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Philip Klapwijk Precious Metals
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Precious metals consulting, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, consultants, consultancy
Precious metals consulting, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, consultants, consultancy

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19-20th October 2016 121 Mining Investment Hong Kong
http://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-hk/
Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director, Precious Metals Insights will participate in the precious metals debate: "Where next for gold and precious metals equities in an uncertain world?" on Thursday 20 October. 10:10
• Price drivers in 2016/17 - Currencies, interest rates and geopolitics
• Impact of the election on US fiscal and monetary policy and what this means for gold
• China’s gold buying and future plans for the metal
• How should mining companies be valued relative to the gold price in this market environment?
• Silver and PGMs: How are the other precious metals faring?
Panelists include:
Andrew Ballingal, Director, Ballingal Investment Advisors
Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director, Precious Metals Insights
John Deniz, MD, Paragon Funds Management
Amanda Van Dyke, Fund Manager, Peterhouse Asset Management
121 Mining Investment Hong Kong 2016 is a conference where leading institutional investors and industry analysts will meet with 40 mining production, development and exploration companies to discuss the outlook for mining finance and investment.
Join us in China's international gateway city to enjoy two intensive days of 1-2-1 meetings, company presentations and investor-led panel discussions.
Mining corporates – Present project updates and meet with leading experts from Asia’s mining and investment community.
Mining investment and finance experts – Share insights with your peers and receive project updates from the management teams of mining production, development and exploration companies gathered together in a convenient central Hong Kong location - Passes for institutional investors are free.
With limited space available, register now for this exclusive event.
121 Mining Investment Hong Kong is part of a highly successful global series, with events held in London, Cape Town and Hong Kong
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"Examining Market Sentiment Towards Gold"
Philip Klapwijk - Managing Director, Precious Metals Insights Limited
10th China Gold & Precious Metals Summit 2015
Shanghai, 10th December 2015
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/s31mSQDiSHTvIg
http://www.preciousmetalsinsights.com/
Email: info@preciousmetalsinsights.com
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10th China Gold & Precious Metals Summit 2015 "Examining Market Sentiment Towards Gold"
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LBMA 2016 Price Forecast - Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights 
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LBMA 2016 Price Forecast - Philip Klapwijk, Precious Metals Insights
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Philip Klapwijk - Precious Metals Insights, Hong Kong - LBMA Forecast for 2016.

Au
Range:
$958 - $1,147
Average:
$1,043

The gold price will fall further this year due to tighter  monetary policy in the US, a further rise in the dollar  and unsupportive supply/demand fundamentals.  While it is true that the Federal Reserve will be  cautious in raising rates, it would appear that the  market is now too sanguine regarding the number  of increases likely in calendar 2016 (just two on  average compared to the Fed’s latest consensus  view of four). Higher US interest rates will favour  the dollar, which will also benefit from secular  weakness in the euro and most EM currencies,  including the renminbi. Furthermore, in terms of  gold’s supply/demand fundamentals, the outlook  is not price-supportive. The market is likely to  remain well supplied, with mine production holding  up due to new projects still coming on stream and  cost reductions at existing operations, while scope  for further reductions in scrap supply are limited. Jewellery demand is set to recover this year but only  to a limited extent, in no small measure due to only  modest consumption gains forecast for India and  China. Critically, the price ‘floor’ supported by Asian  physical demand in the form of jewellery and small  bars is again set to move lower. At the same time,  very limited institutional investor gold demand and,  perhaps also, reduced net central bank purchases  of bullion will require yet lower dollar gold prices for  the market to clear.

Pt
Range:
$772 - $948
Average:
$828

Platinum prices are unlikely to recover materially  unless either gold returns to a bull-market  (unlikely before 2017) or mine production is cut  substantially (much talk but little action) or diesel  cars recover their appeal (a hard sell to both  European consumers and governments). Rand  devaluation and the (much larger) slump in oil  prices have given the South African producers some  breathing space. In addition, local political factors  are an obstacle to any rapid, large-scale cuts to  uneconomic operations. Talk of the ‘death of diesel’  is overblown, but diesel’s share of the European  market is expected to slide due to greater concern  over particulate emissions and a shift away from  diesel towards fuel-efficient petrol engines. In the  meantime, in spite of lower prices, global platinum  jewellery demand is expected to remain becalmed  due to relatively little scope for growth this year in  the dominant Chinese market. Overall, the platinum  market is likely therefore to be in rough ‘balance’  this year in terms of supply and fabrication demand.  This might be considered a condition favouring  some upside for the price if it were not for the likely  slide in gold prices and the fact that investors are  expected to remain negative towards platinum  during 2016.
Ag
Range:
$11.96 - $14.89
Average:
$13.19

A further slide in prices is expected in 2016, with silver  tending (as is typically the case) to ‘outperform’ gold  to the downside. Besides facing similar economic and  financial headwinds this year (particularly the stronger  US dollar and soft commodity prices), the white  metal will additionally have to contend with lacklustre  industrial demand (in part due to the slowdown in  Chinese capital investment and construction) and  relatively ‘sticky’ supply from mine production and  recycling. In addition, it is debatable whether the  underlying level of physical demand from India,  investors in bullion products and ETF holders will be  as supportive this year as these were in 2015. More  likely, lower silver prices will be required to stimulate a  continued high level of Indian imports and bullion coin  sales, particularly in light of the huge demand seen  from both sources last year. Against this, it is probable  that outflows from silver ETFs will increase as silver  makes new lows for the bear market to date.
Pd
Range:
$442 - $605
Average:
$492

From a low starting point, palladium is expected  to outperform its peers among the major precious  metals. Currently, the price is discounting a more  negative outcome for the global economy and  auto demand than would seem justified, in large  part due to bad news from China. Specifically  regarding China, while car sales growth has slowed  (to 7% last year), the base is much higher (21.1m  vehicles). Moreover, combating pollution is a  priority and emission controls are becoming tighter.  US auto sales also reached a record level last year  (17.5m units) and the consensus is that in 2016  there should be a further (albeit smaller) increase  in sales. Indeed, global autocatalyst demand  is forecast to increase in 2016 and underpin  an increase in overall palladium fabrication  demand. This will only partly be offset by a small  rise in supply (due to higher recycling) such that  palladium will remain in a substantial fundamental  ‘deficit’. In the short run, this can be swamped  by investor selling (as seen recently), but as such  investors’ sales ease some rebound in palladium  prices is probable basis ‘stronger hands’ holding  remaining bullion stocks and the metal’s healthy  supply/demand fundamentals.

Philip Klapwijk managing director of PMI Precious Metals Insights Ltd Gold, silver, platinum and palladium consultants Hong Kong. Email: info@preciousmetalsinsights.com

Website: www.preciousmetalsinsights.com
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFLmwN_6pZk

Sentiment toward metals, particularly gold, seems to be bearish these days and an LBMA six-time forecasting winner says he expects the price to trend lower in 2016. Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultancy Precious Metals Insights, said he expects gold prices to trend ‘well below $1,100’ an ounce. ‘I think gold at the moment is looking very ‘toppy,’’ he told Kitco News at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference in Vienna, Austria. However, despite the somewhat bearish call, he said he doesn’t expect the metal to trade at sub-$1,000 levels for too long. ‘That does not mean we can’t get a spike below but I don’t think we’re going to trade for any extensive period below that level,’ he noted. In 2014, the LBMA awarded Klapwijk with the top forecasting title for platinum, which he said should continue to suffer post the Volkswagen scandal. ‘The reason for that is the very high market share of diesel in Europe and the damage, I think, will be done somewhat permanently to diesel’s image in Europe,’ he explained. Comex December gold futures were last quoted $4.50 higher at $1,177.30 an ounce, while Nymex January platinum futures rose $7.80 to $1,022.40. Kitco News, October 20, 2015.

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