Really, Beca and I are wondering why a song with the subtitle (Banjo Song) doesn't show anyone playing the banjo. Is that synthesized?
(Post #2 - since original post exceeded comment limits)
Please help me run an experiment to test whether the "wisdom of crowds" actually works here on Google+ and see if this community can collectively guess the number of (generic-brand) "Cheerios" in the below glass vase.
The three conditions for a group to be collectively intelligent are diversity, independence, and decentralization. Here are the two steps to run this experiment:
1) Without looking at others' responses (to ensure the independence of our guesses), comment below with your single best guess on how many Cheerios are in the vase. It's one vase, not two; just shown from two different perspectives. Only one guess per person, please.
2) Share this post with your circles to help increase the diversity and decentralization of our guesses.
Individually, the probability of your guessing the right number of Cheerios is really low, of course. But if there truly is wisdom in a crowd, then when the answers of a large number of people are averaged together, it should converge on the right answer. That's the theory, and that's what we're testing here.
I will let this experiment run until 8PM GMT on April 18. At that point, I'll go through each comment, everywhere it's been shared, plus it to mark that it's been recorded as I input its guess into a spreadsheet. I'll calculate the average and look for some other results and then share our collective guess with you in a follow up post to report on just how wise we are - collectively. To make sure you get it, I will post a comment on every place this post is shared, pointing back to these results.
The ten people with the closest guesses will be featured prominently in that follow up post and I'll also highlight the people who shared the post in which those top ten guesses occurred as a way to recognize at least some of you for helping to ensure the diversity and decentralization of our guesses.
Thanks in advance for your help. I can't wait to see the results and share them with you.
Again, the three conditions for a group to be collectively intelligent are diversity, independence, and decentralization. If you're interested in learning more, here's James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds" book on Amazon:
And here's the Wikipedia article on "Wisdom of Crowds":
Edited to note that these are, indeed, not actual "Cheerios" - but a generic brand. Please count the number of "cheerio-like" pieces of cereal. ;-)
- Walking Dead:Road to Survival
The Rebel God: The Problem with Violence and the New Testament (You're t...
The Problem with Violence and the New Testament (You're the Problem). Wednesday, June 03, 2015. This post is part 2 of a series on violence
Europe Crisis Rescue Begins With MIT Men as a Matter of Trust
As financial turmoil in Europe threatened to overwhelm the region’s banks last November, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King arranged confe
Sojourners: Celebrating 40 Years of Faith in Action for Social Justice
Nearly a decade ago, we threw a party on Wall Street where we gave away $10,000 outside the Stock Exchange.
Shocking Footage of Women Abused in the Porn Industry
Shocking Footage of Women Abused in the Porn Industry. By Derek Ouellette | December 12, 2011 - 12:02 am | Porn 2 Comments. There's a vi
Saab: Five things we'll miss | Motoring News | Honest John
Log in | New account. Home; Ask HJ. Ask Honest John; Browse Answers; Browse Topics; Ask A Question. FAQs and Useful Links; Frequently Asked
Confused Americans Attribute Bible Quote to Captain America
A survey conducted on behalf of the American Bible Society found that 63 percent incorrectly believed that a verse found in 2 Corinthians wa
Freakonomics » Cornell Economist Robert Frank Answers Your Questions
HOME; BLOG. Featured Post; Levitt Posts; Dubner Posts; Subscribe to RSS Feed. RADIO. Subscribe at iTunes; Latest Podcast; Podcast Archives.
Most Americans Own a Bible, So Why Aren't They Reading It?
Americans we surveyed think that the Bible has too little influence in U.S. society today. They recognize, as do I, that the influence of th
"Blessed are the Peacemakers" | Ron Paul 2012 Presidential Campaign Comm...
Ron Paul’s deep Christian convictions often go unnoticed because unlike many other politicians, he is reluctant to advertise them. No doubt,