Shared publicly  - 
 
I'm amazed that this equation managed to calculate that 25 billion downloads on the Play store would be on the 25.3th day of the month, which is today! :D Math level=Asian.

If you want to try the equation:
- Downloads predicted at the start of September: https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*47)%5E3.977278527082
- Downloads predicted at the start of October: https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*48)%5E3.977278527082

Play announcement:
http://officialandroid.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/google-play-hits-25-billion-downloads.html

Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnXmW-aXa3bdDhHeHBJUGhZVFZEUS1heW5ZYXdPSnc

-----------------------------------------------
The Maths

Prediction for downloads at beginning of Sept: 23.28bil
Prediction for downloads at beginning of Oct: 25.32bil

25-23.28=1.72bil
Difference between 2 months=2.04bil

(1.72/2.04)*30days=25.3days.

I know it's not a linear increase, but it's close enough.
 
Analysis of the downloads on the Android Market. Any statistical analysis has error, but this should be no more than 10% in mine.

Cumulative Total Download increase is:
(8.6*Month)^3.977278527082

Increase of downloads of a certain month is:
53820.705*(Month^2.05)


My predictions for the Android Market by the end of 2011:
Total Downloads: 11.09 Billion
Downloads in Dec 2011: 1.09 Billion

This should give a reasonable estimate:
https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*x)%5E3.977278527082
62
13
Joseph Lee's profile photoRenaud Lepage's profile photoAlejandro Cafiero's profile photoAbhigyan Banerjee's profile photo
9 comments
Shen Ye
+
2
0
1
0
 
Fuck. The maths tells me I was off by a day....goddamit, not Asian enough.
Shen Ye
+
2
3
2
 
Oh no I wasn't wrong. 25.3 day of the month, that's 25 full days and a bit, which means today! Haha I wasn't wrong!
Shen Ye
+
1
2
1
 
I actually just brute forced it manually until it was intersecting the known data points as much as possible.
 
Very nice! Can this be used to predict total downloads by 2013 or 2015?
 
Needs more pi, all equations need more pi
Add a comment...