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I'm amazed that this equation managed to calculate that 25 billion downloads on the Play store would be on the 25.3th day of the month, which is today! :D Math level=Asian.

If you want to try the equation:
- Downloads predicted at the start of September: https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*47)%5E3.977278527082
- Downloads predicted at the start of October: https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*48)%5E3.977278527082

Play announcement:
http://officialandroid.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/google-play-hits-25-billion-downloads.html

Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnXmW-aXa3bdDhHeHBJUGhZVFZEUS1heW5ZYXdPSnc

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The Maths

Prediction for downloads at beginning of Sept: 23.28bil
Prediction for downloads at beginning of Oct: 25.32bil

25-23.28=1.72bil
Difference between 2 months=2.04bil

(1.72/2.04)*30days=25.3days.

I know it's not a linear increase, but it's close enough.
 
Analysis of the downloads on the Android Market. Any statistical analysis has error, but this should be no more than 10% in mine.

Cumulative Total Download increase is:
(8.6*Month)^3.977278527082

Increase of downloads of a certain month is:
53820.705*(Month^2.05)


My predictions for the Android Market by the end of 2011:
Total Downloads: 11.09 Billion
Downloads in Dec 2011: 1.09 Billion

This should give a reasonable estimate:
https://www.google.com/search?q=(8.6*x)%5E3.977278527082
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9 comments
Shen Ye
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Fuck. The maths tells me I was off by a day....goddamit, not Asian enough.
Shen Ye
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Oh no I wasn't wrong. 25.3 day of the month, that's 25 full days and a bit, which means today! Haha I wasn't wrong!
Shen Ye
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I actually just brute forced it manually until it was intersecting the known data points as much as possible.
 
Needs more pi, all equations need more pi
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