5 Thoughts After a Quick Review of KPCB's Internet Trends Deck
#1 - Slowing growth of mobile suggests we're reaching an age of maturity (especially in US + Europe). I don't think this will limit ongoing investment in mobile, but I do think there are a lot of overly optimistic estimates about the degree to which mobile will actually replace desktop/laptop behaviors.
#2 - Continuing growth (though slowed) of desktop usage, web usage, and mobile web usage (vs. mobile app usage) suggests to me that mobile isn't "eating desktop" or "eating web," but rather, it's eating all the other times in our lives. We haven't stopped surfing the web, or using our laptops and desktops, but we've stopped having 10 minutes of downtime with nothing to do at the bus stop. Mobile has eaten downtime.
#3 - I'm shocked at how far print advertising still has to fall. I thought by now, the ad world would have been closer to usage patterns. I'm not at all shocked that mobile advertising hasn't caught up to usage. It's both new and far more challenging to get right without angering/annoying users.
#4 - It's amazing the degree to which content is shared and then immediately forgotten. I smell opportunity here. Not everything published yesterday, last week, last year, or last decade is now useless (as search proves to us). Part of me thinks social sharers have just built a culture of only sharing the "new," and that this won't always be the case.
#5 - The inclusion of a few data sources surprised me (particularly the Shareaholic social media traffic numbers), and made me question how accurate parts of the report I'm less familiar with might be.
The original can be found here: http://s3.amazonaws.com/kpcbweb/files/85/Internet_Trends_2014_vFINAL_-_05_28_14-_PDF.pdf?1401286773
and is an excellent resource.
p.s. Also shocking, but not a huge takeaway, is the insulting non-inclusion of Microsoft on slide 138. Tripadvisor makes the cut, and it's smaller than MS's revenue from several of its web properties :-)