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Michael McElroy
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Dear Future President Giant Baby Man: Eli Bosnick would like a word.

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Since I originally posted this, here's how things have changed:

Clinton +187 pledged delegates
Sanders +56 PDs

Clinton +29 superdelegates
Sanders +7 SDs

There are 121 undecided SDs and 714 PDs remaining, for a total of 835.

Clinton needs 26 delegates of any kind to get a majority (i.e., 2383 total) and clinch the nomination. Sanders needs 817.

In other words, it isn't even enough for Sanders to win 100% of the vote in every remaining primary. He would still need 103 more SDs. He would need to win 100% of the vote in every remaining primary and get 85.1% of the remaining SDs - which simply is not going to happen.
As of 12:20 this morning, these are the counts:
Clinton superdelegates: 519
Sanders SDs: 39
Undecided SDs: 157
Total decided SDs: 558
Clinton pledged delegates: 1,622
Sanders PDs: 1,282
Total remaining PDs: 1,147 (there are 4051 total)

This means:

Current gap, excluding SDs: 340 (29.6% of total remaining PDs)

Current gap, including SDs: 820 (71.5% of total remaining PDs)

Gap with all decided and undecided superdelegates split evenly: each has 357, gap is 340 (29.6% of total remaining PDs - the same as the current gap excluding SDs)

Gap with decided SDs, plus undecided superdelegates split evenly: each gets 78 more, gap is 820 (71.5% of total remaining PDs - the same as the current gap including SDs)

Let's be really generous and say that this is the scenario that happens - that the current SDs stay where they are, and the unpledged ones split half and half. That puts the counts up to (total, PD+SD):

Clinton: 2,219

Sanders: 1,399

To eke out a win over Clinton, with a gap of just 1 delegate, Sanders would have to win 984 of the remaining PDs (giving him 2,383 total PD+SD):
Sanders: 1,399 + 984 = 2,383
Clinton: 2,219 + (1,147 - 984) = 2,219 + 163 = 2,382

In other words, given a generous split of the remaining superdelegates, and without a substantial shift in superdelegates, Sanders would have to win 85.8% of the remaining delegates - in 11 proportional elections. Even just 1% less than that in any one of those elections means he only gets 983 delegates, and he loses the contest for the nomination by 1 delegate.

The math is solid here. As much as I like Bernie... it's not happening. We need to be realistic.

That's why, this November, I'm voting Not Trump, Cruz, Or Kasich.

The progress we've made as a country, and the future of the Supreme Court, are just too important to risk over a desire to split the party, or cast a pointless write-in vote, or protest by not voting.

If you're thinking of making a symbolic vote out of principle, remember that real people could have their rights and health affected by the outcome of the election.

As of 12:20 this morning, these are the counts:
Clinton superdelegates: 519
Sanders SDs: 39
Undecided SDs: 157
Total decided SDs: 558
Clinton pledged delegates: 1,622
Sanders PDs: 1,282
Total remaining PDs: 1,147 (there are 4051 total)

This means:

Current gap, excluding SDs: 340 (29.6% of total remaining PDs)

Current gap, including SDs: 820 (71.5% of total remaining PDs)

Gap with all decided and undecided superdelegates split evenly: each has 357, gap is 340 (29.6% of total remaining PDs - the same as the current gap excluding SDs)

Gap with decided SDs, plus undecided superdelegates split evenly: each gets 78 more, gap is 820 (71.5% of total remaining PDs - the same as the current gap including SDs)

Let's be really generous and say that this is the scenario that happens - that the current SDs stay where they are, and the unpledged ones split half and half. That puts the counts up to (total, PD+SD):

Clinton: 2,219

Sanders: 1,399

To eke out a win over Clinton, with a gap of just 1 delegate, Sanders would have to win 984 of the remaining PDs (giving him 2,383 total PD+SD):
Sanders: 1,399 + 984 = 2,383
Clinton: 2,219 + (1,147 - 984) = 2,219 + 163 = 2,382

In other words, given a generous split of the remaining superdelegates, and without a substantial shift in superdelegates, Sanders would have to win 85.8% of the remaining delegates - in 11 proportional elections. Even just 1% less than that in any one of those elections means he only gets 983 delegates, and he loses the contest for the nomination by 1 delegate.

The math is solid here. As much as I like Bernie... it's not happening. We need to be realistic.

That's why, this November, I'm voting Not Trump, Cruz, Or Kasich.

The progress we've made as a country, and the future of the Supreme Court, are just too important to risk over a desire to split the party, or cast a pointless write-in vote, or protest by not voting.

If you're thinking of making a symbolic vote out of principle, remember that real people could have their rights and health affected by the outcome of the election.

Preview of tonight's debate:

[Donald Trump] "I don't believe Ted Cruz is a citizen."

[Ben Carson] "I don't believe Ted Cruz is a mammal."

[Ted Cruz] "I don't believe in the theory of biological speciation."

"People that work for me, just the other day, two years old, two and a half years old, their child, their beautiful child, went to have the vaccine and came back and a week later got a tremendous fever, got very very sick, now is autistic."

The Republican frontrunner, a grown adult capable of independent thought, last night, on live TV.

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YEAH SCIENCE. YEAH SPACE. YEAH PLUTO.
Pluto has sent a love note back to Earth via our New Horizons spacecraft, which has traveled more than 9 years and 3+ billion miles. This is the last and most detailed image of Pluto sent to Earth before the moment of closest approach, which was at 7:49 a.m. EDT today. Images from the #PlutoFlyby will be processed and released on Wednesday, July 15. More to come! 
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