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Robert de Neufville
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I have always imagined that paradise will be a kind of a library.—Jorge Luis Borges
I have always imagined that paradise will be a kind of a library.—Jorge Luis Borges

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The officer who refused to fire nuclear missiles at the Soviet Union, the Able Archer exercises, and another global coral bleaching event

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Scary but unfortunately plausible story.

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My take on +Philip Tetlock and +Dan Gardner's excellent new book on forecasting. 

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This is probably a natural phenomenon. Probably, but not definitely.

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New national emissions commitments, Exxon, germline editing, space weather, and the Svalbard seed bank.

Another great review of +Philip Tetlock and +Dan Gardner's Superforecasting.

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The WSJ review of +Philip Tetlock and +Dan Gardner's Superforecasting calls it "the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.”

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Great review of +Philip Tetlock  and +Dan Gardner's new book Superforecasting.
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