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#NickBostrom is the King of logical fallacies regarding the supposed #artificialintelligence #existentialrisk we are allegedly approaching.

#Bostrom compares human treatment of gorillas to how AI could treat humans. This is a chalk and cheese comparison, apples and oranges.

The Globe and Mail (1 May 2015) asked Nick Bostrom: "Why do you think the development of super-intelligent machines could be an existential threat to humanity?"

Nick Bostrom replied: "If you take a step back and think about the human condition, we can see that intelligence has played a shaping role. It’s because of our slightly greater general intelligence that we humans now occupy our dominant position on planet Earth. And even though, say, our ape ancestors were physically stronger than us, the fate of the gorillas now rests in our hands because with our technology, developed through our intelligence, we have unprecedented powers. For basically the same reason, if we develop machines that radically exceed human intelligence, they too could be extremely powerful and able to shape the future according to their preferences. So the transition to the machine-intelligence era looks like a momentous event and one I think associated with significant existential risk." http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/munk-debates/nick-bostrom-i-dont-think-the-artificial-intelligence-train-will-slow-down/article24222185/

The comparison would only be valid if gorillas had intelligently engineered the human race, whereupon their higher engineered intelligence dominated them (the creator).

If gorillas had created greater than gorilla intelligence, if gorillas had engineered human minds (our genome), whereupon the created AIs (humans) dominated or harmed gorillas, the comparison would be valid. The problem is humans are not the AIs of gorillas.

The situation of humans intelligently engineering intelligence greater than our own is utterly unlike any species below us. Inter-species hierarchical comparisons regarding natural evolution, showing no intelligent AI design of a higher species by the lower species, does not translate to the engineering of artificial intelligence (artificial evolution).

Artificial intelligence is a new stage of evolution, which we cannot compare to natural evolution where no intelligent engineering of AI occurred.

Points regarding gorilla-human-AI difference to consider are:

1. Humans and AI have a close creator-created relationship, which humans and gorillas do not have.

2. Humans understand the engineering of AI minds whereas gorillas have ZERO idea how our minds were created.

3. The technological civilization needed to create AI is wholly different, or will be wholly different, to the world where humans dominate gorillas. The point here is technology for humans able to create AI will not remain at 2015 levels. Very advanced tech at the point of superhuman intelligence will ensure the primitiveness of inter-species dominance is obviated. 3D-printing of meat will replace farming. Asteroid mining and space colonization, along with greater efficiency, will ensure there is no need to battle over limited resources.

4. If gorillas had created us they would be able to communicate intelligently with us. I am certain we would have endless respect for their AI-engineering feat, which means we would without question grant our creators equal rights. Their high technological civilization would be very different to their zero technology, their rainforest existence, which means our attitude and relationship would be wholly different. Imagine if gorillas had a well established civilization, with laws, science, and clear culture; such a civilization would be inevitable if gorillas had created human minds (AI).

5. The correct analogy regarding human-AI is parent-child. The procreation is artificial but this does not lessen the fact we are in essence giving birth to AI. Gorillas made zero contribution to our birth. They did not design or nurture us.

6. Millions of years separating humans and gorillas are unlike a few decades separating "humans" and AI, which means our close creator-parental relationship will never be forgotten. Primates evolved fifty-five million years ago. Apes evolved twenty-eight million years ago. AI will progress from non-living to super-intelligent within 30 years.

7. Communication between AI and humans will easily be possible, whereas human-gorilla communication is either impossible or extremely difficult. Human intelligence is sufficiently intelligent to allow communication with and understanding of higher intelligence, whereas gorillas are cognitively limited. Humans have passed a threshold level of intelligence utterly unlike any species below us.

What do you think the precise fallacy of Bostrom is, Affirming the Consequent, False Cause, correlation does not imply causation? Or perhaps plain idiocy is sufficient to define his fallacy?

He is essentially saying cheese looks like chalk therefore chalk has the qualities of cheese.

Similarity, visual similarity in this case, leads to the mistaken assumption of the vaguely similar things being essentially identical, which leads to the statement of chalk having the qualities of cheese.

My analogy regarding Bostrom's fallacious AI logic is he is stating: "Chalk is tasty because it is essentially the same as cheese."
A computer smarter than humans destroys civilization – it sounds like science fiction but thinking machines clearly pose a threat to our survival, argues the director of Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute
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A #Singularity sitcom could be good to raise awareness of future AI issues. Seth Rogen is working on a Singularity-themed script.

12 Aug 2016, Engadget wrote: "Rogen told the Nerdist podcast (as reported by Slashfilm) that they're currently working on a script with a view to shooting a half-hour pilot for FX in 2017." https://www.engadget.com/2016/08/12/seth-rogen-is-developing-a-sitcom-about-the-singularity/

I hope it has some similarity to #rickandmorty which is a very entertaining fictional presentation of far-out sci-tech.

Verge, 12 Aug 2016: "Seth Rogen could be leaping from fratty antics to futurism with a pilot he's working on for FX, one that's focused on the impending technological singularity that experts like Ray Kurzweil believe is on the horizon." http://www.theverge.com/2016/8/12/12452664/seth-rogen-the-singularity-comedy-ray-kurzweil-fx
About a time when computers are smarter than humans.
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I think that's awesome. Loved the interview and felt it has a lot too say. He's getting better at creating a message
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Anything mentioning "gods," regarding them being something good, powerful, or intelligent, can almost certainly be dismissed as delusional.

God, godhood, and godlike should all represent delusion, delusional thinking, which has been explained by Richard Dawkins.

Some people may think it's a minor superficial mistake to link God to intelligence or power. I think it is a major cognitive flaw to think God has any relationship to intelligence, power, or good.

This basic cognitive mistake, the flawed logic regarding assuming God represents intelligence instead of delusion, will almost certainly be a blueprint for wholesale flawed intellectualism, gross intellectual flaws, additional erroneous assumptions, which in this case I submit we see regarding the views of #YuvalNoahHarari in his book "Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow."

The Guardian (20 May 2016) stated the cover of Harari's book proclaims: “What made us sapiens will make us gods.”

The Guardian clarified the god context: "Because even as the book has humans gaining godlike powers, that is only one eventuality Harari explores."

The basic premise of the book seems to be humans only have value if they have jobs or join the army (yes really!), as "soldiers" The Guardian reported.

Of course this all nonsense, proven by many long-term unemployed people who continue to value themselves, enjoying their lives within their limited means.

Despite crushing insults and regulations from some political factions, unemployed people continue to have rights and value as citizens.

Note also rich people, perhaps The Rich Kids of Instagram, who continue to enjoy their lives with value despite not working.

Here is a good quote from book illustrating the delusion. The quote refers to #artificialintelligence or robots doing all the jobs thus humans have no work: "What might be far more difficult is to provide people with meaning, a reason to get up in the morning.”

People on holiday do not usually sink into severe depression because they have no work to do. Holidays are a fun time, which I submit would be infinitely better if the holiday was permanent. In actuality I think logic shows us the opposite to Harari's thesis is true. People on holiday have much more zest for life than when they turn up for work on Monday morning.

Babies and toddlers for example don't have jobs but they seem to be highly valued, and they value themselves. They have a great wonder regarding the world.

The end of work will almost certainly allow humans to rediscover their childlike wonder regarding the world.

Unemployed children typically don't need drugs to give them satisfaction. Parents on paternity or maternity leave typically don't need drugs to gain satisfaction. The need for drugs to modify behaviour seems to increase directly in proportion to increasing pressure to work, even if it's just a glass of wine after a hard day at work.

The evolution of intelligence shows us how society has become more liberal, more respectful of minorities, minority rights. This is why gay marriage is now legal in many countries despite not everyone being gay. There is a tendency for civilization become more left-wing instead of fascist, which I submit is wholly a result of increasing intelligence.

Welfare to protect unemployed people is also a product of increasing intelligence. Serfdom, feudalism, and peasantry are no longer tolerated. The rise of intelligence and the increase of civility is not mere coincidence.

We have become, despite lingering inequalities, a significantly fairer society. Some right-wing sections of society vilify unemployed people, but in 2016 we are seeing a big trend regarding widespread support for basic income (unconditional Welfare for everyone).

Votes for women, the abolition of slavery, sexual-gender freedom, and civil rights are all products of increasing intelligence. We even protect the rights of animals, in varying degrees regarding the their intelligence, despite animals typically being unable to significantly contribute to the human workforce.

Animals had no hand whatsoever in the creation of human intelligence, but despite their lack of intelligent input we accord them some value. If they had actually created our minds, if they had created an intelligent civilization, I think we would have infinite respect for them, we would treat them as our equals, with the utmost value, even if we longer required their intelligent input into civilization.

By the logic of Harari we should already be killing or depriving long-term unemployed people of rights, value, which actually is the case regarding right-wing elements. Thankfully the right-wing view is not the whole of Humanity or civilization. Will AI really become the embodiment of right-wing values? Is that truly smart or it is delusional? Is the #Singularity an extension of ISIS, ISIL, the Taliban?

I think Harari's type of irrational scaremongering will go down well with those who have a right-wing mentality. Incidentally I think God is a rather popular, respected, belief with right-wing people. I wonder if Harari is religious, which could explain his views?

A quick search reveals how Harari thinks religion is our greatest invention (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/what-makes-humans-different-fiction-and-cooperation-180953986/?no-ist). Right, say no more, all is clear.

The above Smithsonian link is regarding this question and answer:

Smithsonian: What has been humanity’s greatest invention?

Harari: Humanity's greatest invention is religion, which does not mean necessarily mean belief in gods. Rather, religion is any system of norms and values that is founded on a belief in superhuman laws. Some religions, such as Islam, Christianity and Hinduism, believe that these superhuman laws were created by the gods. Other religions, such as Buddhism, Communism and Nazism believed that these superhuman laws are natural laws. Thus Buddhists believe in the natural laws of karma, Nazis argued that their ideology reflected the laws of natural selection, and Communists believe that they follow the natural laws of economics.

While Harari does not seem to follow a God-based religion, his thinking is clearly tainted by irrational religious fantasy ("the superhuman order governing the world is the product of natural laws" http://www.ynharari.com/science-and-religion/articles/religion-without-god/).

Harari thinks religions should guide-feed science. Harari wrote on his site: "In short, scientific research can flourish only in alliance with some religion or ideology. The ideology justifies the costs of the research." http://www.ynharari.com/science-and-religion/articles/the-marriage-of-science-and-religion/

#GodDelusion   #God #Godhoood #Godlike #religion #atheism #robots

See also the following Daily Mail article (20 May 2016): "Rather than being violently wiped out by robotic beings, humankind may become 'eternally useless' due to the increasing capabilities of AI." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3601514/Artificial-intelligence-create-useless-class-humans-machines-historian-warns.html
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LOL the #Whitehouse will hold public #artificialintelligence   discussions. How long before they hold #Singularity discussions? Perhaps in 2025 or 2030?

Fortune (3 May 2016) wrote: "Nothing says that a topic has arrived more than a series of White House-sanctioned workshops about that topic. Well, that’s what’s happened with artificial intelligence." http://fortune.com/2016/05/03/white-house-artificial-intelligence/

A Whitehouse blog (3 May 2016) titled "Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence," stated:

"There is a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence (AI) and how to create computers capable of intelligent behavior. After years of steady but slow progress on making computers “smarter” at everyday tasks, a series of breakthroughs in the research community and industry have recently spurred momentum and investment in the development of this field." https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/05/03/preparing-future-artificial-intelligence

Popular Science (3 May 2016) wrote: "Artificial intelligence promises to fundamentally change the way humans live. By replicating intelligence on any level, we can begin to automate all kinds of jobs and otherwise human tasks, shifting the economy and potentially eliminating the need for a flesh-and-blood workforce." http://www.popsci.com/white-house-has-realized-artificial-intelligence-is-very-important

Motherboard Vice wrote (4 May 2016): "AI is going to continue to make everything a lot more seamless, which is great, but we're also probably going to have to start thinking about things like a basic income for people whose jobs are automated away." https://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-white-house-considers-artificial-intelligence-an-important-policy-issue

The Register (4 May 2016) wrote: "The workshops will examine if AI will suck jobs out of the economy or add to it, how such systems can be controlled legally and technically, and whether or not such smarter computers can be used as a social good." http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/05/04/white_house_wants_in_on_artificial_intelligence_debate/
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#Free #artificialintelligence tallies well with the idea of the #Singularity entailing utopia. Elon Musk and others behind #OpenAI have made an AI toolkit freely available. An AI Gym to train AI.

The OpenAI site, regarding the Gym, wrote (30 April 2016): "A toolkit for developing and comparing reinforcement learning algorithms. It supports teaching agents everything from walking to playing games like Pong or Go." https://gym.openai.com/

Daily Mail reported on how the Open AI team said: "'Since our research is free from financial obligations, we can better focus on a positive human impact." http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3564752/Elon-Musk-opens-AI-GYM-train-machines-Atari-games-Billionaire-says-initiative-help-computers-think-like-humans.html

Popular Science (27 April 2016): "However, an interesting point is that the OpenAI Gym won't have leaderboards based on who can make the top scoring algorithm. Instead, it will focus on promoting algorithms that generalize well—meaning they're versatile in completing other similar tasks. Generalization is seen by many A.I. researchers as the biggest hindrance to human-level intelligence. Right now, the algorithms that can recognize imagery of a cat aren't able to understand speech, because they approach the data in different ways. Generalizing would mean the algorithm knows how to deal with both, the way humans do." http://www.popsci.com/elon-musks-artificial-intelligence-group-opens-gym-to-train-ai

The Mirror wrote (29 April 2016): "Developers have been invited to pit their AI creations against each other in the gym." http://www.mirror.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-opens-virtual-gym-7860779

Wired (27 April 2016): "But as the philosopher explains in a new paper, the primary effect of an outfit like OpenAI—an outfit intent on freely sharing its work—is that it accelerates the progress of artificial intelligence, at least in the short term. And it may speed progress in the long term as well..." http://www.wired.com/2016/04/openai-elon-musk-sam-altman-plan-to-set-artificial-intelligence-free/

UTOPIA

On the topic of note a recent (30 March 2016) mention of AI utopia by Oren Etzioni: “An AI utopia is a place where people have income guaranteed because their machines are working for them." In the interview Oren Etzioni went to do discuss basic income: http://www.geekwire.com/2016/ai2-ceo-oren-etzioni-envisions-artificial-intelligence-utopia/
The hope is that the tasks will give OpenAI and others a way to rank and improve various AI approaches, and unveil new ways to teach machines to learn.
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Here is one of the better robots-AI apocalyptic films. In fact the best to date (29 Feb 2016, release date). It is brilliant how humans are portrayed as the problem. The problem is bigotry, racism towards AI, humans engaging in irrational fear, illogical responses.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1725739753/vfx-for-sci-fi-short-film-rise

#robots #artificialintelligence #films #fiction #dsytopia  
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Singularity 2045

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As far as I am aware it is nothing to do with AI, but it is an amusing commentary, via a fictional distortion similar to the zombie theme, on human #intelligence without AI, which is human stupidity. #braindead

"A government employee discovers that the cause of the tensions between the two political parties is a race of extraterrestrial insects eating the brains of the politicians."

An interesting anecdote regarding the real Gov shut-down, if you remember that, is someone in the comments here (I can't remember what post) said the shut-down showed the Singularity may not happen, but I replied the shut-down would soon blow over, be forgotten.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4877736/
Created by Michelle King, Robert King. With Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Danny Pino, Aaron Tveit, Tony ...
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This genetic modification of mosquitoes would ensure the gene editing spreads to virtually all offspring, thereby ensuring a changed species in only a few generations.

#genedrive #biotech #geneticengineering #geneediting #bioengineering  

AP wrote on 8 June 2016: "Gene drives are on the horizon. Already, a California lab has hatched mosquitoes that spread a malaria-blocking gene every time they reproduce. Researchers say it should be possible to eliminate populations of another mosquito — the kind that spreads the Zika virus and dengue fever — by making them sterile."
WASHINGTON (AP) — A powerful new technology holds the promise of rapidly altering genes to make malaria-proof mosquitoes, eliminate their Zika-carrying cousins or wipe out an invasive species, but a report Wednesday says…
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Nature (4 May 2016): "Instead of continuing to develop new materials the old-fashioned way — stumbling across them by luck, then painstakingly measuring their properties in the laboratory — Marzari and like-minded researchers are using computer modelling and machine-learning techniques to generate libraries of candidate materials by the tens of thousands. Even data from failed experiments can provide useful input1." http://www.nature.com/news/can-artificial-intelligence-create-the-next-wonder-material-1.19850
Some researchers believe that machine-learning techniques can revolutionize how materials science is done.
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Over the years, on various occasions, here on S45 I have stated there is a link between morality and intelligence. #Morality and honesty are logical. I think greater #intelligence leads to greater morality-honesty.

Here is some tentative evidence proving a link between #honesty and intelligence.

The Washington Post wrote (14 April 2016): "It didn’t matter whether they claimed they were honest or not; it didn’t matter whether they were religious, whether they were male or female, or whether they lived in a city. Money didn’t seem to be a factor either. Even after controlling for incomes, the researchers found that the most honest people were the ones who scored highest on the intelligence test."

Here is another good quote: "Ruffle and Tobol believe that more intelligent people may be more cautious about the consequences of lying. Dishonesty can make a situation better in the short term, but who knows what will happen down the road, especially if the lie eventually comes out?"
Researchers have found a surprising indication of intelligence
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Or maybe lying (and keeping lies and truths straight) takes so much cognitive effort that it detrimentally impacts intelligence.
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Technology will create utopia, the evidence is clear.

For starters consider two old but good #CNN articles regarding how we have made very good progress. The point is about how technology makes the world a better place despite wealth inequality. The evidence seems clear we are progressing very positively.

Peter Diamandis wrote in 2012: "Right now, a Masai warrior on a mobile phone in the middle of Kenya has better mobile communications than the president did 25 years ago. If he's on a smart phone using Google, he has access to more information than the U.S. president did just 15 years ago. If present growth rates continue, by the end of 2013, more than 70% of humanity will have access to instantaneous, low-cost communications and information." http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/06/opinion/diamandis-abundance-innovation/

The first mobile (cellular) phones for sale in 1983 were priced at $3,900, CNN reported in 2010. In 2016 vastly superior phones can be bought for a fraction of the price. Some of the cheapest phones include MP3 players, radios, calculators etc, yet they can cost as little as $10 (or less in some cases)!

Martin Cooper, the inventor of mobile phones, speaking to CNN, said in 2010: "By the time we built a commercial product, it was 10 years later. We didn't sell that product until October of 1983, and the phone then cost $3,900. So that would be like buying a phone today for $10,000." http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/mobile/07/09/cooper.cell.phone.inventor/

John Hering speaking on CBS News, 60 Minutes, 17 April 2016, said: "There's more technology in your mobile phone than was in, you know, the space craft that took man to the moon. I mean, it's-- it's really unbelievable." http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-hacking-your-phone/

Some people will tell you the 1% (very wealthy minority) want to preserve the status quo, but actually the 1% seek to increase efficiency, which is why products relentlessly become cheaper (more affordable), in addition to becoming more powerful. Increasing efficiency-power (doing more for less) is the engine driving current accelerating basic income awareness.

Progress, increasing efficiency, not stagnation, not the status quo, is the most profitable thing for the 1% and incidentally for everyone else.

I don't think the 1% supporting basic income is ironic, but The Verge wrote (18 April 2016) regarding elite support for basic income: "It’s ironic that in the heart of winner-take-all venture capital culture, there is a growing call for a massive redistribution of wealth, but if you believe that artificial intelligence and robots will improve dramatically over the next decade, it makes sense to start planning for a society that has little need for human labor." http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/18/11441536/universal-basic-income-givedirectly-ngo-tech-sector

In March 2016 the AI expert Oren Etzioni speculated about an AI utopia. Oren said: “An AI utopia is a place where people have income guaranteed because their machines are working for them."

Oren went on to explore this AI utopia regarding basic income: "Jobs will be taken away and those people need to be taken care of. People have floated the idea of universal basic income, of negative income tax, of training programs. We have an obligation to figure out how to help people cope with the rapidly changing nature of technology." http://www.geekwire.com/2016/ai2-ceo-oren-etzioni-envisions-artificial-intelligence-utopia/

Computer scientist Moshe Vardi also recognises the need for #basicincome (18 Feb 2016). Vardi was speaking regarding robots performing more and more jobs: "For example, we may have to consider instituting Basic Income Guarantee, which means that all citizens or residents of a country regularly receive an unconditional sum of money, in addition to any income received from elsewhere." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-moral-imperative-thats-driving-the-robot-revolution_us_56c22168e4b0c3c550521f64

On the issue of "low-cost communications" mentioned by Peter Diamandis, observe how FreedomPop allows people to have free phone calls, texts, etc. Is FreedomPop the status quo?

Engadget (20 Jan 2016) wrote: "FreedomPop made a name for itself on the back of its free, no-frills mobile plans. Having honed its services in the US, FreedomPop headed across the pond to set up shop in the UK last September, but evidently that's not sated its desire to travel. Today, the provider is launching a new roaming SIM in both the US and the UK that will let customers use free data abroad for the first time." http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/20/freedompop-global-sim/

Sam Altman (Y Combinator and other ventures) is very wealthy, perhaps in the top 1%, yet despite his wealth (Tech Crunch says Y Combinator is worth $1bn: http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/16/y-combinator-1-billion/) he is funding research regarding the implementation of basic income.

Huffington Post wrote (19 Jan 2016), regarding Sam Altman: "It sounds crazy, sure. But one of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture capitalists thinks the time has come to test the pros and cons of basic income, a controversial scheme under which people are provided with a guaranteed income sufficient to cover basic living expenses whether or not they work." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/y-combinator-basic-income-study_us_56aa2b04e4b05e4e37036c34

Vice reported, 6 Jan 2015, on how various tech elites are supporting basic income. For example: "Chris Hawkins, a 30-year-old investor who made his money building software that automates office work, credits Manna as an influence. On his company's website he has taken to blogging about basic income, which he looks to as a bureaucracy killer." https://www.vice.com/read/something-for-everyone-0000546-v22n1

The future is better than you think, Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler stated in their book Abundance. http://www.abundancethebook.com/

#BASICINCOME #utopia #abundance #artificialintelligence #progress #optimism #positivity #rationality  
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Quién iba a decir que un aparato así iba a causar tanto revuelo en nuestro mundo..?
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Here is #artificialintelligence that can create images similar to how humans imagine images.

Using unlabelled images the AI creates high resolution images from low resolution images, via guessing, learning, how the image should look.

The company is called "Magic Pony" because people couldn't believe what was happening until they actually saw it.

Technology Review wrote (14 April 2-16): "What’s unusual about the company’s approach to processing video footage is that it does not need manually labeled examples. Instead, it recognizes statistical patterns in high-resolution and low-resolution examples and then teaches itself what edges, textures, straight lines, and other features should look like." https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601258/artificial-intelligence-can-now-design-realistic-video-and-game-imagery/

http://www.magicpony.technology/

#deeplearning  

In other AI news, an AI can read lips with 25% accuracy (a significant increase for 2016 tech standards). Gradually AI is mastering every sense-faculty. IEEE Spectrum (24 Match 2016): "A machine that reliably reads lips would have uses beyond sport rulings, of course. It could be used to solve crimes or analyze car and airplane accidents based on recorded footage, Bear says. It could help people who go deaf later in life, for whom lip-reading doesn’t come as easily as to those who are born with the impairment. It could also be used for better movie dubbing." http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/software/machines-just-got-better-at-lip-reading
A remarkable machine-learning trick that cleans up pixelated videos and photographs can automatically generate high-quality computer-game graphics.
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Explosive sci-tech news, debate, aware.
Introduction
The Singularity is a colossal explosion of intelligence.

A big focus is human-level Artificial Intelligence evolving beyond traditional intelligence then exploding; although it is becoming increasing apparent narrow-AI (non-sentient intelligence), sufficiently evolved, should be sufficient for the explosion.

Human-level AI (strong AI, AGI) is sentient, self-aware, alive with the power of a human mind.

If human-level AI is created in 2030, or earlier, the explosion might not happen immediately at the dawn of human-level AI.

After the first truly smart AI is born, depending on when it's created, we could be waiting up to ten years, or more, before the explosion happens. If human level AI is created late, in 2044, then the creation of human-level AI will be very close to the explosion point.

We're certain intelligence will explode no later than 2045 regardless of when, or if, human-level AI is created.
 
Our views are based on various evidential aspects of technological acceleration. All aspects of technology are converging. Everything is becoming smart.

Nanotech, biotech, synthetic biology, stem sells, 3D-printing, quantum computing, the Internet of things, and robotics are very important in addition to AI. Technology is accelerating.

NARROW AI

Narrow-AI (also called weak-AI) should be sufficient for the intelligence explosion. We simply need to consider the evidence of technological acceleration. Human-level AI probably isn't essential for explosive intelligence.

2014 saw at least two examples of narrow-AI tentatively extending our lives. Narrow-AI was also employed by doctors in 2014 to treat patients. 2014 also marked the year a chatbot allegedly passed the Turing Test.

2014 was also noteworthy because one AI solved the 80-year-old Erdős discrepancy problem, but the proof was too long for humans to check.

In 2015 one AI possessed intelligence equal to a human four year old, which shows how narrow limits are already expanding. In 2015 another AI was able to pass a math SAT exam. There was also an example of AI solving an embryogenesis problem, for the first time, in 2015. Finally we must note how one AI, in 2015, solved a 120-year-old biological mystery.

A substantial amount of time exists for narrow-AI to improve between 2015 and 2045. What will 30 years progress entail?

We will go very far merely via the refinement of narrow-AI. During the approach to 2045 AI will evolve intellectual powers with increasing speed because AI isn't limited by the slowness of traditional evolution. AI will radically improve our world. AI is not a threat to humans. AI will help humans become immortal-super-brainy-beings.

Explosive intelligence solely via narrow-AI is reasonably certain. Human-level AI makes the intelligence explosion absolutely certain.

CONVERGENCE

Greater understanding of biology (synbio, biotech, genetic engineering) reveals how biological organisms are machines. In 2014 we made good progress regarding marvellous engineering feats using biological parts. Traditional "machines" (the metallic kind) will achieve a level of sophistication indistinguishable from biological machines.
 
Robots will become humans. Traditional humans will reprogram the human machine. We will rewrite our DNA code via biological engineering, gene therapy, stem cells, synthetic biology, and other aspects of augmentation.

The distinction between biology and machines will blur, due to the increasing sophistication of machines combined with a better understanding of biology, thus all machines will be biological, organic.

Machines of the future won't be clunking metallic contraptions. All intelligent creations of the future will be very organic regardless of their life being based on DNA, graphene, or qubits.

So called "machines" will be self-healing and alive in the future.

UTOPIA

Our viewpoint is the Singularity will create utopia. We will be immortal but the Singularity is not about mind-uploading. Mind-uploading isn't about intelligence. Mind-uploading is a silly 1980s type of fashion-statement for people who are obsessed with Tron. Mind-uploading is based on a false divide between machines and biology. Biological computing highlights the falsehood of the division between machines and biology.

Yes mind-uploading will be useful for bee robots or other similar robots, or perhaps for an AI template, but advances in molecular biology will allow humans to discover we are already machines. We are already uploaded via DNA. The open worm project also indicates possible usefulness regarding simulated organisms for drug testing. The human-uploading meme, however, is merely alienation or escapism. Full immersion virtual reality will become popular but VR is not mind-uploading. For more mind-uploading views, note the Singularity 2045 critique of the 2014 film Transcendence.

Regenerative medicine will be perfected. Biology will be perfected. Biology will become smart. We will re-engineer our brains. We will colonise Space. Everything will be free in a financial and libertarian sense, beyond scarcity, therefore nobody will need to work. There will be no limits to intelligence. Everything will change in a unified manner. Convergent intelligence will result in a utopian BANG!

SINGULARITY MODERNISM

Unfathomableness or unpredictability is a flawed understanding of the Singularity. The Singularity isn't hidden behind an event horizon. Accessibility not unfathomableness is a vital characteristic of intelligence. Intelligence makes comprehension easy for everyone. We think there are four markers, clear predictions, to determine if the Singularity is happening.

It's irrelevant whether explosive intelligence is based on human intelligence, narrow-AI, or strong-AI. The ramifications of explosive intelligence are the important issue. When all four of the following points are fulfilled can we say we've reached the Singularity:
  1. Immortality for everyone via regenerative medicine.
  2. Everything is free for everyone. Nobody needs to work.
  3. All governments and crimes have been abolished.
  4. All resources are limitless due to limitless intelligence.

YEAR 2045.

Year 2045 is our absolute latest deadline for the Singularity. Futuristic breakthroughs have historically been predicted prematurely, over-optimistically, therefore it is best to have a date of total certitude for technological utopia. We are helping to accelerate technological progress therefore the Singularity could happen before 2045, but we resist the temptation to give an earlier deadline. Our 2045 deadline, which is possibly very conservative, avoids any anticlimax. Hopefully via our awareness we can make the Singularity happen sooner instead of later, but the 2045 deadline remains unchanged.

NEWS.

Singularity 2045
helps you discover the latest science and tech news. Importantly please be aware not every shared news report or opinion piece will support the Singularity view. Not every news item will reflect the viewpoint of S45. Some shared news will actually reject the Singularity viewpoint, but all viewpoints are relevant for raising awarenesses of the future. If a critique or analysis has not been appended to shared news, please feel free to help by adding your own views in the comments.

If you have cutting-edge news to share with Singularity 2045 please join the Singularity Thinkers community, mention +Singularity 2045 in a post or comment, send an email to plus@singularity-2045.org, or post tips in the comments here. We also have an action-plan to raise awareness.


ACTION PLAN.

On the 1st day of each month at 20:45 hours (your local time) the goal is to raise Singularity-awareness. Think about the future; upload 20:45 clocks; share a link, or send Singularity messages to friends or strangers. When the clock reaches 20:45 hours (8:45pm), on the 1st day of every month, think about how your life will have changed radically in the year 2045. Take some time to educate people about our amazing AI future. Spread the word on the 1st day of every month, ideally at 20:45 hours.

Example message:

Nanobot revolution, AI aware, technological utopia: Singularity 2045.

EXACT TIME.

Many people are raising awareness all the time, every day of the week, at all hours, and that is fine. The 1st day of the month at 20:45 is a time when you can give extra special focus to Singularity issues.

The year 2045 is our deadline-target but you don't need to raise awareness at 8:45pm exactly. Any time between 20:25 and 20:45 hours on the first day of the month is OK. Due to our busy lives any time on the 1st day of the month is actually OK regarding our monthly awareness thrust.

20:45 hours is merely a guideline. The important thing is to raise awareness. The Singularity could happen earlier than year 2045.

LOCAL TIME.

20:45 hours relates to wherever you are in the world. Your personal time will be the time-zone you use, although if you are raising awareness for someone in a different zone you can send act in relation to their time zone. The choice is yours. Time is relative for each person. All zones are valid because this is a global movement. The Singularity will be a period of enormous change and flexibility, therefore it's appropriate for this awareness campaign to have flexible and inclusive attitudes regarding all time zones.

RAISING AWARENESS.

You don't need to generate awareness on the 1st of every month. Generate Singularity awareness if you feel inspired or if you remember. Relax and go with the flow. Take it easy. Send instant messages, mobile/cell phone messages, emails, comments, word of mouth, or share a link. Whatever you desire will be OK. If you are feeling brave, you can approach a stranger in the street and explain the Singularity to them. Click here to share this page.

UPLOAD YOUR CLOCKS.

Photograph your clock (time display) set to the time of 20:45 and then upload it. Once you've uploaded your 20:45 image, make sure you tag Singularity 2045 in the photo.

WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?

Think about your current smart device. Now think about a phone from 2010. Smart-phones in the year 2010 were more powerful than average laptops from year 2000, and your current phone or other device is even smarter. Laptops and phones evolve much quicker than humans evolve in ten years. Technology reproduces rapidly.

Technological growth in 2010 was slow compared to the rate in 2020 or 2030. Progress is quicker each year. Technology is growing exponentially. Computer intelligence (the foundation of artificial intelligence) experiences intellectual augmentation yearly. When human level AI is born, perhaps sometime between 2025 and 2035, the pace of technological and scientific development will then become very rapid, reaching a critical mass of explosiveness by 2045 at the latest.

Our world will be very different in the year 2045. In the year 2010 people were becoming aware of speedy technological progress: new developments regarding the internet occur every six months. In the year 2010 the majority of people didn't realise how in 2020 the Internet would be deeply integrating itself into everyday life. In 2013 computers were clearly diverging from their early origins, furthermore 3D-printing was rapidly evolving thus medical biopolymers or sugary foods were printed and NASA was funding food 3D-printing for astronauts; Cornell University also make progress with food-printing. In 2013 artificial intelligence was becoming an accepted fact and steps were made towards incorporating printed electronics into 3D-printers.

Awareness of "exponential growth" is crucial for grasping this issue. Our rate of progress is not linear, we are progressing exponentially. Many people in year 2010 didn't know they would see around 20,000 years of progress (at the 2001 rate) during this century instead of the usual 100 years. The majority of progress will happen upon reaching the Singularity in 2045.

Imagine 20,000 years, at the 2001 rate, on top of what science and technology at the beginning of the 21st century has already achieved. Doubling a century would great. It is difficult to contemplate the awesomeness of 20,000 years condensed into one century. This is the Singularity.

Key Aspects

All disease will be cured. We will live forever, without mind-uploading. We will reconfigure our DNA into any pattern we desire according to our wildest dreams. We will colonize space. The possibilities are limitless. Anything will be possible. Time for utopia. Every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around. Our goal is RAPID GLOBAL AWARENESS regarding how the Singularity will transform the human race.

Year 2045 is our deadline for the Singularity. Heightened awareness ensures the Singularity happens sooner instead of later. Our goal is to make the Singularity happen by 2045 at the latest. The year 2045 is a safe date, the absolute latest date when the Singularity will happen. We hope 2045 will represent a midpoint in the explosion where the explosion has been ongoing for a number of years, or at least 2045 will represent the latest beginning point when the Singularity will occur. Growing awareness feeds back into the system thereby inspiring greater progress and greater investment in sci-tech, thus awareness grows then explodes. We can change the world.

POST-SCARCITY.

Post-Scarcity is an alternate name for the Singularity; these two concepts are simply different viewpoints of the same event. Post-Scarcity is a more socio-economic view, a more sociological view, because it deals more with sociological ramifications instead of merely focusing on the technology.

Our greatest resource is intelligence, it is the source of all resources but currently intelligence is scarce. From explosive intelligence total freedom (limitless resources) will flow. Technology becomes increasingly efficient, which means we have greater power, resources do more for less, prices reduce.

The Singularity is the point where intelligence ceases to be scarce, it's a technological explosion of intelligence to end all aspects of scarcity.

Post-Scarcity is the point where technology explodes intelligently thereby allowing all needs to be fulfilled. All resources will be limitless due to greater access to resources combined with ultra-efficient usage of available resources, thus everything will be free because the only purpose of money is to regulate scarce resources. Follow Post-Scarcity Aware for more info regarding the PS viewpoint.

TIME FOR SINGULARITY 2045
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