Trump Widens Leads
New Fox News polls out tonight shows Donald Trump pulling away from Hillary Clinton in 3 key battleground states, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.
In Nevada, Trump now has a 3-point lead over Clinton, 43-40 in a 3-way race, with 8 for Johnson and 9% undecided. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot in Nevada.
When the race is reduced to a 2-way race, Trump gains a point and leads by a 46 to 42 margin. This is important because as the race nears the end, the supposition is that the third-party candidates will not do as well as their current polling, so the question is who will gain from that. So far, all indications are that Trump benefits.
Our first prediction for the Nov. 8 outcome in Nevada? Trump 50%, Clinton 45% and Johnson 5%. If Johnson slides lower than this, Trump will get the vast majority of those abandoning him.
In North Carolina, Trump has bounded upwards and now leads Clinton by a 45 to 40 margin.
Whites back Trump by a whopping 58-27 margin. Blacks support Clinton by a super whopping 85-3% margin, but blacks make up only 30% of voters.
Stein also is not on the North Carolina ballot. Johnson has 6% with 9% undecided. Best guess is that in the end, Trump will pick off 2 from Johnson and Clinton 1 – and that’s generous. Also being generous to Clinton, Trump takes 6 of the undecided 9%.
So our first prediction on the final count in North Carolina is Trump 53, Clinton 44, Johnson 3.
In Ohio, Trump now leads by an impressive 5 points – 42 to 37 with Johnson getting 6 and Stein 2, with a whopping 13% undecided.
The big news is that Clinton is now leading among women by only 3% and declining. Obama won Ohio’s women by 11% in 2012.
Considering the coal issue and the jobs issues, I’m giving Trump 8% of the undecided, Clinton 3 and Johnson 2, but then Johnson loses another 2 to don’t waste your vote fears.
So, our prediction in the end the final vote for Ohio – not counting voting machine fraud – is Trump 51, Clinton 41, Johnson 6 and Stein 2. A 10-point victory in US presidential politics is officially called a landslide.