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Pascal “Le Bakala” Gienger
Works at Google
Attended Universität Konstanz
Lives in Winterthur
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More surveillance has no effect on terrorism and security, because scanning for something very rare gives you more false positives and incertitude - and has no positive effect on preventing bad guys.

Excellent writeup from +Kristian Köhntopp​ .

Sadly neither politicians nor "Hey we are frightened, please protect us! We have nothing to hide! Do surveillance!!!"-voters understand maths and statistics base knowledge.
 
Base Rate Fallacy vs. Population of Germany

There are 80 Million people living in Germany. The article in http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/islamisten-in-deutschland-wie-bedroht-ist-die-innere-sicherheit-a-1011912.html claims that 230 of them are in a file for radical islamists. Let's assume they are all actual evil people instead of suspects that may or may not be actually dangerous.

That's 230 out of 80,000,000 people, or a base rate of 0.00028%.

Let us assume we can check for terrorists with a special scanner. In a pro mille of all cases, 0.1%, the scanner will flag a good citizen erroneously as a terrorist. This leaves us with 80,000 upstanding citizens as false suspects.

In a pro mille of all cases, 0.1%, the scanner will also flag an actual terrorist as a law abiding citizen. This leaves us with zero undetected terrorists. That is, the scanner will actually catch all real terrorists, and in total we will have 80224 suspects.

That is, 224*100/80224 = 0.27% of our suspects will be actual terrorists, and 99.72% of our suspects will be actual law abiding citizens.

Let's improve the test 100 times, so the error rate is one pro mille of a percent, or one in 100,000.

Now we have 1024 suspects, out of which 224 (22%) will be terrorists, and 800 people, 78%, will be actual good citizens - 4 in 5 suspects will still be innocent.

TL;DR: If you are scanning for something rare you are fucked. You will have all of the targets in your suspect list and still are none the wiser until after the explosions, even if you have tools of impossible precision.
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Manuel S. Lara Bisch's profile photo
 
I wish a grounding in such statistics and spotting logical fallacies could be made a central part of compulsory education … I suspect that no politician in office today would approve such a curriculum though.
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German "Conservatives" in action. Without logic, but hey who needs logic when someone can be Republican Conservative!

Petr Bystron (head of the Bavarian Tea Party AfD) claims that there was "the time now to discuss how to send all those migrants back to their home countries. We need rather reinforced deportations than futile integration efforts."

He came 1986 to Germany as asylum seeker because of "political problems" - he has been a refugee. Did he buy a ticket to deport himself from Germany as a good example?

The only "trick" why this does not seem to be a contradiction to those nasty and annoying party members and voters seems to be that Petr is WHITE and CHRISTIAN. This is my only explanation that this message works. He tries to establish the message "We must deport muslim and black immigrants rapidly" in his voters' heads. Which is disgusting.

#AfD #Bystron #Refugees #Germany
 
Lieber Petr,
na klar können wir darüber diskutieren. Fangen wir der Einfachheit halber doch bei Dir an:
"Bystron wuchs in der Tschechoslowakei auf. 1987, als er 16 Jahre alt war, flohen seine Eltern mit ihm nach Deutschland und beantragten politisches Asyl." (Wikipedia)
Wenns Dir also um eine "verstärkte Rückführung statt aussichtsloser Integrationsbemühungen" geht, führ Dich einfach selber rück.

Lorenz Meyer
Vorsitzender Guru

Quelle bzw. weiterführende Links:
Post der "Junge Alternative Bayern": http://bit.ly/2ajXZxC Wikipedia-Eintrag Petr Bystron: http://bit.ly/2a8ji30
Routenplaner (für Petr): https://maps.google.de/
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Alexander Stickler's profile photo
 
Was für ein Arsch. So wie die xenophoben Herkunftsleugner mit Migrationshintergrund bei der SVP...
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Mbongo sauce, fried planters bananas, pig ears.

Sauce Mbongo, banane planteur, oreilles de porc.

#Afrique #Africa
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James Lamb's profile photoPascal “Le Bakala” Gienger's profile photoPatrick Koetter's profile photo
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+Pascal Gienger Looks extremely deicious. Well done!
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And now this brainfuck rebegins. The victims have not yet been given funeral service but the German interior minister already blames computer games to be the culprit for the gun rampage in Munich.

The news media also did one of the worst jobs. As if they wanted to make a terrorist attack out of this.
Nobody explained that a "German Iranian" is often German and carries Iranian citizenship because the country does not let people renounce it.
Second, basic knowledge about Islam would be sufficient to know that Iranians are mainly Shias whereas Daesh are Sunni.
Third, No one looked at the calendar to see that the Breivik rampage has happened exactly five years ago.
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Thomas Pfeiffer's profile photoPascal “Le Bakala” Gienger's profile photoVirginia Wolf's profile photo
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+Pascal Gienger
Vous racontez n'importe quoi. Rien à voir avec les contes mielleux de Disney. Je ne dénonce que ceux où la violence extrême est montrée à outrance, glorifiée, sans aucune retenue.
Combien d'enfants regardent ou jouent avec la violence sans aucun contrôle parental, sans aucune explication entre le bien et le mal. Pire encore, leurs parents montrent l’engouement pour cette violence auprès de leurs enfants. Trouvez-vous cela normal et acceptable?
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#now

Aziz, light!
So Green!

Regional code anno 1997: "Available for sale in North America only" ;-)
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Daniel Carollo's profile photoPascal “Le Bakala” Gienger's profile photoSteve Holst's profile photoDarren Tucker's profile photo
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"Anyone else want to negotiate?"
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One of the numerous examples that the separation between church/religion and state will never happen in Germany (same situation as in Switzerland and Austria).

They are really discussing about putting "God" into the constitution of the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. sigh
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Der Kieler Landtag muss über einen Gottesbezug in der Landesverfassung entscheiden. Die Abgeordneten tun sich schwer: Der Glaubensschwund macht das Verhältnis von Staat und Religion hoch kompliziert.
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Pascal “Le Bakala” Gienger's profile photoThomas Pfeiffer's profile photoStefan Momma's profile photo
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the vote was negative. not by a comfortable margin, though. 
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Moments in Switzerland.

I was just asked to take some pictures of a couple which obviously adopted two children. They had fun with their bikes (they were on a bike tour which brought them through Winterthur). And the kids just laughed and smiled when being taken on a picture with their parents.

Upon asked, the man stated that he had to marry his wife in order for the adoption to be approved by the authorities (it is the only allowed constellation for adoptions to be approved in Switzerland).

Which brought me immediately back to the facts in Switzerland sigh.

#family #Switzerland #Diversity
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Thomas Pfeiffer's profile photoMykola Dzham's profile photo
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When some person is truing to justify overly strict adoption rules by kids care I just ask this person "have you ever been in Orphanage?"
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African funk from Abidjan, Ivory Coast 1972-1982. On record.
And yes, a room in a house without a record player and stereo is incomplete.
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Ears and tails of pigs (porc).
Preparing an African dish.

Oreilles et queues de cochon. Ça donnera un repas à l'Africaine.
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Alexander Stickler's profile photoPascal “Le Bakala” Gienger's profile photo
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#1 immigrant group in the UK. Fastest growing immigrant groups in the UK: India.
This is fine to me - but it is another example that the lies and horror stories about immigration to the UK from the EU had nothing to do with reality.

I did not know that Polish people is now the #1 immigrant groups in Germany. This is great to me - two former enemies mix.

Great immigration graphics from Jakub Marian.

#immigration #eu #brexit #brexitlies
What is the most common country of origin for immigrants to the UK?
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Virginia Wolf's profile photoPereira Braga's profile photo
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Nice that Switzerland is the country in Europe with highest percentage of Foreign-born. 😁
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I did not know that HiFI/stereo sets were not affordable by most people in Japan in the mid 1960ies.

A Japanese collected many of those ubiquitous cheap plastic record players of that time. Very interesting collection.

(In Germany those plastic sets existed as well, e.g. the Telefunken "Party Hit" - most of them beared the problem that their piezo crystal-based pickup needed a quite high weight/pressure (wearing out the record rapidly) and the crystal just dissolved itself over the year due to humidity (like salt)).
 
An Exhibition of Japanese Portable Record Players
The 1960s ushered in the golden age of record players as affordability made them a staple in almost every household. In Japan however, quality stereo sets remained unattainable for most, who then gravitated to a smaller, more affordable gadget: the portable record player. The devices
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James Lamb's profile photo
 
Maybe the notion was that 45's were basically disposable. I seem to recall even a cereal box or something had a record embedded on the back as a promo?

https://goo.gl/images/bVG3EC
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Old, but as I am (also) a German citizen, this graphic nails it.

"
Things which ruined Germany in the last 116 years:

Brown - Nationalism
Yellow - Immigration
"
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Pascal's Collections
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Have him in circles
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Work
Employment
  • Google
    present
  • Universität Konstanz
    2008 - 2012
  • Pascal Gienger
    IT Security Consultant, 2001 - 2012
  • SüdConsult GmbH
    Business IT Consultant, 1999 - 2008
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Map of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has livedMap of the places this user has lived
Currently
Winterthur
Previously
Hoboken, NJ - Mons - Konstanz - Abidjan - Niababri - Bambili - Yaoundé - Mannheim - Angers - Trossingen
Story
Tagline
أهلا وسهلا Welcome Bienvenue
Introduction
Cameroon/Ivory Coast/Senegal Africa enthusiast.

The opinions presented here are my own personal opinions and not necessarily those of my employer.

I like public transit infrastructure and how these systems work.

Bragging rights
My Mum and my Dad gave me life.
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  • Universität Konstanz
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Public - 8 months ago
reviewed 8 months ago
Public - 8 months ago
reviewed 8 months ago
Schnelle Terminvergabe und sehr höflicher Empfang. Sehr kurze Wartezeiten bei Röntgen, modernes digitales Röntgengerät. Hatte einen sehr freundlichen Arzt zugeteilt bekommen.
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago
Angenehme Schulungsatmosphäre Ruhig gelegen
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reviewed 3 years ago
6 reviews
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Public - 8 months ago
reviewed 8 months ago
The new "VIP" service includes a decent travel bus with very good seating and a very responsible driver. A small snack and lemonade is included.
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago