I'm depreeeeeessedddd

The more I read, the more I realize our civilization is CRAZY, and we are ALL in denial because there is NO solution and we are ALL part of the problem.

I could shower you with links, but damn, google it yourself, okay.

Care for a long read ?

-> Summary before the long story : Before 2050, maybe before 2040, the TOTAL OFFER OF EVERYTHING, since EVERYTHING is based on energy, will SHRINK. And will shrink more and more, year after year.
Apart from the sun above the crops, EVERYTHING is based on consuming energy, or investing energy to produce things. Your food. Your clothes. Your car. Your books. Your computer. Your house's walls, lighting, heating. And this available energy for human spending, its total amount on Earth, is going to shrink more and more. Less and less of everything. This is real. This is the real shit.

And this is no sci-fi or conspirationist madness.

The long story, now ?

(1) - Hydrocarbons : the HYPER BEST we can hope for is a plateau until 2025-2030 followed by a steady and fast fall. Example : all the hype in America about new resources amounts in total and in the best case for 5 years of their consumption, you can't do much better worldwide with best hopes. There is no hidden miracle to come.

(2) - Metallic resources : several metals will have PASSED their peak by the end of the century, some of them before 2050, damn, some of them before 2025. That also means EASY to mine areas don't exist anymore for several materials, mining now relies on extremely well-trained and experienced mining with lots of energy.

(3) - On the rest of the energy production area : let's discard all environmental tolls and sense of realism, and imagine we multiply coal and nuclear energy production by 5, hydroelectric energy production by 2, and renewables by a wholesome 25 times factor (while it is considered that large-scale energy shifts take 60 years, remember my mention about realism). In that scenario, it wouldn't be enough to make up for the shrinking in oil production and the follow-up fall in gas and coal production.

CONCLUSION : I'll repeat the conclusion : before 2050, maybe before 2040, the TOTAL OFFER OF EVERYTHING, since EVERYTHING is based on energy, will SHRINK. And will shrink more and more, year after year.
Apart from the sun above the crops, EVERYTHING is based on consuming energy, or investing energy to produce things. Your food. Your clothes. Your car. Your books. Your computer. Your house's walls, lighting, heating. And this available energy for human spending, its total amount on Earth, is going to shrink more and more. Less and less of everything. This is real. This is the real shit.

(4) - More trouble ?
. Less and less energy, even though the demography will bring billions more humans on Earth. And those humans will be brought up with dreams of adopting the good old western way of life. Nothing adds up.
. The rarer the resources, the more highly technical their extraction becomes, it doesn't only consume more energy, it consumes more brains and facilities. The easy to extract materials in easy to exploit mines are gone for most of them : maintaining extraction will become even more sensible to political instability and energy costs. And for the next hundreds millions of years, Earth won't be offering anymore easy access to hydrocarbons and metals to the beings coming next (except occasional lumps of mixed nuclear waste here and there, perhaps).

(5) - False hopes ?
. Generic mistake of confusing reserves and resources. it's not because there is something under the ground that you'll always be able to extract it
. « As prices raise, extraction will become economically viable again ». Untrue. Prices can't raise too high or they kill either demand or customers, activity won't keep on with high prices, it's the activity that will stop or slow down when reaching certain prices. And there's also the energy cost of extraction, if you spend 2000 joules of energy to extract 1000 joules from the ground, you're doing it wrong (cf the line below).
. Kerogen : falsely promising areas like the kerogen oil shales like America's Green River are a mere illusion, extracting oil from this would consume more energy than it does produce energy. Same deal for uranium in sea water.
. Fission nuclear reactors : funnily, uranium's depletion is a reality, and MOX raises meltdown risks and damages while not bringing much added reserves. As for breeder reactors, there might be a reason why France gave up on it and Japan : it might work someday, but there's no telling if it will really work, and when, and then it would take several decades to spread largely enough, raising then urgent questions about global security and threats to the environment (do you imagine a breeder plant in a warzone ?). Lastly, thorium reactors might delay the problem, but delay it only, each time their reaction is relaunched it consumes a lot of uranium to start up the reaction.
. fusion nuclear reactors : fusion reactors just don't even work in labs, it's only parts of them are are in testing in small scale units for labs, and the closest we can get fusion reactors to work if EVERYTHING proceeds fine will be in 60 years.
. cold fusion is nothing but sci-fi apparently, and Andrea Rossi's E-cat looks like a giant hoax sadly, that guy's been telling several contradictory versions and been caught liying all around on various topics
. maintaining our level of energy consumption, but based on renewable sources : not doable, and if it were doable, we'd risk running short on some metals in the medium term

(6) - Ways to make it less dramatic ?
. reduce waste
. stop buying useless shit
. bring industries closer to the customers, produce food consumed locally
. stop making children
. buy more expensive products going to last longer
. encourage companies to produce better products that will last longer in order to reduce products turnover (for fuck's sake, cf http://grist.org/business-technology/2011-11-11-is-your-stuff-falling-apart-thank-walmart/ )

(7) - Will the chapter (6) be enough to avoid the real shit ?
. no
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