I don't. I don't know anybody else that does.
So this referendum result will be based purely on reportage, personalities and political loyalty.
I can't vote, as despite extensive research, I can't find convincing evidence either way. Lots of emotive arguments, sure, but this isn't about "feelings".
Economists and technocrats should decide, really. Not me - I'm not qualified. And not politicians - their eyes are on their careers.
Like many you are confusing this vote on the next Conservative Party Leadership Team with something to do with Europe and the EU. An easy mistake to make, to be fair.
There is only ONE politician on the "Boris/Gove" (sometimes misleadingly referred to as "Leave") side of the argument who is credibly honest, and that is Vladimir Putin. He is completely honest about wanting the UK to leave the EU as he sees nothing but benefit in that. We are the only country in ALL of the Big Clubs (EU, G7, Nato, Commonwealth, permanent UN Security Council member) and he'd just love to see the end of that. Trump also thinks we should leave, but I only mention that because if one ever finds oneself on the same side of an argument as Trump then it should really cause a bit of a rethink.
If you are undecided, then logically you should vote to stay, because we could at any point in the future decide to leave if that turns out to be the wrong choice. But if we leave... well, if that turned out to be wrong, we would only be able to rejoin by accepting being part of all the things that we currently do not have to be part of: Schengen Area, Euro Area, and forget the rebate ("ROFLMAOQWERTY" as our current EU colleagues would no doubt say if we tried to get that back).
The balance of risk is clear. The mitigation is to remain. Unless you really think that 90% of reputable economists are wrong, that the EU would not be punitive in its post-exit treatment of us (pour décourager les autres, quite literally), and that Gove, Boris, Putin, and Trump are all correct, and that you are cool with a second Scottish Referendum with an almost inevitable breakup of the UK.
Usually there is a "none of the above" option on a ballot - even if you have to spoil your paper to indicate this. But in this specific instance there really isn't; a heads/tails call rarely ends in "edge" in the real world. If you don't vote one way or the other then you abdicate moral authority to complain about the result. Ever.
So in my mind, unless the Boris camp make a watertight case (which they do not), there is only one low risk choice that can be made.
Question: what is your Risk Appetite on this one? ;-)
Most sensible promise I ever made, and the easiest to keep.
"Keeping children home, even for a day is harmful to their education."
I kept my children at home, full-time, for well over a decade, and their projected iGCSE results are extremely promising.
I'm guessing even school-educated children could survive a day (or two, or seven, or even 600) away from school without turning into utter failures.
My benchmark is the cost of my own latest cool website (https://www.trustedsecurityadvisersregister.com), which cost roughly 7 days' effort x 2 reasonably-clever people. Hosting roughly £30 per month.
By this comparison, the EU website must be absolutely incredibly awesome, but Google can't find it for me...
- University of PortsmouthBSc (Hons) Computer Science, 1991 - 1995
- Rhye Internet Solutions LimitedTechnical Director, 1997 - present
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Admitted he could not remember where they came from.
Doc Searls Weblog · We’re all going to need clothes
Holding forth on stuff since 1998
The American Scholar: Solitude and Leadership - William Deresiewicz
If you want others to follow, learn to be alone with your thoughts