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In some circumstances it is possible to use a pilot test to accurately estimate the errors by making the predictions, not acting on them, and carefully observing what happens. This might be difficult ...
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Do you have a Twitter account? I've discovered your CA blog and would like to follow it if possible. (already added you with G+.
 
Thanks for the follow. Yes, I am on twitter at @scott_dickson
 
You may also want to follow the International Association of Crime Analysts. http://www.iaca.net 

IACA is on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Google+
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