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Michel Alexandre Salim (Arcane Hexed Mill)
Works at Fedora Project
Attended Indiana University Bloomington
Lives in Jakarta, Indonesia
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A bit dated but the argument still holds. Tagging to start my economics collection
 
Irresponsible or unavoidable borrowing?

Growing up in Europe, I didn't pay much attention to the construction of the Euro, and whatever little I remember has nothing to do with the economics of it. Now, older, having lived in the US for a while, with a Greek wife, I'm looking at the way the Euro is unraveling and I've been using the opportunity to try to figure out how it works (or, rather, why it doesn't).

The core mechanism that allows multiple states to share the same currency is pretty simple: since the weaker states can't devalue their currency to compensate for their trade deficit with the stronger ones, money has to flow from the stronger economies to the weaker ones in order to maintain the balance.

We see that in the US: as measured in GDP per capita, there's about a 2:1 ratio between the strongest states and the weakest ones. To compensate for that, a lot of money flows between states, through the federal government. Most taxes in the US are federal taxes, i.e. about 75%, and the federal government doesn't necessarily spend the money it collects in the exact states where it collects them. As an example, every year about 130 billion dollars paid by California in federal taxes don't make it back into California. Texas and New York are the two other states that have a negative balance of more than 100 billion each. For those 3 states, that outflow on money represents 5.7%, 7.2% and 7.4% of their respective GDPs. California is literally sending money to other states so that those states can buy California stuff. The same is true for Texas, New York, and about 20 of the 50 states that are sending money to the other 30.

Looking back in history, the Marshall Plan followed a somewhat similar logic: the US sent aid to Europe, to allow Europeans to buy US goods, which was both a stabilizing mechanism for European currencies that otherwise were in a devaluation spiral, and an outlet for the huge US industrial production. For reference, the Marshall Plan amounted to 120 billion dollars (in today's dollars) over 4 years, which is tiny compared to the amount of money that the federal government now redistributes across state lines.

We can compare that to the situation in the Eurozone/EU, where the GDP per capita varies by a factor of about 2.3:1. Germany's balance in the EU budget is negative by less than 9 billion Euros. France's and Italy's follow at approximately 6.5 billion and 6 billion. Germany's 9 billion Euros is tiny compared to California's 130 billion dollars, especially since Germany's GDP is 60% larger than that of California. Since the US and EU economies have approximately the same size, that's a reasonably apples-to-apples comparison. The biggest negative balance that a Eurozone country has with the EU is about 0.41% of its GDP. The biggest positive balance is 1.3%. Within the US, only 4 states out of 50 fall within that range.

That's the problem right there: Germany is not flowing enough money out to other Eurozone countries to compensate for its own very strong economy. That's true of other rich European countries as well, e.g. Netherlands, Austria, France.

From the Greek point of view, the only way to get that money to flow in order to maintain balance had been for the government to borrow. That wasn't irresponsible borrowing. That was mechanical, predictable. Greece's poor historical discipline around government finances only accelerated an unavoidable process, but it's not a root cause.

In fact, predictably, pushing Greece into austerity made things worse, much worse: with the root cause being Greece's relatively weak economy compared to the rest of the Eurozone, an austerity approach can only put Greece in a position where it needs even more money to flow in in order to maintain balance.

Even if we assume that all of Greece's debts get somehow forgiven with no further constraints and that Greece manages to run a balanced government budget, it would still be in an unsustainable position in the current Eurozone as its weaker economy would force additional money to flow in. Unless the Eurozone very significantly increases the amount of money that it redistributes across borders, Greece should get out of the Euro at the first opportunity, i.e. literally Monday morning, July 6.

Worse, with Greece out, it's only a matter of time for another weak country to find itself in the same position: that might be Portugal, Spain, Italy, or if Bulgaria, Romania or even Hungary join quickly enough that might go through that same death spiral quickly enough to see the Eurozone as a revolving door, with barely enough time to come in before being back out.

Once that first batch of weak countries is out, there'll always be more that'll be at the bottom of the scale and will find themselves in the same position. France is comfortably in the middle of the pack within Europe today, but attrition will eventually push it toward the bottom, and France having to leave the Euro is a true nightmare scenario for everyone.

In order for the Eurozone to survive, its rich members will need to send a lot more money to the poorer ones: the rich ones literally can't continue reaping benefits from a currency based on the European average without sharing those benefits with the poorer ones that bring that European average down. Otherwise, the Euro will consume country after country until it hits a country that is literally too big to fail.
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Oh, audiophiles...

via +Ars Technica  #debunking   #pseudoscience  
But pre-set expectations and testing questions make us wonder about our results.
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Though it turns out there are differences between cheap Chinese imports and proper cables - the tested +Amazon.com branded Cat6 cable didn't measure up to Cat5e specs

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2015/07/340-audiophile-ethernet-cable-gets-a-marginal-pass-on-the-test-bench/

tag +Diky Mulyana 
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Rule of thumb : US proposed trade deal, oppose it. It's bad even for other developed countries, let alone for emerging and developing ones
 
The US is currently hosting what could potentially be the final round of TPP negotiations: https://goo.gl/g30hnY

TPP could be impacting on health initiatives, food labelling, cost of medicines and copyright law, but Australian consumers are still being kept in the dark about the deal!

Tell the Government to ‪#‎ReleaseTheText‬ before it's too late HERE: choice.good.do/tpp
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I'm beginning to see the darker meaning behind the Dogma movie's joke that Jesus was black...
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People never learn. Just be white and you won't have any issues. 
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Cute, though I'm more a Howard/Leonard fan myself
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+Michel Alexandre Salim don't worry, the N collection is encrypted :)
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Put the keyboard into claims. Easy ain't it?
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Now, once the Indonesian database is up to date
 
Do you ever find yourself trying to avoid long lines or wondering when is the best time to go grocery shopping, pick up coffee or hit the gym (hint: avoid Monday after work)? You’re in luck!

Now, you can avoid the wait and see the busiest times of the week at millions of places and businesses around the world directly from Google Search. For example, just search for "Blue Bottle Williamsburg", tap on the title and see how busy it gets throughout the day. Enjoy your extra time!
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Excellent visual representation of the GOP's progression over time.
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Sysadmin Appreciation Day coming up in 3 days!
 
Some see a string of characters and symbols, SysAdmins see a big MAC. Confused? Ask your SysAdmin. Via @GoogleforWork 

#SysAdminDay 
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Work
Occupation
DevOps Engineer
Skills
database administration, system administration, Linux, Unix, Clojure, Java, Python, SQL
Employment
  • Fedora Project
    Contributor, 2005 - present
  • Traveloka
    Head of DevOps, 2015 - present
  • PT. Centra Global Investama
    Manager of Information Systems, 2014 - 2015
  • RS Mitra Keluarga Group
    Assistant Manager, Corporate IT, 2013 - 2014
  • RS Mitra Keluarga Group
    IT Supervisor, 2012 - 2013
  • Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
    Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter, 2010 - 2012
  • Indiana University Bloomington
    Associate Instructor, 2004 - 2009
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Currently
Jakarta, Indonesia
Previously
Nürnberg, Deutschland - Strasbourg, France - Singapore - Shrewsbury, United Kingdom - Cambridge, United Kingdom - York, United Kingdom - Bloomington, Indiana, United States
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IT Manager, cross-platform software developer, Unix and FLOSS aficionado
Bragging rights
Had a perfect landing for my first skydive
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Education
  • Indiana University Bloomington
    Computer Science, 2004 - 2007
  • University of York
    Computer Science, 2000 - 2003
  • University of Cambridge
    Medical Sciences, 1999 - 2000
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Apps with Google+ Sign-in
  • Yatse
  • 0h n0
  • Ministry of Silly Walks
  • Transmission
  • 0h h1
  • Empires and Allies
  • Plague Inc.
  • Unium
  • Set of Threes
  • AdVenture Capitalist
  • Set
Went downhill in recent years. Too crowded and there's nothing to do but eat. Bad parking availability too. Nearby Kemang Village is much better.
Public - 9 months ago
reviewed 9 months ago
Delightful hors d'oeuvres, though the tenderloin was... lacking in tenderness
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
36 reviews
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The most authentic Spanish restaurant in Jakarta by far, serving a wide range of pintxos and tapas, as well as larger dishes such as paella. Came for brunch and would have to go back with a larger group to cover more of the menu!
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
Overpriced, badly prepared (though decently plated) food and drink, overly loud music with thumping bass reminiscent of a cheap club. This place banks only on its location on top of Jakarta's tallest building. If you're not an impressionable yuppie, avoid this place.
Public - 2 years ago
reviewed 2 years ago
This mall has thrived amidst the ever-changing whims of Jakarta's upper-middle classes for over two decades - and no surprise, catering to most tastes, with everything from secluded bookstores to elegant boutiques to food outlets and cinemas
Public - 3 years ago
reviewed 3 years ago