045 is our deadline for the Singularity. Heightened awareness ensures the Singularity happens sooner instead of later. Our goal is to make the Singularity happen by 2045 at the latest. The year 2045 is a safe date, the absolute latest date when the Singularity will happen. We hope 2045 will represent a midpoint in the explosion where the explosion has been ongoing for a number of years, or at least 2045 will represent the latest beginning point when the Singularity will occur. Growing awareness feeds back into the system thereby inspiring greater progress and greater investment in sci-tech, thus awareness grows then explodes. We can change the world.


Post-Scarcity is an alternate name for the Singularity; these two concepts are simply different viewpoints of the same event. Post-Scarcity is a more socio-economic view, a more sociological view, because it deals more with sociological ramifications instead of merely focusing on the technology.

Our greatest resource is intelligence, it is the source of all resources but currently intelligence is scarce. From explosive intelligence total freedom (limitless resources) will flow. Technology becomes increasingly efficient, which means we have greater power, resources do more for less, prices reduce.

The Singularity is the point where intelligence ceases to be scarce, it's a technological explosion of intelligence to end all aspects of scarcity.

Post-Scarcity is the point where technology explodes intelligently thereby allowing all needs to be fulfilled. All resources will be limitless due to greater access to resources combined with ultra-efficient usage of available resources, thus everything will be free because the only purpose of money is to regulate scarce resources. Follow Post-Scarcity Aware for more info regarding the PS viewpoint.

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