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Robert de Neufville
Works at Good Judgment Project
Attended University of California, Berkeley
Lives in Honolulu, HI
164 followers|35,138 views
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Work
Occupation
Lecturer and Writer
Employment
  • Good Judgment Project
    Forecaster, 2013 - present
  • Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
    Professional Associate, 2013 - present
  • Big Think
    Blogger, 2009 - 2012
  • San Francisco State University
    Lecturer, 2010 - 2011
  • University of California, Berkeley
    Lecturer, 2006 - 2011
  • Booz-Allen & Hamilton
    Consultant, 1993 - 1995
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Honolulu, HI
Previously
Berkeley, CA - Boston, MA - Berlin, Germany - New York, NY - Paris, France - Seoul, Republic of Korea
Story
Tagline
I have always imagined that paradise will be a kind of a library.—Jorge Luis Borges
Introduction
I write about politics and the future of the human race. Other interests include theoretical physics, cognitive science, evolutionary biology, the game of go, and sports analytics. 
Bragging rights
I am a superforecaster.
Education
  • University of California, Berkeley
    Political Science, 1995 - 2008
  • Santa Fe Institute
    Complex Systems, 1998 - 1998
  • Harvard
    Government, 1988 - 1992
Basic Information
Gender
Male

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Robert de Neufville

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Russian satellite failure, Ebola bioweapon research, and the CIA's interest in geoengineering. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute's February news summary.
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The Doomsday Clock, Gorbachev's concerns, and safe-AI research. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute's new summary.
Highly-enriched uranium image courtesy of the US Department of Energy. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the minute hand of its “Doomsday Clock” two minutes closer to midnight. The symbolic clock is now at three minutes to midnight, indicating that the Bulletin believes the “probability of ...
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The Good Judgment Project findings described in the Monkey Cage blog.
Tools from the Good Judgment Project can help improve accuracy in the forecasting of geopolitical events.
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What makes the best forecasters.
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The Marshall Islands lawsuit, the Russian economy, Ebola medicines, and biosafety. Here's the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute news summary for December.
Castle Bravo nuclear test image courtesy of the US Department of Energy. The Marshall Islands presented written arguments to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its case against the world's nuclear powers. The Marshall Islands argued that the nine nuclear powers have flouted their legal ...
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There has never been a nuclear war, but that doesn't mean there never will be one. Great piece on the risk of nuclear war from +Seth Baum.
Several centuries ago in England, the black swan was a popular symbol for the impossible because no such creature had ever been seen. Then came the surprise: Black swans were discovered in Australia. Since then, the bird has symbolized that which seems impossible but can in fact occur. The black swan reminds us that believing something cannot happen is often just a failure of imagination.
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Fighting Ebola, North Korean nuclear weapons research, and the new climate change report.
Mars image courtesy of CDC Global under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license. In October, Ebola spread to the US, Spain, and Mali. The US had its first local case when a Liberian man—who may have lied both to airport officials and to health care workers about his contact with an ...
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Have him in circles
164 people
Michael Breyer's profile photo
Lauren Ashley Bishop's profile photo
Jon cfc's profile photo
Biologi Pedia's profile photo
suresh r's profile photo
Megan Holbrook's profile photo
Maria Konnikova Hamilton's profile photo
Javed Shaik's profile photo
James Barrat's profile photo

Robert de Neufville

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Money lavished on this species could be spent on insects that are really endangered.
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BBC talks to super forecasters. My favorite part is the description of what it was like to attend our conference this year: “It's like that bit at the end of ET, when all the other ETs come and get him. He's not an alien anymore.”
Most intelligence agencies rely on the informed hunches of trained specialists. But there are people from ordinary walks of life who routinely do far better at predicting events than the experts. Tara Isabella Burton meets some of them.
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Carbon emissions reductions, Ebola, nuclear talks, and autonomous weapons systems.
Barack Obama and Xi Jinpingin Beijing, November 12, 2014 image courtesy of The Whitehouse/Pete Souza. The US and China announced a major agreement to reduce carbon emissions. The US agreed to reduce emissions 26-28% from 2005 levels by 2025, while China pledged that its emissions would peak by ...
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It's not that what we don't know, it's that we don't know that we don't know it.
The trouble with ignorance is that it feels so much like expertise. A leading researcher on the psychology of human wrongness sets us straight.
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Robert de Neufville's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
Ono Seafood Takeaway
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October 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The US federal government shut down for 16 days when Congress failed to authorize funds for the 2014 fiscal year. The Centers for Disease Co

Is AI the Defining Issue for Humanity?
medium.com

This article was originally published at Scientific American. Humanity today faces incredible threats and opportunities…

Christopher Columbus was awful (but this other guy was not) - The Oatmeal
theoatmeal.com

A note from the author: All of the information in this essay came from A People's History of the United States, by Howard Zinn, and Lies My

Can the Human Race Survive?
medium.com

The human race’s prospects of survival were considerably better when we were defenceless against tigers than they are to…

September 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report concluded after reviewing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies that there’s a

August 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

California governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for San Francisco County when a large wildfire on the western slopes of the Si

The Sentinel Mission
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

There are no passengers on spaceship Earth. We are all crew.—Marshall McLuhan (1965) Ed Lu wants to save the world. In a talk Thursday at th

July 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

ConceptNet, an artificial intelligence program developed by a team led by Catherine Havasi at the MIT Media Lab, performed as well as an ave

Demonizing Edward Snowden: Which Side Are You On?
www.newyorker.com

I wish Snowden had followed Drake’s example and remained on U.S. soil to fight the charges against him. But I can’t condemn him for seeking

June 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

“Every pandemic emergence seems to be a law unto itself.” David Morens, Jeffrey Taubenberger, and Anthony Fauci wrote in The New England Jou

The End of Scarcity
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

Assuming no important wars and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solut

May 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration reported that for the first time the daily mean atmospheric concentration of carbo

The Sixth Extinction
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

Review of Scatter, Adapt, and Remember by Annalee Newitz Life on this earth has often been disturbed by terrible events. Countless living be

America's Disappearing Workforce | Politeia | Big Think
bigthink.com

Where did America’s workers go? The future of the American economy may hinge on the answer. The US economy added 165,000 new jobs in April a

Ignorance is freedom
www.economist.com

Authoritative weekly newspaper focusing on international politics and business news and opinion.

Nitrogen fertilizer is bad stuff -- and not just because it could blow u...
grist.org

When a massive fertilizer stockpile blew a hole in a small Texas town last week, it should have made us wonder: Why do we need this stuff in

April 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

So far 115 people have been diagnosed with a strain of bird flu known as H7N9 that was previously unknown in humans. Twenty-three of the peo

How America's Wealth Vanished | Politeia | Big Think
bigthink.com

Americans aren't worth as much as they used to be. Last week, the Federal Reserve survey of consumer finances found that the net worth of U.

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls
www.realclearpolitics.com

RCP Mobile · White House · President Obama's Budget Puts 2012 Deficit at $1.33 Trillion · Obama Tweaks Contraception Rule · White House

The best Thai food I know of in the Bay Area. I can't really eat in any of the other places I used to go because Sabuy Sabuy has spoiled me. The staff is super nice too. Everything is good, but it's worth trying something you wouldn't be able to get somewhere else. My particular favorites are the catfish curry and the special duck—then for desert the fantastic coconut ice cream!
Food: ExcellentDecor: GoodService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
There is such wide variety of great pizza in the Bay Area. But Emilia's Pizza could be the best of them all. It has the most perfect, light and chewy crust of any pizza I have ever had. The toppings are light and exquisitely delicious. Because it's a small place you have to order in advance and there's not much room to sit, so we always take out. But the pizza is so extraordinarily good it's well worth planning ahead for. I recommend the sopressata pizza.
Food: ExcellentDecor: GoodService: Very Good
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
My experience with American Auto Upholstery was extremely good. Joe was knowledgeable, conscientious, and a pleasure to do business with. And when there was a minor problem with the work, he made sure to make things right. I would absolutely recommend them again.
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
5 reviews
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My favorite restaurant. This is where I come when I really need a good meal. The pizza is fantastic. Actually, everything is fantastic. The wines are always good, and they make great cocktails. It's all real food-lovers food, but without any pretension. It was recently remodeled, and it's a great atmosphere. We're not the only ones who know how good it is, so it can be pretty crowded on busy nights. But the wonderful staff always goes out of their way to take care of us.
Food: ExcellentDecor: ExcellentService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
There are a lot of good places to get coffee and tea in the East Bay, but Highwire is my favorite. The people who work at Highwire are great and they're serious about coffee and tea. If you like a good cup, this is the place to come. I go out of my way to go to Highwire—it's just that good.
Food: ExcellentDecor: Very GoodService: Excellent
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago