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Fun to see some results from the 2012 Republican primary that shows Google searches are a good predictor! Try looking at query volume graphs yourself on some things you care about at (type in two brands, for example):
http://www.google.com/insights/search/
Google search trends were almost as accurate as polls in reflecting each event's winners.
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96 comments
 
Someone needs to develop a secure method for online voting. hint hint.
ho da
 
where is my gooder ? :(
 
America gave you Google. We hate our politicians too.
ho da
 
but we miss gooder michael . sorry for spam
 
I have actually thought about this before, I am sure there are some serious insights into many important events that search trends and negative / positive sentiment can show. I believe that this data, if correctly analyzed could also be predictive too.
 
+Larry Page unfortunately, its not a predictor which candidate would be best for the user. an #google #election decision tool would be cool.

ie. the user gets 10-20 questions. for every question there sould be multiple possible answers to choose from. every answer should come with a description of pro and contra. after the user has answered the questions, the best candidate to elect will be presented.

in austria we have http://wahlkabine.at/ for this purpose. another posibility is http://glassbooth.org/
 
I'm expecting someone to try to make the case of Google being behind the bad results of their candidates in the election through search manipulation, again.
 
+Sahin günsür So what backwoods country do you come from? Its entirely likely its not known for great technological advancement.
 
It is scary to see the amount of power Google has. They know everything. A dream come true for totalitarian regimes.
 
Just did it with both of the names I use, interesting results. Learned something about myself and social public info. Apparently, I was popular in 2005!
Checked a few other things as well. Cool tool, thanks.
 
did you measure the pure search trends against the prediction markets, those tend to be even more accurate as far as I know...
 
Actually those search queries express interest of people in certain candidates. Santorums name for example is very interesting. Around the IOWA caucus the Colbert Report and The Daily Show joked about the prank on a daily basis. I bet you could probably even correlate the two via that tool.
 
+Johann Dirry The CBC (Canada's publicly owned news media company) created a similar tool for our last election as well. It was a great idea as it provided an easy way for the public to get a better understanding of which party's platform most closely associated with each individual's personal values. Not the best way to get political knowledge but certainly better than nothing.
 
I find the Insights tool a fascinating study of correlation vs. causation. For instance, we can learn that the Fourth of July causes cucumbers (not):
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22fourth%20of%20july%22%2Ccucumber%20&cmpt=q

Or that labor causes turkeys (not):
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=labor%2Cturkey&cmpt=q

Or that global warming causes Beyonce (definitely not):
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22global%20warming%22%2C%22Beyonce%22&date=1%2F2005%2042m&cmpt=q
 
+Michael Pierce I agree with you 100% - this is an issue I've been thinking about this years. IMHO online voting is by far the best way to improve the dismal voter turnout we've seen for the past decades (both in Canada and the US). If we can submit our taxes online then why can't we cast our ballot in the same way?
 
+Patrick Lafond by App would be good way to vote you log in register your app an vote by computer or phone.
 
Larry, I would like to know the political preference of all search engine's majority of users. Now that I have thought about this post more, I see you are just baiting Obama's billion dollar slush fund to get more targeted political ad spending since ad sales dropped 8% in Q4. Keep up the good work!
 
+Robert Martin App or webfront.. obv secured/encrypted - hosted by gov (or paid 3rd party, to keep Free-Market Capitalist from complaining) - few weeks before the election you receive a unique passcode from the service provider (like we do for the electronic tax filing system). User id is tied to SIN/SSN.
+Stephan Gensch The fact that voting machines are unsafe and are still being used is a reason to promote an innovative/improved process (not the opposite). If a government can trust the 'internet' for tax collection, maintaining my contact information, paying parking tickets, etc.. then why can it not be done for voting?

I certainly can't think of any technological limitations - none which would introduce more 'risk' than the current voting machines or 'proxy voting' process (mailing your paper ballot because you currently are not able to attend the designated voting area - ie. student living outside the state/country).
 
This would stop voters being left out. No lost votes the software would hold you vote even after the vote is done in case of lost data. It would be lock in.
 
+Patrick Lafond I surely see and understand the benefits you mentioned and I agree there are ways to achieve this in a manner where it might look safe to do so. Unfortunately, this system safety is uncertain, whereas 'personal' voting still achieves the highest security scores from all other ways of voting, even postal votes do.
 
Why is Ron Paul not wining then? Big chuck of GOP primary voters (Seniors) in SC, FL and Iowa are not all into internet it matters because their voting% is pretty high in their age group; Ron Paul is most searched than Newt in SC and he is also most searched than Romney in FL and than Santorum in Iowa...
 
If the results continue to hold true, than the awesome unsaid consequence is that Google could be used as an independent observer and predictor of RIGGED elections.
 
Hell they can predict whatever they please, or statistics prove what you want to prove. We are in a important election and its not a game who's
predictions are then best, its like the weather always changing. Its what
is important to get someone elected who knows what he or she now's what there doing, that counts So predict what want and hope for the best for all of us..
 
I absolutely think this is very true Google search insight could give you a good idea on which candidate is more popular.
 
Of course, the most popular candidate does not always win.
 
Correlation is not causation. That being said, Alex phan's comment of using this Google data as a sign of potential voter fraud is a great idea worthy of more thought and discussion.
 
In Soviet Russia government votes you....literally.
 
I bet that the only reason Florida wasn't accurately predicted by Google's search activity was because old people don't even know what Google is!
 
This is what I wrote in 2008, as quoted by +Bruce Sterling on his +WIRED blog:

“Google rank will become a political argument. *Instead of saying “this is why I am right” political leaders will say “type ‘Iraq war’ in google and look at how my speech comes up first*”. Google will be perceived as the ultimate organizer of relevance, and as nobody can control it it will provide the needed crowdibility (that’s a new word I just made up) politicians have lost. If you are on top of google you are right, and you are right because the population put you there."

http://www.wired.com/beyond_the_beyond/2008/01/laurent-haugs-e/
 
Our auto-completion still suggests "Romney can't win", "Romney can't beat Obama" before "Romney can beat Obama".
 
Almost as accurate as =/= better than
 
What's the new things in Google insights, Larry ?
 
That is alot of awesome accuracy.
 
So, you can predict our future! what else you did up to now?
 
such skills! and yet, you can't do something as simple and good as leaving the chamber of commerce.. pretty pathetic, and evil, if you ask me
 
I think the power of Google is huge amount of information (data), which is stored on its servers. Second , but not less important is the congenial search algorithm, which comes form Sergei Brin's research. Google became the #1 search engine not overnight. This was a long process, in which the army of Google people worked as ants to improve the results. Now Google has the opportunity to combine the power of people's minds and the latest technology, in which it invests very heavily.
 
Google makes infomation available for all the world,that's the great point!
 
If it's true then there are will be a lot of cats and singing dogs in the Republican party.
 
Hi Larry, will you be buying shares from Mr. Z? How about Serge?
 
Larry I am considering setting Bing to my homepage because I like the educational picture.
 
Oh man. They had that little tab in the corner. I actually did it.
 
Oh man... their button is broken for Chrome.
Ken Ash
 
Internet security is a joke at this moment in time. Maybe someday online voting will be a possibility, however I think that will be a few decades away.
 
There has been ways and means to vote on line for some time now, however, the politicians do not want you to have this technology, due to the fact that you might actually vote.
 
Hello Larry !

It is not a comment for Your publication, but...

I'm CEO of innovative company and as a subsidiary of one of biggest personal data collector and pan-European system of information exchange on business entities.
We have a some patents between other for: technical aspects at rifd documents, copyrights, information systems for data exchange, etc.

One of solutions (I have a hope to present You) is a system which could to let go out Google outside of virtual world and start be "visible" and "touchable" everywhere.
You and Sergey as a network leaders - represents this type of activity which could be interested our vision of connection between social network and real world ...and control/verify its authenticity.

Hope for Your answer.

Best regards,
Piotr
 
CREATIVE KIT it's far far away from PICNIK...especially if you are a premium subscriber as I am..if you really care about users, don't shut down this amazing editing program...otherwise make your creative kit able to recreate all the great effects picnik was able to do!!! Listen to us... don't think only to push up Google+ ;o)
 
啥不说了~羡慕嫉妒恨
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Larry you realize YouTube view counts and likes go backwards on Ron Paul vids? Just FWI
 
+Randy Woodward ron pauls ideas are religious based and not rational. therefore i hope for you that he will not get elected. greez from europe.
 
Is there a dummie down version on how to use this search trend site to some advantage for the average web surfer?
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