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Robert de Neufville
Works at Good Judgment Project
Attended University of California, Berkeley
Lives in Honolulu, HI
178 followers|36,523 views
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Work
Occupation
Lecturer and Writer
Employment
  • Good Judgment Project
    Forecaster, 2013 - present
  • Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
    Professional Associate, 2013 - present
  • Big Think
    Blogger, 2009 - 2012
  • San Francisco State University
    Lecturer, 2010 - 2011
  • University of California, Berkeley
    Lecturer, 2006 - 2011
  • Booz-Allen & Hamilton
    Consultant, 1993 - 1995
Places
Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Honolulu, HI
Previously
Berkeley, CA - Boston, MA - Berlin, Germany - New York, NY - Paris, France - Seoul, Republic of Korea
Story
Tagline
I have always imagined that paradise will be a kind of a library.—Jorge Luis Borges
Introduction
I write about politics and the future of the human race. Other interests include theoretical physics, cognitive science, evolutionary biology, the game of go, and sports analytics. 
Bragging rights
I am a superforecaster.
Education
  • University of California, Berkeley
    Political Science, 1995 - 2008
  • Santa Fe Institute
    Complex Systems, 1998 - 1998
  • Harvard
    Government, 1988 - 1992
Basic Information
Gender
Male

Stream

Robert de Neufville

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Definitely worth thinking about.
The search for extraterrestrial life is seen as one of pure curiosity. But, as in other areas of science, we should worry about the consequences of success.
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Robert de Neufville

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This seems like a serious problem for Republicans: Pew find that the party's net favorability is -28%.
Survey Report The Republican Party’s image has grown more negative over the first half of this year. Currently, 32% have a favorable impression of the
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Robert de Neufville

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Everyone stop partying.
The world supply of helium, which is essential in research and medicine, is being squandered, say scientists
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Robert de Neufville

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The Pope's encyclical, predicting solar storms, pandemic readiness, and more.
Solar flare image courtesy of NASA/SDO under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license (image has been cropped). Pope Francis issued an encyclical saying the natural environment is “the patrimony of all humanity” and calling for a “new dialogue about how we are shaping the future of our ...
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The Non-Proliferation Review Conference, the danger of killer robots, and how to recover from a catastrophe.
US Secretary of State John Kerry addressing the Non-Proliferation Review Conference image courtesy of the US State Department. Angela Kane, the UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, warned that the nuclear powers' lack of meaningful progress toward disarmament could undermine the ...
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It took a lot of fossil fuels to forge our industrial world. Now they're almost gone. Could we do it again without them?
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Have him in circles
178 people
Trevor White's profile photo
Kimberly Armstrong's profile photo
Lauren Ashley Bishop's profile photo
Sahar Perske's profile photo
Aaron Williams's profile photo
Charlie Reece's profile photo
Brian Epstein's profile photo
Tony Hood's profile photo
Brenna Cypher's profile photo

Robert de Neufville

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+Seth Baum and +Trevor White on the emerging problem of how to regulate artificial intelligence.
Seth Baum and Trevor White: A recent robot-related death in Germany highlights broader dilemmas in the design of safe autonomous systems.
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Robert de Neufville

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This raises questions about Mr. Bush's grasp of economics.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush on Wednesday proposed a blunt solution for economic troubles: “People should work longer hours,” drawing negative reactions from critics who suggested the last thing Americans need is to work more. The GOP presidential contender made his suggestion during an interview with the conservative New Hampshire newspaper,...
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A growing chorus of analysts and policymakers are sounding the alarm. Will the world hear them in time?
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China's new MIRVs,  rising sea levels, the debate over "killer robots", and more.
MQ-1 Predator unmanned aircraft image courtesy of the US Air Force/Lt. Col. Leslie Pratt. China has converted some of its long-range missiles to carry multiple warheads. China's decision to retrofit its missiles with “multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles” (MIRVs) appears to be at ...
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Great profile of the existential risk community (including the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, which I'm affiliated with).
More research has been done on dung beetles and Star Trek than human extinction. These people want to change that.
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The P5+1 reaches a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Ebola outbreak shows signs of coming under control, and carbon emissions may be decoupling from economic growth. The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute's news summary is full of positive news this month!
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Lausanne image courtesy of the US State Department. Iran and the P5+1 countries—the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany—worked past a March 31 deadline to reach a ...
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Robert de Neufville's +1's are the things they like, agree with, or want to recommend.
Ono Seafood Takeaway
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October 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The US federal government shut down for 16 days when Congress failed to authorize funds for the 2014 fiscal year. The Centers for Disease Co

Is AI the Defining Issue for Humanity?
medium.com

This article was originally published at Scientific American. Humanity today faces incredible threats and opportunities…

Christopher Columbus was awful (but this other guy was not) - The Oatmeal
theoatmeal.com

A note from the author: All of the information in this essay came from A People's History of the United States, by Howard Zinn, and Lies My

Can the Human Race Survive?
medium.com

The human race’s prospects of survival were considerably better when we were defenceless against tigers than they are to…

September 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report concluded after reviewing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies that there’s a

August 2013 News
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California governor Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for San Francisco County when a large wildfire on the western slopes of the Si

The Sentinel Mission
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There are no passengers on spaceship Earth. We are all crew.—Marshall McLuhan (1965) Ed Lu wants to save the world. In a talk Thursday at th

July 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

ConceptNet, an artificial intelligence program developed by a team led by Catherine Havasi at the MIT Media Lab, performed as well as an ave

Demonizing Edward Snowden: Which Side Are You On?
www.newyorker.com

I wish Snowden had followed Drake’s example and remained on U.S. soil to fight the charges against him. But I can’t condemn him for seeking

June 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

“Every pandemic emergence seems to be a law unto itself.” David Morens, Jeffrey Taubenberger, and Anthony Fauci wrote in The New England Jou

The End of Scarcity
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Assuming no important wars and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solut

May 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration reported that for the first time the daily mean atmospheric concentration of carbo

The Sixth Extinction
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

Review of Scatter, Adapt, and Remember by Annalee Newitz Life on this earth has often been disturbed by terrible events. Countless living be

America's Disappearing Workforce | Politeia | Big Think
bigthink.com

Where did America’s workers go? The future of the American economy may hinge on the answer. The US economy added 165,000 new jobs in April a

Ignorance is freedom
www.economist.com

Authoritative weekly newspaper focusing on international politics and business news and opinion.

Nitrogen fertilizer is bad stuff -- and not just because it could blow u...
grist.org

When a massive fertilizer stockpile blew a hole in a small Texas town last week, it should have made us wonder: Why do we need this stuff in

April 2013 News
anthropoceneblog.wordpress.com

So far 115 people have been diagnosed with a strain of bird flu known as H7N9 that was previously unknown in humans. Twenty-three of the peo

How America's Wealth Vanished | Politeia | Big Think
bigthink.com

Americans aren't worth as much as they used to be. Last week, the Federal Reserve survey of consumer finances found that the net worth of U.

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls
www.realclearpolitics.com

RCP Mobile · White House · President Obama's Budget Puts 2012 Deficit at $1.33 Trillion · Obama Tweaks Contraception Rule · White House

The best Thai food I know of in the Bay Area. I can't really eat in any of the other places I used to go because Sabuy Sabuy has spoiled me. The staff is super nice too. Everything is good, but it's worth trying something you wouldn't be able to get somewhere else. My particular favorites are the catfish curry and the special duck—then for desert the fantastic coconut ice cream!
Food: ExcellentDecor: GoodService: Excellent
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago
There is such wide variety of great pizza in the Bay Area. But Emilia's Pizza could be the best of them all. It has the most perfect, light and chewy crust of any pizza I have ever had. The toppings are light and exquisitely delicious. Because it's a small place you have to order in advance and there's not much room to sit, so we always take out. But the pizza is so extraordinarily good it's well worth planning ahead for. I recommend the sopressata pizza.
Food: ExcellentDecor: GoodService: Very Good
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago
My experience with American Auto Upholstery was extremely good. Joe was knowledgeable, conscientious, and a pleasure to do business with. And when there was a minor problem with the work, he made sure to make things right. I would absolutely recommend them again.
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago
5 reviews
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My favorite restaurant. This is where I come when I really need a good meal. The pizza is fantastic. Actually, everything is fantastic. The wines are always good, and they make great cocktails. It's all real food-lovers food, but without any pretension. It was recently remodeled, and it's a great atmosphere. We're not the only ones who know how good it is, so it can be pretty crowded on busy nights. But the wonderful staff always goes out of their way to take care of us.
Food: ExcellentDecor: ExcellentService: Excellent
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago
There are a lot of good places to get coffee and tea in the East Bay, but Highwire is my favorite. The people who work at Highwire are great and they're serious about coffee and tea. If you like a good cup, this is the place to come. I go out of my way to go to Highwire—it's just that good.
Food: ExcellentDecor: Very GoodService: Excellent
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago